Member Info for senseman

US & EU rushing to agree Russia oil price cap in response to Russia 300,000 mobilisation - oil could soar
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-oil-price-cap-g7-meeting-sanctions-ukraine-export-revenues-2022-9?utm_medium=ingest&utm_source=markets

Have begun to decease dramatically. This will continue. Supply pressure on market will tighten as this and other aspects begin to come into play.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-20/russian-oil-flows-dive-hurting-putin-s-war-chest
India & China are not taking enough to stop this. India's purchases lessening.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-India-Is-Suddenly-Buying-Less-Russian-Crude.html
Recession fears make Brent today $89. In the event of such, impending supply crunch will protect oil price considerably.. In my view will be more upward price pressures than downward.

we have 9 days for brent to rise from today's $90, or 1st 5 days of october will be next offload's price point and we will for the 1st time in months get a little disappointment smack with only circ $27-$28 mil from offload. no need for concern - last 2 offloads having been at $116 and $111 a barrel. plus another 1.33 offloads before end december. oil will rise so taking gloucs fair metric of taking $19 mill escrow cum account we are looking at circa $175 mill cash by end december.
am discounting epl cost as clever accounting will see hur investing most of liability into likely p8 but knock off $10 mill for reasonableness so $165 mill cash by end dec.
we are doing fine

brent will rise
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-20/aramco-says-global-oil-buffers-may-vanish-when-demand-recovers

didnt realise was that long. so day rate def matters 200K to 500K means 18 mill to 45 mill for 3 months. big difference

fellas - if P8 given go ahead, how long will HUR need hire a rig for?

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/444796/brent-crude-oil-price-200-bazooka/

energy voice on oil price

Given the timespan taken to negotiate the AM extension, if P8 is OK'd my concern would be salaried no-skin in the game chief execs taking for ever to hire the cheapest price rig just to save a few quid. And thus missing early 2023 drill and 2023 Q3 production startup and thus costing HUR many millions. They're stupid and lazy enough to argue that good housekeeping cost-saving a few quid is more important than speed and increased production millions. Have heard they take 30 mins to decide what type of biscuits to have at BoD meetings

Tiger
Fair point. Save that:-
1. CA owe PIs no favours. They aren't our mothers. They do what they say on the tin, and have always batted straight
2. Though any CA necessarily legitimate short-term interest decision may diverge slightly and understandably from PIs' longer term ultimate ideal interest it is (a) difficult to see how it could so diverge as to be construed as throwing us under a bus (save for selling HUR to Putin) (b) how one could criticize CA. They have been in HU for 10 yrs, saved the company from 95% dilution, and have own shareholders and risk element to consider. If they refused an y offer made now say at 15p when they are in a circa 6.7p, and next month well 6 went tits up and the SP crashed to 5p, what do they say to their shareholders?
Be fair, be reasonable, apply perspective. And please, don't argue the oil price as some magical saving grace. Last July I said oil would be 80 by end Dec 21 and 100 by Feb 22 (ie before any war was envisaged). The village idiot could have forecast that. As did CA - which is why they raised their stake to 28% post the court crap

Tiger
In my view the former now departed long serving co secretary, and long in place current CFO have always been the main bad guys. Whatever your view, the current CEO hasn't been in place long and was likely handed a hidden poisoned chalice, likewise the current Chair. The CEO and Chair have likely gone along with things for the easy salary & pension benefits (why not, how many of us are ethical noble?) I may be wrong. But I doubt so

Old - you have it wrong. The NOMAD stated if the CEO & CFO were replaced, it would walk. Then HUR would have had to find new CEO & CFO within 30 days or be delisted from AIM market. Immediately bondholders would have been back in court claiming x y z we now own company.
CA was HURs biggest investment so had to manage tightrope situation. Had to retain CEO & CFO. Hands largely tied until bonds repaid- only recently. Imperative was well 6 production till that done. Whilst waiting CA has strengthened BoD in it's favour. Then CA thrown curveball that must wind up CA by end 2023 (variable). CA have played blinder for HUR & us PIs. To date, can't be faulted

