Member Info for senseman

Opinions please on whether the below statement from RNS indicates $35 p.b prod cost includes 8% of gross sales money, or not? Fist half of para suggests it does, second half that it doesn't.
Cost of sales
'Cost of sales were $78.5 million, including $36.9 million of DD&A. Cash production costs (which exclude DD&A and accounting movements in inventory, but include the fixed lease charges for the Aoka Mizu) were $57.7 million, equivalent to $35.4/bbl versus $28.2/bbl for the full year 2021. The increase in cash production costs, on a per-barrel basis, is driven by lower average production rates and higher realised sales prices (increasing the revenue-linked incentive tariff payable). Excluding the revenue-linked incentive tariff, cash production costs increased from $22.8/bbl full year 2021 to $27.5/bbl in H1 2022. As production from the P6 well continues to decline naturally over time, cash production costs per barrel will increase given the largely fixed operational cost base. Cash production costs are currently forecast to be c. $34/bbl for the full year 2022 (excluding the incentive tariff)'

For various reasons, it is certain BW will leave AM in situ till P6 end economic production. It has always been certain (see kooba post ADVFN).
18 months ago CA opined (post analysis) P6 economically viable till Feb 25 or longer. My view is that with high oil will be 2026. Schlemmy has posted Laser (ADVFN) post re 2024 supply ships booking.

Listened to HUR 25 min Friday's 8.45 am presentation podcast. Unimpressed. Self congratulatory exercise. No explanation given for NSTA 'lack of comfort' statement. Only 2 end of presentation questions asked, by HUR NOMAD Stiffel. Both tame - (i) is production success due to HUR or BW (answer 60/40 - don't know which way round) (ii) will tax losses form part of any corporate deal, and would they be main deal or just pleasant 'sugar coating'. Answer 'pleasant sugar coating'. What is the point of 8.45am presentation post a 7.00am RNS, where SHs can't ask questions?

NB 3 million barrels forecast next 12 months from 30.09.22. Work out net profit from that with say $100 oil (fair guess), and add that to circa $98mill cash in bank from offload due next few days (production till say 07.10.22). Will give cash in bank 12 months from now + $19 mill escrow

I am perplexed the end picture seems:-
(i) Whilst gov have ordered NSTA to facilitate UK production, P8 would be refused operating permission
(ii) Whilst it is commonly accepted that despite P6 not having been ideally situated/drilled, it has(is) been a mega-well: and with now years of data amassed, as things stand it is to be the only well drilled on Lancaster. Defies common sense that remainder of Lancaster suddenly so economically barren.

Did CA opine to HUR 'for our own short-term reasons, we would prefer no P8'? (by the way, it would CA's right to opine such). And for once CA's desire mirror the instinctive wishes of our risk-averse, no skin in the game, safety first, high salaried, proven non-world-beating chief execs? So blaming the NSTA (with no specific reasons given), is the easily written RNS method utilised?

Since HUR's immediate future is inextricably linked to CA's, I encourage all to read yesterday's CA RNS's annual report (Google Crystal Amber chat), ping LSE link, go to RNS tab at top). Apart from illustrating how an annual (or 6 monthly) report should be written - see info/detail given, incl much on HUR - 2 specifics of note:-
(a) No 60p p.share dividend announced. CA wind-up target date end Dec 23 'relaxed', focus now on highest SH returns.
(b) P6 next 12 months (from 30.09.22) projected produce 3 million barrels

From HUR RNS (why didn't they announce no P8 separate & earlier given must have known minimum weeks earlier?), unless I read wrongly, production cost p.b of $35 is INCLUSIVE of 8% to BW (& $27 p.b non-inclusive). We (or most) have been calculating that profit is POO eg $100 - 8% BW take - $35 prod costs. Rather than POO eg $100 - $35 all in. Which may explain why we've all been pleasantly surprised by offload net profit figures.

