Member Info for senseman

here's one to stave off the boredom (just for fun):-
with likely near 7p a share in the bank by end 2002, and another 6p for 2023 if oils stays $100, and taking account of tax credits circa 14p (say 6p for buyer discount), if any offer was made say by dec 22, what do peeps think would:- (a) be fair? (b) would be accepted?

eski - acting morally and maintaining one's own standards when the other is not, and the power balance unequal, is always the hardest test. it's a poor analogy but the principle is the same - when mandela and his mates were first incarcerated on robben island, beatings and puerile indignities imposed by the guards were daily meat and drink. the guys had a pow-pow - mandela said ' it will take time but we will shame them with dignity and asking for fair treatment with quiet voice'. after a while the guards were so in awe of the prisoners the bad stuff stopped and basic rights restored.

With debt to service, and HUR it's biggest earner, Bluewater's health is for some time inextricably linked to HUR's.
Last offload, BW's 8% earned it 80K a day on top of 75K day rate. BW has real skin in the game.
BW AM crew will on big bonuses to (a) limit shutdown time (b) keep well 6 performing high, for as long as poss.
Good for us. BW will not be pulling the plug at any time.
HUR's negligent BoD will over 3 yrs donate + $50 mill to BW for not exercising 3 yr extension at 25K day rate (now £75K).
Good fortune & well done to BW, caused great worry by June 21 court fiasco. Yoo boo sucks to us - thank you BoD.
Well 6 currently looking good for 2024 5000 bpd average adding +4p a share

in 2021 economic production was predicted to cease Feb 24 with oil at $59. actual production decline is precisely mirroring that 2021 prediction. if oil stays anywhere $100 (or even $70-$80) one can add at least a year to that (CA's opinion & common sense), ie to Feb 25. I say likely at least 30 months production left.

As Dive says - well 6 performance post shutdown will be crucial - if bottom hole pressure recovers well, P6 is likely in the money for longer.
Whoever wins China November president battle, zero Covid policy will end and China economy will bounce back. This is not a small thing. US-Iran nuclear deal is improbable. Oil & gas sanctions will at last impact Russia significantly - West must hold it's nerve. I think Russia weaker than commonly understood. I think more likely than not oil price will recover strongly.

Warren - you'll have to try harder and do better - you transparent little tinker!

In 2021 the Half Year Results & Oct monthly Operational & Finance update were published within 1 RNS on 14 October.
Last offload was July 24. Allowing 2-3 weeks for shutdown, next offload should around 14 October or few days earlier. So may again see 1 RNS covering both matters. So although quiet 2 months, big news flow then due even if no Sept update. As flying says, will be interesting see what market (+ analysts) thinks of HUR with applicable PE ratio for first time. And, if oil $110, another $35mill cash = $124mill unrestricted + $19mill restricted; Knock off $5mill if oil $100

Apology - omitted in error
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-120-tight-market-russia-china-us-reserve-2022-8

Cash from mid-Feb offload could see 9.3p cash

A pleasure to read nice figures Glouc, even if we're navel gazing. Given the $19 mill is HUR's eventually returnable cash sitting in an escrow account earning interest, it's legitimate to include it in cash totting-up/valuations. Would certainly be included in any negotiations. If it's included, as well as nearly full AM, by 31 Dec HUR cash would be-
Brent $100 next 2 offloads = 7.3p
Brent £110 next 2 offloads = 7.8p
Am more optimistic than most will be $110 (see below). Even if EPL remains, most of HUR's tax bill should be offset via reinvestment. Am more sanguine than you about a deal being done a bit later than you. But main things is - what a transformation from 14 months ago

With respect to esk & dalt, I share their BoD angst, but they are wrong. I am glad we got a dozen thanks yous in before this doomster talk. The BoD are not so stupid as to interpret a few thank yous as meaning all is forgiven & forgotten. Neither is any SH. Can you imagine me ever forgiving or forgetting? I want to win the SP war. Saying the BoD should do this or that anyway changes nothing.
A few thank yous is a gentle diplomatic message that listening/transparency is noted/appreciated. How that message going forward is another matter. We asked, the BoD listened, we said thank you. It's not complicated.

I'd appreciate not being accused of posting for need of wanting 15 seconds of fame & adoration. Anyone thinking I put in hard shifts when needed for that reason needs a rethink. The forum is supposed to be a 'team' intent on the same goal. Whereas I don't always get it right, I try my level best. I always have in mind those deep underwater at +40p and my ideal would be to see us return to as near as that if possible, one way or t'other.

Truss will be PM 5 Sept & next election Jan 25 as Tories need as long as poss to turn things around for reelection.
Addressing energy/ EPL will be unwanted unavoidable political priority so clarity should be by end Sept.
Given EPL importance, hard to see any 'plan' decisions being made/announced before then. Also hard to see, if any commercial deal/partnership/buyout being considered (incl CA share sale), anything being signed before then. Other party would argue EPL exists, HUR and/or CA would argue it may disappear. Values in 2 different scenarios materially different so how could a deal be agreed before clarity.
$111 a barrel July offload was great. Better Brent weakness now as 2 months to recover to $110. We're doing OK. Remember If 7p cash by end Dec and still no 'deal', Jan 23 makes it harder for commercial buyer to argue 2023 production cash should not be included in valuation. 7p + 6 p + 6p tax credit value = 19p. One might argue 2023 cash 'risk' is nullified/discounted as fair quid pro quo for likely 2024 production cash + acreage (P8 or other decision) benefit. It's easy to see how 6 months more problem free production strengthens HUR's position greatly.
A financial low risk (for HUR) new drill or smart low risk acquisition would (should) put HUR in different SP above 19p.
I am of course a glass half-full guy. Just my musings.