RG & Canny
The fall-back position of all 3 chief execs when questioned was that the BoD had relied on paid-for professional advice. I call a spade a spade and stated that was no explanation, for 2 reasons.
1. Advice was unneeded. it should never have been sought. If falling POO caused concern re bond repayment, but with then $60-$80 mill cash in bank bonds could be bought at 30c-40c in $, buying bonds at that value equated to selling oil at silly money and immediately removed bond repayment fear. A conclusion a reasonably intelligent 10-11 yr old would reach.
2. Most lawyers, bankers, financial advisors were *****s. If you paid them $17 mill with a promised $1 mill success fee and told them what you wanted in writing, they would provide it. The $17 mill pile of paper was toilet paper
The question why bonds were not bought at 30c-40c in S has never been addressed. Because there are only 2 answers (i) grand scale incompetence (ii) grand scale scam. There is no third alternative. My view is well known so I will not repeat it. Instead, I pose the fair question - what are the chances of a highly paid BoD experienced in the field not being collectively aware of that which a reasonably intelligent 10-11 yr old would be aware of?
All 3 chief execs repeated the 'the BoD relied on professional advice' mantra. Teflon Chair smiled enigmatically, Baffled CEO looked bemused, Shifty CFO looked shifty & embarrassed as if I had handed him a whotsit to chew on
No intelligible reason exists why bonds were not bought at 30c-40c in $ and company made instantly safe from bondholder predation

At the immediate post AGM chat I told Chair that BoD decisions (the 2021 debacle) had cost HUR $150-$180 million. He protested that it had only cost $17 mill (the legal/advisor/expert costs etc to prepare court case).
I said nnoooo!
(i) Add $50 mill over 3 yrs for not extending AK lease at $25K daily rate thus increasing it to $75K daily rate - when BoD were arguing that production had only 1 yr left - so 1 yr at $75K daily rate = same cost as signing off 3yr extension at 25K daily rate even if BoD July 22 production ceasing was correct. We're now paying 75K daily rate for 3 yrs and also by the way had to stump up extra $19 mill into escrow we wouldn't have had to
(ii) Add $80-$100 mill for not buying bonds at 30c-40c in $ (working out the capital and interest costs saving will make you weep).
So he could add $150 mill to the $17 mill court costs.
His eyes glazed over. He didn't have a clue what I was talking about
No skin in the game - ain't their money - they'll be happy to pay whatever rig going rate is when they finally shift their butts

Glouc - I like the sound of that - would square the circle even better, and deal with a certain niggle rattling my brain

Eloquent Times writer David Aaronovitch today cites Volodymyr Zelensky's Sunday's 11 Sept 115 word address to Russia as comparable to Lincoln's Gettysburg Address, writing.... '......his words were a Gettysburg Address for our times: a poetic, defiant sentiment which deserves to be repeated and remembered in decades to come.'
It merits dissemination on any public forum purely as that rare example of transcending eloquence all may appreciate. Should that not suffice, it may fairly be viewed as a metaphor for HUR's survival and rebirth against all odds. One asks that no one seeks this thread or post's removal

"Do you still think that we (Ukraine & Russia) are one nation?
Do you still think you can scare us, break us, force us to make concessions?
Have you really not understood anything?
Not understood who we are?
What we are for?
What we are talking about?

Read my lips.
Without gas and without you? Without you.
Without light and without you? Without you.
Without water and without you? Without you.
Without food and without you? Without you.
Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as frightening and deadly for
us as your friendship and brotherhood.

But history will out everything in it's place.
And we will be with gas, light, water and food.
And without you"

EU sanctions to lower Russia production
US shale can't cover position
Oil to rise
https://www.ft.com/content/bbea83fa-8580-46e5-b2e4-118ef632d12b
https://www.ft.com/content/ef4fb2b8-1b28-43f3-b34f-13e98c769e63

If oil drops to $80, Biden to refill US strategic reserves. Strong downside price floor
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-13/biden-officials-mull-buying-oil-at-around-80-to-refill-reserves

so in sensey's ideal world SP rises to 15p (or price CA paid), as fair value at sale time. then with active new 28% partner + P8 (or other valid plan) announced, SP rises a few pence more?

Glouc - that would square the circle. IF, say CA exited their 28% to a third party at say 15p (so CA derisked & happy), (i) how do you think SP would react upon the news? (ii) would HUR shares then be a hold, or a sell? (ii) would it hold at that level or soon fall back?. Or all just guesswork till it happens?

Dicky - it must drive the simple minded policeman mad reading posts of those he's supposed to have filtered but hasn't. imagine the temptation to break cover now and shoot me down. and now you also. we've both got a free pass from our stasi rezidentura to write with carefree joy and abandon....)

what a spoilsport someone is - i thought my erudite charming post re tv coverage of queen would last longer than 10 mins....)