Member Info for Senator1

Real eps in 1H 25 was 1.24p fact. Take statutory PAT and divide by same weighted shars they did to get their adj eps of 2.8p. This is all facts. Someone is dreaming, its not me!

Im sick and tired of companies excluding everything they dont like, f/x losses, acquisition intangibles....the list goes on. They made the underlying decesions and when it goes wrong they like to forget them. I wish LSE would ban public companies reporting all these adjustments in the RNS. If you want to exclude up to you but if they are the result of management decesions, i dont. Having said all that I gave them the benefit in my best case eps forecast and so I am 100% sticking to my eps forecast. Reality it has more downside than up, so 80p is my most generous call.

Adj eps was 2.8p, the real eps was 1.24p. If we assume 2H delivers 75% of earnings FY adj eps should be circa 11.2p or real eps=9.64p. Concensus for FY 26 is 15p which is too high by 36% giving them the benefit of the adjustments. At my eps of 11.2p for FY 26 it is trading at c.10x, thats too much. Needs to fall back to 80p, imo. The quoted 6.7x PER is misleading as I think the 15p eps forecast way too high. lets see if it breaks £1 this week, it should!

Its not the way it works. 25% and you block it. anyone who wants out goes in to discontinuation pool and they get their pro-rata shares in the underlying and they are sold over 12 months. All 3 of the big guys ex GH have been selling over last 12 months, no exception. GH are now stuck because they dont want to bid for all of SEC if they go over 30%, so this buyer has dried up and GH and some retail hsve been the only buyers with the institutions selling. The better option would have been to give to Capital Group, City of london, 1607 their share of the underlying shares and then it all gets hidden from market but they didnt propose that. For these institutions this is a small trade and doesnt move the needle either way so god knows what they decide but if their actions of last 12 months is a guide then you got to think they want out. On a return for risk basis it doesnt stake up. But all that doesnt matter, the key is there is uncertainty and what does market do when it doesnt know....it sells!

They lost half when the discount ended. Also fact you cant upload from phone needs to be sorted. They have a tailwing though as they are right that the future will mean more marketing messages by video. That will carry a lot of boats if they get this right. They are right to keep the spend on marketing low and allocate funds to the things they have to add to the technology. They need a querky video edit to capture the imagination, lets see what they roll out in October on youtube. But they have to add the phobe interface, that is priority.

Those large trades reported on a delayed basis must be Diverse Income Trust / Premier Miton. Wonder what they are doing, moving between funds maybe or were they external sales. Ask your broker tomo for colour and see what they say. If they dont know tell them they are useless. As usual in the UK, this thing now trades at pro-forma net assets of £8M, so much for the UK valuing things on future potential. When in doubt value it at net assets. The UK market is a waste of space!

Problem is, elevate is not a seperate legal entity within Blackbird so its all a bit of b...t in any event but nonetheless would like to have that number. Dont know why they are trying to fund this in the sh...tty UK public markets. Private market valuations are far higher but these creative types know nothing about finance! They didnt even give the pro-forma cash & short term balance in the RNS so the numbskulls go off on a stupid uninformed rant.

Someone who thinks GH were holding Treasury shares has limited knowledge "...........around 17% held by Gresham (Treasury shares?" I dont care what research you did, once the market knows you are a seller you are at their mercy, 6 months, 12 months , 18 months it doesnt matter. They will gap down and wait you out, that simple. Buy a small amount and gap down again, the minute they think you are in the market. The Board cant hold investors money forever, they will just get on with it. They will try to be sensible but everyone and his granny will know what is happening. The decesion to offer the redemption goes back to 2022, they have gazed on their navel and moved at the speed of a glacier long enough. They know as much about how financial markets work as you

In IOM only Guildford and london are worth having. They grossly over paid for Atech to an incompetent level. The domain business has £12M of sales & falling, whats that worth? Is the SOTP worth more than £100M debt value? Is it even worth £100M. London/Guildford £20M, Atech £30M, Domain business £20M, so I cant see the equity value? And then you have the shareholder problem? Madness to buy at current valuation, imo.

everyone will have their sotp valuation but if sec are a net seller with 29.5% or some smaller % in sec (i think they hold most of it as iom falls in their strategy) then the sotp becomes irrelevant and you could get crushed. this is the problem with sec offering a redemption option to shareholders. their underlyings are relatively illiquid. we have seen this story before in the uk and thast didnt end well. i dont know what vote will be but i dont takerisks on things i cant calculate and no one knows what the three big boys will do and then as a result what gh will do re their holding in sec. sec are in a bind and it must be very stressful for them and gh. this is classic problem of dealing in illiquid small caps, things can get very stupid and out of hand very easily. if i were iom i would be ****ed with sec and their board.

