Member Info for SeplatWinner

Sure, but that's also why I didn't quote Akipur nor called them a party in this matter.

The only parties in this matter are Kurdistan/Erbil, Turkey and Irak/Baghdad.

Turkey and Iraq issue is solved. I can't proof it, but I think the Baghdad and IOCs discussions are near finalization as well (i.e. the IOCs agree on terms). I believe the last wall to fall is Kurdistan realizing the money flow will go through Baghdad/SOMO going forward. Inevitable.

One (of many) problems with this article is the last sentence:

"The groups from time to time hint that a new deal for resumption is imminent, but the last few updates on the subject from the parties involved suggest that a deal is still not near."

This is objectively wrong. So let's take a look at the latest (30 days) comments on "all parties involved":

16-Feb (Kurdistan politician): "Very delicate.. At this point even the smallest mis-step "could impact" the situation. "

16-Feb (Iraq O&G Parliamentary leader): It is likely to resume oil exports in a month or two months'

13-Feb (Iraq Oil Minister): "PROGRESS IN TALKS WITH INTERNATIONAL OIL COMPANIES OPERATING IN IRAQI KURDISTAN, EXPRESSING OPTIMISM ABOUT RESOLVING A LONGSTANDING DISPUTE THAT HAS HALTED NORTHERN OIL EXPORTS."

7-Feb (Iraq ambassador in New York, at the UN): "Every effort will be made to resume oil exports from the Kurdistan Region through the World Pipeline"

19-Jan (Iraq PM) "Council of Ministers working on assessment of changes to budget, so they can pay IOCs. They have an issue with cost of oil production. Negotiations ongoing to resolve issues, but no official agreement yet"

So, of all the public messages from "all parties" all of them leans to a reopening except only one - which we received yesterday. Funny enough the only objection to a opening was from the Kurdish side. One could argue it's a tactic.

I believe the last discussions are about the IOCs and Baghdad. Kurdistan's ability to sway here is coming lower by the day.

One thing that is rarely talked about, but probably equals 30-50p in a DCF, is that new PIA tax regime (that Seplat already applied for) works out as seen in the earlier drafts of the proposal. Probably Nigerian speed on this subject as well, but as it's not priced in a see it as a bonus.

Link: https://i.imgur.com/d8rdYZC.png

Wow, +200 000 shares at 143-145p in short notice. Someone wants in, and wants to come in a hurry.

Limit up +9% in Lagos yesterday, but tanked -5% in UK. Hmmm

Herminator,

The link provided by SeaTank8300 is to a video with a interview made 2 days ago, not 2021. The 2021 that you saw was a reference to an event previous to the aforementioned one.

Great interview btw. I'm feeling more confident MPNU is in the bag.

Added 5k here - the dividends alone meet my hurdle rate lol

Lagos and London, 3rd January 2024: Seplat Energy Plc is pleased to announce that the ANOH gas plant installation works reached mechanical completion on 29th December 2023, in line with the revised timetable.

Go ahead sir

Finally an analyst understanding what a real game-changer ANOH is:

ANOH should add over US$50m to Upstream gross profit and

generate operating cash flow of over US$70m. In addition, we forecast a

dividend to Seplat from the AGPC JV of US$12m in 2025 rising to over

US$80m by the end of the decade. Overall, we estimate ANOH will add up to

cUS$100m pa in additional operating cash flow to the group from 2026 rising

to cUS$150m towards the end of the decade.

Here's a link to the full (+40 pages) research note on Seplat indicating +90% upside excl. of MPNU acquisition.

https://fromsmash.com/Seplat-Energy

Enjoy!

A friendly reminder that today's drawdown is because of ex-div (30c) and Chariot is getting blasted -20% because how Energean negotiated this deal. Cash is king, and Energean has lots of it.

I think this is the 5th or 6th time Tom has "sold out last week" and whenever the stock recovered "went back a couple of days ago".

Not confident it's true, nor very confident that type of irrational trading makes any money to talk about.

"there has been the SAME discount for ENTIRE two years"

That's objectively not true: the premium (converted to GBP) is the highest on record and I've benchmarked several years back. Link: https://i.imgur.com/1PJ3CWB.png

Todays trading of 2310 equals 2.29 GBP. The parallel market, which has always existed, is lower bit still a hefty premium.

I don't mind if anyone here doesn't invest in the shares - that's totally fine. However, I would appreciate a standard on the board where everyone at least stick to the facts. Bless.

The current +80% premium in the Lagos listing to the LSE listing is not only explained by "inflation & fx". For years and years (during inflation and falling FX) it traded at par, or near par.

While I agree with you that the local FX intervention in 2023 makes the official Naira look a bit overvalued, the black market rate was/is 1035 to the USD this week so it's still a hefty premium. I'm inclined to believe that local traders know something that we don't.

With today's news that Equinor are selling their assets we have three (3) super-majors that are engaging in fully legitimate transactions that all parties (seller, buyer, country) have agreed upon.

ENI

Equnior

Exxonmobil

I'd argue the risk that NNPC (via the state) strong-arms Exxonmobil into submission and agreeing upon a transaction outside of the original contract just to "please the state" is increasingly slim. Let's all keep in mind, NNPC/"the state" would lose any case in arbitration in a heart-beat: this is not a legal grey-area, it's very clear.

Energean mentioned as a Mediterranean champ in Financial Times, being essential to Israel for the coming decades.

Sad to see people selling out at 800p only 2 weeks ago. Congrats to everyone who resisted and held, or increased. :)

"Court awards Energean full Karish North rights worth $3.4b" Link: https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-court-awards-energean-full-rights-on-karish-north-1001463727

"How one gas producer kept Israel’s lights on" Link: https://www.ft.com/content/a45e366d-8193-4243-9ea5-a79db82f28dd

The more I read about the NNPC and its management team, the more certain I am that Seplat and Mr. Brown is in a much better negotiating position than pundits are suggesting.

The last three years NNPC failed, repeatedly, to meet production goals; financing deals falling through, co-operation with international players such as Chinese fell through, made headlines in the international investment community as to break-up and meddle with valid deals from majors such as Exxon. Vocalized an IPO (thus cash injection) that has been postponed 3-4 times by now, and no end in sight. And on it goes.

Nah, I'd say the Nigerian government understands that not only does it _not_ hold legal grounds to block the Exxon sale, but also NNPC being the sole operator of these fields is probably not the best setup for their own long term interests. Honestly, I find it hard to even see a IPO being achievable if NNPC/Nigeria is in the middle of a arbitration process, lack of global investor trust, rug-pulled a major oilco etc.

https://thewillnews.com/exclusive-in-desperate-bid-to-remain-in-office-mele-kyari-fast-tracks-ipo-for-nnpc/

Sorry for the rant. Have a good one, all :)

If someone wants to refresh their memory of the MPNU acquisition, here's the presentation held early last year: https://www.seplatenergy.com/media/wojc2c5e/seplat-acquisition-of-mpnu-presentation.pdf

Evidentially, production marginally lower today but overall a great - non dilutive - acquisition. Fingers crossed it works out as originally structured. Bless!

Is the Lagos listing trading at a 60% premium to the London listing? Has the difference ever been this high? If memory serves me right, it was only 10-15% 2 years ago.