well done fellas - a dozen so far, but of course the more the merrier & better
mister.e cites well the emotional conundrum & decides correctly. a thank you costs nothing & shows understanding of others' feelings. it's also about adhering to & displaying one's own standards. small actions can have big consequences.
so a few more emails to show our Chair we're not peasants, and let's hope it's a Happy Monday

On basis that manners maketh man, and if one says thank you when someone listens then one may always ask again, I have sent the below email to Philip Wolfe. It would be helpful if perhaps half a dozen others sent similar email or variation thereof. For obvious reasons. It matters less what particular interval the Board have now decided on (eg, monthly, or after each offload) - rather that they have listened. To email addresses:-

philip.wolfe@hurricaneenergy.com
comms@hurricaneenergy.com
rb@crystalamber.com

"Dear Mr Wolfe

The 11th August 2022 Operational and Financial update was very much appreciated by shareholders.

Please thank the Board of Directors for its perspicacity in taking shareholders views into account, and amending it’s earlier decision to issue only quarterly updates.

Yours sincerely

Name
Shareholder"

Have 3 confirmed so far. Let's have a few more confirming ASAP so done and dusted - we don't need many - 10 tops would be ideal

schlemmy - good man. if a few write, chair and rb can feed this back to BoD, all helps to smooth ruffled egos
you are correct re 'its' and instinct tells me you are likely correct re 'yours sincerely' as the recipient is addressed by name with a degree of prior-knowing

Apology, forgot. Email addresses
philip.wolfe@hurricaneenergy.com
comms@hurricaneenergy.com
rb@crystalamber.com

On the basis that manners maketh man, and if one says thank you when someone listens then one may always ask again, I have sent the below email to Philip Wolfe. It would be helpful if perhaps just half a dozen others sent similar email or variation thereof. For obvious reasons. It matters less what particular interval the Board have now decided on (eg, monthly, or after each offload) - rather that they have listened

"Dear Mr Wolfe

The 11th August 2022 Operational and Financial update was very much appreciated by shareholders.

Please thank the Board of Directors for it’s perspicacity in taking shareholders views into account, and amending it’s earlier decision to issue only quarterly updates.

Yours faithfully

Name
Shareholder"

As of 31 July 2022 - simple statement nil debt + $89mill cash. Welcome & pleasing
Failed my Jan 22 forecast +$100mill cash (which omitted March's $18.7mill AM new lease surety). Otherwise $107.7mill!

P6 performance superb – espec well gauge pressure. Last 3 mths only 1578 - 1572 - 1564 - 1556. Water cut also excellent.

July offload to end 2022 is 158 days. Less shutdown say 14 days – 144 days. Say 8200 bpd reasonable average till end 2022. If Brent rebounds to $110 for next 2-3 offloads (not improbable - current $99):-
$110 – 8% BW = $101.2 – OPEX $35 pb (Chaffe AGM statement (I think high)) = $66.2 pb profit x 8200 x 144 = $78.17mill
$89mill + $78.17mill = $168.17 mill = approx 8.5c a share (7p) as of 31.12.22.
Takes account of oil in AM 31.12.22
Takes no account of EPL if stays in place
Takes no account of $18.7mill cash surety held by Bluewater (yes it's real money, and ours)
Would mean cash = current MCAP 8p a share end Jan 2023.

Doomster valuations citing ERCE, forward curve etc are akin to AA reports one may commission when car buying - meant to identity every less-than-new-car flaw to help buyer deplete purchase price. Such nonsense just highlight the price of everything but the value of nothing. 'Yes madam, I know your AA report says it would cost £2950 to replace every less than perfect part of my car with new. But since it is only 5 years old with 50K on the clock and I am only selling it for £3000, I decline your kind offer of £50 and now kindly b*gger off'

Valuing is as much art as science.
Fair chance cash 7p a share by end Dec 22
Fair chance further 6.5p a share Jan-Dec 23
Fair chance further 4-5p a share Jan-Dec 24
Add on nuts, bolts, tax credits, new well, plan, farm in as one wishes and in whatever order. Whilst clearly all to play for, 7p cash per share by end of year would be sweet security and very nice starting point.

good man, bothy. been 3-4 emails sent over weekend so will be 60ish total. a few later ones & a little variety helps as stops the usual defensive 'it's just the usual suspects' cry. 60 is a LOT. we have given CA ammo to use. it's not just the specific issue but the substantive issue that ca and us are still likely regarded as 'troublemakers'. it all helps when a big battle has to be fought and i can see one or two on the horizon. appalling decision making and no skin in the game has to has an end life sometime

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Analyst-Oil-To-Hit-120-Again-By-Winter.html

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/goldman-sees-strong-case-higher-oil-prices-despite-negative-shocks-2022-08-08/

not spending 50 mill buying bonds back at +30c in $ - 100 mill wasted
not renewing AK lease for 3 years at 25K a day (we pay 75K a day) - 56 mill wasted
scam plan costs - +17 mill wasted
surrendering a well tested at 10K bpd, with tie-back kit already bought -

+173 mill wasted, not counting the 10k well (5k to us)
i feel a wasted +400 mill headache coming on and my abacus has exploded