By the way, as usual add healthy chunk to CEO figure $110 mill cash figure by end Dec. At $90 oil next offload is $29 mill profit. So 74 current + 29 = 103 mill. Early Dec offload add 30 mill = 133 mill. Less 5 mill EPL = 128 mill. Then add .4 in AM tanks by end Dec + 19 mill escrow

Disappointed no P8 (+ purported reason) & no other plan. If true, hard to think unknown at AGM so been strung along. Ambiguous, meaningless language:-....'the NSTA is UNABLE TO PROVIDE COMFORT' to the Company with regard to the likelihood of it being granted the necessary consents related to flaring for Hurricane to make further commitments to investment in Lancaster.'

Imagine an end conversation between CEO & NSTA head:-
CEO - 'You agree our P8 proposal meets all current criteria. And if we build the thing & apply for the operating permit shortly before start-up, you'll give it us. Could you pop that in an email to me?'
NSTA head - ' Can't do that, old boy. Mote than my jobs worth. Regs or gov may suddenly change. And we've given it the once over now but when application is submitted we examine things with a fine tooth comb. One of our guys may find then something we've missed now. And I've given you my current informal view based on info you've given we haven't verified. what You can't expect me commit something in writing now that you can waive in front of everyone next year if your application is refused for whatever reason.'
CEO - 'So you won't place in writing now that we will definitely be granted operating permit.'
NSTA - 'Sorry, old boy, no. You know it doesn't work like that'

There is world of difference between 'trying' and 'TRYING'. If HUR were satisfied P8 met all criteria, why does it not state the SPECIFIC REASON(S) the NSTA could 'not provide comfort'?

Before anyone kicks off, 2 points:-
1. Whether drilling P8 or not is a good idea, is a separate issue.
2. The current chief execs, espec 2of them, have SERIOUS PRIOR FORM. To the extent that reasonable entitlement is that nothing they write may be taken at face value.
(to be continued)

false alarm over on advfn by a few embarrassed ship watchers - no tanker at MM, just supply vessel. seemed funny, tanker not due for another 2 weeks.
apology for onwarding incorrect info - mea culpa. the advfn s/watchers rarely get it wrong

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyZhzpq2GdQ

this is tim sebastian boris bondarev link, apology

gazelle - read it in the paper shop if you don't like forking out , it's 2 mins, not worth forking out for as generic gung ho aim oilers sitting in the box seats. surprisingly though its big feature by known good writer. am sure RB will like reading it

geordy on ADVFN posted few mins ago tanker just arrived Aoka Mizu

Todays Times Business Section pp 50-51 has 1-2 page main feature article titled 'London's oil and gas minnows are riding wave of success' by Dominic O'Connell. Whole theme is current AIM leading success of AIM oilers, profits being made and takeover/merger possibilities. HUR not named but to a tee applicable and relevant to HR SHs. Would post a link but online login won't allow me. Worth a read if anyone has access

A digression if anyone wants listen to yesterday's Tim Sebastian's 25 mins interview of Boris Bondarev (Russian diplomat resigned May 22). Quality & informative re much including conflict length. If zero interest, ignore. Some will appreciate
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Chinas-Oil-Demand-Is-Finally-Bouncing-Back.html

PS. Gonna be huge numbers of alarm clocks set for 6.50 am tomorrow...)

Evening CEJ
Haven't a clue but can't see it mattering - common sense says it's lazy systems admin, if someone wants to buy HUR it will be removed pronto before signing ceremony.
Nice to see wise heads posting calm and reason amidst the drivel newly fermented by Policeman Simpleton
We've all been promoted to cretin status by PS - I wear my badge with pride and honour...))

for god's sake tiger - simples said RB gave out privileged information he was not entitled to give out. RB did not. he stated information already in the public domain which you or i or thousands of others could have given oldman ie. that interims would be published sometime this week and that the RNS may or may not contain other information
if that is sinister then my todger is a foot long!

stxx
my swipe was re simples making waves re RB being naughty which he wasn't
interims must be announced sometime this week and they may or may not contain other info
we all knew that anyway - rb might as well have said he was going to have a pee sometime this week and he may or may not have sardines for tea tomorrow
the issue of whether HUR should announce in advance the specific date they will publish interims is a separate and different issue

with respect to nitpicking simple minded folk -
it's already in public domain that by law HUR have to release interims by this friday
and that interims 'may' contain other info is the same as saying they may not - it's saying nothing
nothing sinister at all in RB making statements he did to Oldman

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Chinas-Oil-Demand-Is-Finally-Bouncing-Back.html

My message is simple

Massive news flow approaches, the substance over which we have no control. BUT, we can control our response- namely it is only our buying and selling which will control share price. We own 20% - we are to at least some extent, a power bloc. NEVER underestimate the determined little man - we little men backed up CA so hugely the criminal court attempt to dilute us 95% failed. Little man Ukraine is condemning criminal big Russia to failure. LEARN from these lessons.

