Member Info for SeplatWinner

Some interpretation of the dates:

Link 1: https://pastes.io/capd-1

Link 2: https://pastes.io/capd-2

Are there any legal references, especially in the context of Australia, where the announcement date is inside the conditions - but the agreement became null void because of the court date?

Featured in the latest Inside Mining Magazine: https://insideminingmag.com/magazine/

I know how to calculate these steps and I envision +$60m (somewhat below GKPs own semi-guiding) and ca. $190m in 2025 in a reopening scenario and what GKP stated for what's needed to keep current production levels.

2026 and onwards will be an investment-year and lets also remember GKP hit 55kbop/d a couple of weeks before the ITP closed.

100k bop/d is probably a couple of years out, and I wouldn't want to see that investment before we have a good solution with KRG/Iraq.

$50m per year in a reopening scenario and $70/b realized price?

Back in 2021, a mediocre production year (lower than now) and with a low realized price of $47/b GKP managed to earn $122m in net profit. Back in 2022, with a production similar to now and with a realized price of $74/b GKP managed to earn $225m in net profit. Currently, GKP implicitly guides for $5m in FCF per month i.e. $60m per year.

Can you give me the steps to this permanent $50m earnings per year in a reopening scenario? I can't see it as the CRP is substantial were it is now and, perhaps most importantly, won't get depleted as capex is being done (and will be done).

We're currently making over $70m FCF annually (after CAPEX & OPEX) at $27/b. Enterprise value sits at $229m i.e. we're paying approx. 3.5x ev/fcf. When the pipeline opens - we're making over $200m annually as previous years.

As seen by DNO last week, a low or depleted CRP have some but not major impact on the results. Lets also keep in mind that GKP CRP equals approx. 50% of enterprise value (!) and, as with DNO, can grow again if investments are executed on. How anyone can call this fully valued at these levels, is beyond my understanding.

PUTUP,

I have asked you four (4) times and you have dodged the question every single time: what's your net profit assumption for 2025 under the following scenario:

- Exports open

- 45kbp/d (current levels)

- $70 realized oil price

- Current CRP

Since you told me 4-5 times to "read up on CRP" while dodging the question, I'm also giving you the floor and to tell us the results with the aforementioned parameters combined with a depleted CRP.

(Since you've made a DCF, surely you have these numbers?)

I do believe you're knowledgeable and some of your input is OK to decent, what I don't like - however - is that you called it fully valued at 92p two months ago; and was seen yesterday taking victory laps here on the board for holding it up to 130p. You're an influential writer on this ticker and some people might very well have sold on your fully valued call back at 92p. I do expect each and everyone of us to act the way we talk. (I'm long, that has been clear from day 1).

Please don't dodge this one (again).

Setting the receivables at zero (0), the share is now trading at 3.9x ev/fcf with exports closed and realized oil price at $27/b.

"Asymmetric reward to risk is a concept in investing that explains a situation where the potential gains from an investment are far greater than the potential losses. In other words, the risk of taking a slight loss is worth the potential substantial profits. Finding asymmetric reward to risk scenarios in the stock market is the holy grail."

200p within short gents, just wait and see.

How come Putup, theoryman and BroadfordBay are all active - and are all inactive - on the same hours?

Such a coincidence, for months over months...

Thx Alex

MPNU in the bag and $400-500m in net profits next year i.e. p/e 2.5x

Look like we're in final negotiations now gents.

The Iraqi Oil Minister says that the only thing left to do is to agree on the cost of production and transportation of Kurdistan oil. Regarding natural gas, he said Kurdistan gas is 30% cheaper than imported from Iran.

"We are ready to produce and immediately export [the Kurdistan Region's] oil, which will benefit the Kurdistan Region, oil companies and the Iraqi state," Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani told US television channel Al-Hurra.

Not what I argued, was it? Traders buying from DNO/SNM/GKP have different end markets (and yes, they also sell some volume directly to refiners). Last week, DNO stated that the selling price was up +10% QoQ locally. Can't explain that by looking at prices for Diesel in Iraq, can we?

Again, another pretty outrageous comment said with outmost confidence.

First, we know that traders take a substantial of volume from DNO/GKP/SNM and truck it abroad: their ability to price (bid) depends on their ability to sell it abroad.

Secondly, the refiners compete with other local sources of crude; and do you really argue that if that was priced at $120, they would still not pay a single cent more to GKP/DNO/SNM as if local prices was at $40?

To say it doesn't correlate 1:1 is fine, or to say it comes with a lag is fine - but to argue there's no correlation at all to international brent is ludicrous.

EIA link on pipelines: https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/countries_long/Iraq/iraq_bkgd.pdf

EIA pipeline info: page 5. It's the part going from Kirkuk to the border being repaired: if anything it adds incremental capacity.

Total capacity of 1.5 million of barrels per day to Turkey still stands, and Iraq and absolutely not Kirkuk can fill that anytime soon.

Furthermore, here's a presentation from SOMO in Germany last year: https://www.numov.de/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Oil-and-Gas-Sectors-In-Iraq-ver-16.pdf

Iraq is building, and planning to build, plenty of capacity throughout the country for exports.

Plenty of room for the IOCs to fill up their entire production imho.

What's important now is that Baghdad, KRI and IOCs settle on some contracts. Pipelines are a smoke screen.

From my understanding, both pipes (40" and 46") are fully working on the Turkey side. If Iraq now repairs the lines down to Kirkuk, one might assume they repair both the 40 & 46 thus the capacity is 1.6 million/d - plenty of capacity.

Here we go gents: https://www.iraqinews.com/iraq/iraqi-kurdistan-president-confirms-reaching-agreement-on-oil-exports/

Two years ago when Brent was at $80 (now $91) and GKP in $-30m net debt (now $+86 net cash) Stifel Research (non-paid research) attached a £361p target price on GKP (close to 20% (!) discount rate).

https://i.imgur.com/3OwxsA3.png

When the IOCs write their new PSCs with SOMO we get the same terms as Exxon/Total and the riskpremium cut in half. Furthermore, no more -15% discount on crude sold because it was from KRI, which no one wanted to touch besides Turkey.

A normal discount-rate and sector-peer multiples will put most target prices above 400p (IMHO).

PUTUP claiming GKP to be "drastically overvalued at 95p" provides me with a fantastic entry point, and will make for great comedy in a couple of months.

// Strong Buy since 91p (that's when I entered this part of the forum, if you look at my entire history).

Back to 150! Should be min. 200p excluding MPNU and 300p. including MPNU.

DNO today:

"Given shortages of heavier crudes in regional markets, DNO negotiated with its customers to nudge Tawke/Peshkabir prices to the mid-USD 30 per barrel level. DNO share of sales continue to be paid directly to the Company in advance of loadings."

Looks like a tight market. We're going up, gents.

DNO which had 'low $30s' as realized local prices in Q4, reports today that they have nudged up the prices to 'mid $30s' via negotiations.

Https://www-nrttv-com.translate.goog/detail/35707?_x_tr_sl=ckb&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=sv&_x_tr_pto=wapp

"The two Iraqi Oil Ministries and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) are in talks on their agreements on oil exports and the understandings are expected to have positive results in the near future. "The priority of the Iraqi government is to resolve the oil issue through legal and constitutional means and for this purpose they have met with Turkey to determine the transportation fee for a barrel of oil,"