Treasury shares are seperate to GH holding

We already know that SEC will only continue if it maintains a minimum size of £100M after the vote. Given the next 3 largest shareholders beside GH have been net sellers over the last year that might be tough and also because there are quite a few retail investors from the platforms and they might exit as SEC over the long term has not been great. Good since Wotton but poor before him. So, if they are liquidating they must do that within 12 months so they wont have time for any build strategy and after Oct 15th market will know exactly what and when they are selling. This all gets amplified if say only GH, Treasury shares and Board are staying as if its less than £100M left I dont know what happens, it wont be good thats for sure. Huge event risk for all their holdings as I think Capital Group, City of London, 1607 will exit as the risk return metrics (which they will review, I know retail dont understand this) are not compeeling. Sharpe is about 0.75x so would have thought they should think they could do better.

Can anyone on this Board do any simple maths, equity is down 20% from year end all accounted for by the £1.5M P&L loss of which one third is non cash items. They have downsized base Blackbird and that is now EBITDA positive. Who cares if Rev is lower, what they sell they need to have a positive operating margin which is now the case. It was £495K last year all from the 2H. That gives them the foothold to grow elevate.io in a smart way. They have already made a substantial change but because you dont understand the numbers you cant see it!

Thats not way to assess. They have MAU of 1,450 and 344 paying which is 24%. Anyone can create an account so while they report 110,000 have verified their email, 1,450 are actively using which is 1.3% of those verifying an email. Of course they need to get this adoption up but they now have 110k emails thats up from 40k in Nov last year. Chain is sign-ups, then to active users and then to payers. They are doing well when they get people to actively use but need to do more on getting active use. Workshops, education are all part of this and targeting the right sign ups.

Plus the positive ebitda from base Blackbird (flagged in release) and the subs from elevate as payers grow.

OMG, how stupid are you. The cash & short term investments including the July raise (after accounts) is approx £4.2M (£2.3M at June plus the £2.1M raise minus deal expenses) so they have the cash to get market adoption. They are converting MAUs to paying at 24% rate (Aug MAU 1,450, payers 344). The run rate annualised rev is £49,535 at the £12 a month, so its starting. Long way to go but this last post uninformed rubbish. If you dont know how to read accounts dont spread b......t

If you look at SEC's 3 largest shareholders they have all been reducing over the last year and their stock was essentially bought by Gresham House. Sold shares were 2.5M bought by Gresham 2.4M. So this doesnt augur well for the tender offer. The top 3 own 14.3M shares, thats £51.4M value and then there is a remainder of 22.2M shares which could potentially be tendered. I am assuming Gresham house wont tender, nor the Treasury shares. This will put pressure on all SEC's holdings as whatever amount is tendered will mean they will sell the portfolio over 12 months to realise the buyback. There is now major uncertainty until October 15, 2025 for all their holdings as they have chunky positions in them all. You can do all the fundamental analysis you want but if a 29.5% shareholder is forced to sell (albeit over 12 months) you can get crushed! The market will anticipate this and it will be amplified because of the poor liquidity. Be very careful as this is all very technical.

Might not be able to, see liquidity offered to his own shareholders.

Sorry Tender offer results on Oct 15th, approval for buyback Oct 8th. So be careful as Gresham House holds c17% of Strategic Capital, the holder of IOM. If shareholders redeem this forces Strategic Capitals hand (unless Gresham step in and become bigger shareholder). Over the last 3 years Strategic's CAGR for its shareholders is 9.57% p.a., way better than most but hardly rocking the world. In a near 5% risk free world, GBP10y 4.75%, this could be close. Over last 12 months the average liquidity is just under £300k, so not the easiest thing to exit. Over 10 years CAGR is 5.12% which isnt good. iomart are in the eye of a storm, some their creation, some not.

This analysis is not correct. Gresham are capped out at 29.5% and as you say if go higher have to make a bid. But they wont go higher because SEI have offered investors an opportunity to redeem their shareholding so no way they will add to this position. In fact if SEI shareholders redeem it all gets very ugly! We know Lombard are reducing and Octopus they are down 8.7M shares and 3.2M shares respectively in the last 12 months. So there are no buyers except retail and the price keeps going down because the big boys keep offering stock. Strategic capital vote is Oct 8th, so buying before this date is a gamble. If Gresham turn seller this could go very low.