As news soon flows in waves (over next 1-13 weeks) as water over waterfall, we all face existential albeit pragmatic decision - to bail out or to hold. Some remain in at 40p - 60p, some lucky newbies are in at 1p - 5p. Most will be in somewhere in between. What then to do if, say, for instance, if CA bail at 15p? Sell? Or stick and wait?

My message (for the good of all) is - if in doubt, DO NOWT! If want to top slice 10%-20% to sleep at night, do so. But be under no illusion that it is only PI buying and selling which will influence SP after new breaks.

Allow time for wise posters to opine whether there will be SP pullback. Or whether the deal is good so HUR will rise from whatever deal level is achieved, to greater heights within reasonable timespan. Whereas it is true you may lose a spike opportunity, the cost may be forfeiting a 3-6 month SP doubling.

You believe you have little influence or power. 20% is NOT little influence or power. Believe! I repeat - 20% is INFLUENCE.

Lastly - as and when news flow arrives is NOT the time for ego or handbags at dawn nonsense. It will be a time for collective considered opinions. Not visceral gut reaction. No one abhors our chief execs more than I. But the ONLY ESSENTIAL task will be to decide - is it wise to sell, or hold? So be minded - we all need each other's intelligent best efforts in discussing news as it flows in coming weeks.

Slava HUR!

Reading and reflecting, I really do see supply crunch approaching and oil rising. Part of the reasons being that the war will continue through the winter as russia gives it's 300K new lost souls time to have an effect and weaken western resolve. (russia goal). Plus in the event russia uses a tactical mini-nuke gossip is leaking that the us after consultation with certain trusted western partners has told russia via back channels that if it does go mini-nuke, there will be no nuclear war. Instead via conventional means the russia black sea fleet (10-20 warships) will overnight cease to exist. As will the russia baltic fleet (10-20 warships) the following night. Since mad vlad knows in such circs at some point commanders will refuse taking his orders and remove him, I don't see even him being daft enough. Ergo I discount nuclear war and expect the long drawn out, with supply-pressured high oil prices, until he is removed in any event.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Are-About-To-Reverse-Course.html

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-brent-crude-100-supply-shortage-russia-jpmorgan-2022-9

oil will rise
dollar will stay high, pound low, for goodly while
other things aside (plan, corporate action etc) HUR on right side of all, doing fine
just hoping mediocre average intelligence overpaid no skin in game CFO doesn't hedge either dollar or oil and wastes circa 20% HUR income protecting own ass

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/An-Oil-Supply-Shock-May-Be-Imminent.html

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Razor-Thin-Spare-Capacity-To-Keep-Oil-Prices-Elevated.html

Perhaps. But it will still affect Russia's finances - buyers will further hammer down the already heavily discounted Russia price - because Russia will have to take whatever price is offered

Whilst we wait patiently for operational, planning & deal news, we could discuss 2 issues becoming increasingly clear to likely significantly affect HUR for some time, namely:-
1. Dollar - pound exchange rate as traditional flight to dollar safety increases at a time of world geopolitical & economic uncertainty. HUR benefits from dollar strength pound weakness.
2. Whether increasingly desperate Russia will 'totally turn off the taps' as soon as European winter & cold hits. Thus exacerbating energy supply crunch and dramatically spiking world oil & gas prices.

But we cannot do so because the fundamental driver for both issues is the Ukraine - Russia war, discussion of which is frowned upon by numerous posters because this is an oil forum, and discussion of geopolitics/war is strictly verboten. A position rather akin to discussing something whilst ignoring the elephant in the room.