Member Info for Senator1

Thats better, a bit more balance. Anyone suggesting anything near £7.30.......never, ever listen to them. You will lose a lot of money. By management's own guidance it will do EPS of 12-15p to March 26. Why on gods earth would anyone pay £7.5 for that. The market will take money off any idiot!

If you take management guidance and run it through to EPS this trades at 15-19 x earnings for no pro-forma growth as advised by management. This is too high as there are lots of much bigger companies in this space at 5-6x. £3 is dreaming. If management cant give robust guidance how can anyone external say they can pro-forma the numbers. Market is quick to punish and slow to forgive. Even taking management revised guidance this is way too expensive for shareholders. Another thing they do which is unforgivable is nil cost options. Any co. that does this should also automatically be at a discount, there is no rationale for nil cost options. Sell.

It's always VERY smart to stuff your shareholders, sell at 2x and buy at x. That's the mindset of second hand car dealers and hamsters on a wheel. I have absolutely no idea what positive point you were trying to make but I'm glad there are people think like you as this is ultimately a zero sum game.

The numbers are terrible. FCF was £33M including cash received from terminating IRS's of £15M and they exclude asset financing principal payments of £4m, so recurring £14M. What did they spend this on? £16M net on new pubs/freehold reversions and £53M on shares. This tells you everything you need to know. They have tried to prop up the shares by borrowing money as they have nothing better to do. This is rapidly going nowhere but they are doing their best to have it not reflected in the share price by being the biggest buyer. I doubt anyone else bought £53M worth of stock last year. Again, way overvalued. They are borrowing money to keep the current shareholders happy at the expense of the ones that will buy in the future. This isnt sustainable and the small net investment means there will be little growth. Its a classic hamster on a wheel, has to squeeze more out of what its got. Sell.

I can see 6 institutions that agree with me. It really is so over-priced. 12-13 x earnings for a sandwich shop, you must be joking. And worse, it is on an expansion drive in the UK which is consuming lots of cash. Look at the chart, you try and catch a falling knife if you want. It is the most common approach of retail punters and they generally lose. Ms Reeves will do nothing good in the budget, the question is will she do any damage? It's obvious to me she is way out of her depth and they will mess it upand then all these discretionary spend cos will be making excuses at the next results and passing the buck. Nothing is certain, but this is pretty close! Thats why the shorts are on this one, pretty simple really. Retail has lots of operating leverage and a small drop in sales can do lots of damage. The price increases introduced in Feb and the lfl ytd tell you volume is already falling. The CEO is trying to combat it with selective price increases hoping she can stay ahead of further Lfl volume falls. My bet is she doesnt succeed, the macro is set firmly against her and the SP is not reflecting this, so down she goes.

6.3" and 106kgs whatever relevance that has! That rally didnt last long! This is so obviously going down!

Your the one who said "SEC are in the drivers seat", they are not. The inaccuracies come 100% from you. SEC have bought back 32% of their shares which they hold in Treasury, thats £73.4M of shareholders money to try and improve the discount which as of yesterday is still 13.03%. SEC shareholders didnt give management the money to have them turn around and buyback the issued stock. The buyback hasnt worked. 32% held in Treasury and then another 10 own 45% of the gross shares, thats a total 77% with a significant amount retail, who like you, wont have a clue. The chances of them getting to £100M is too close to call as the total value of the top 10 shareholders as of yesterday is £104M. Nobody knows anything about the other 23% so who knows who they are or what they will do. Yes, if they dont have £100M to continue they will pull the tender and they say themseles re-evaluate to include "winding up SEC". For gods sake if buying back 32% of your shares still results in a 13% discount, the market is telling you its over. Then what happens? Yes they might try to sell the undelyings to friends, mates, other institutions ..........blah blah, but who has the power, the seller or buyer? Bottom line, huge uncertainty and you have the village idiots on the Board of SEC in control of the destiny of the share price of all the underlyings. The Board of SEC has nothing meaningful in terms of shareholding. The highest is R. Locke at 30,000 shares. Yes 30,000 shares. Even the Chairman only has 10,000....beer money. An irrelevance.

How can SEC be in the drivers seat when they might be put in to run down? You do write total rubbish! Nobody knows how SEC vote will go, nobody but you can track what their big shareholders have been doing but that takes effort which I know you wont have done. If SEC shareholders vote for redemption in large numbers, god only knows what will happen. This is the stupidity of the SEC Board to do it the way they have chosen with the underlying SEC investments generally quite illiquid. Madness, village idiots making decisions that have no idea about the practicalities! The SEC Board, I dont know who they are, but where do they find these people!

You cant take todays cash as we know the business will consume cash until at least 2028 by managements own forecasts. That makes no sense, just ignoring the issue!

You are the stupid one,very stupid. They have done a remarkable job on Blackbird ex elevate. 1H 25 EBITDA pre options(non cash item) +£127K from same period loss of -£182K in 2024. This also means they made +£674k in the 2H 24 as the FY was £492k which if they deliver the same in 2H 25 gives them £800K EBITDA from main business. That is a remarkable turnaround and gives them organic cash for elevate. Those are hard facts, fact you cant work that out and calling numbers a joke tells me you know nothing and nothing insightful will come from you. It is clear to me you bought in before you saw this turnaround so you are buried and sore and you still dont have knowledge to work out the facts I presented. my advice leave the market to those with the skills to garner insights. Its not for amateurs!

And now to add insult to injury the gross shares outstanding increased by 433,879 since end of June. How can the executive team do this as they didnt go to the EBT. Unbelievable, payment for failure!

They were buried on the 2024 purchase price, they give you the data in their AR when it was in the top 10. they had 2 choices, swallow a bitter pill and exit at big loss or double up and bring average price down. They chose the latter and still lost money on every single purchase. They are now between a rock and a hard place. Capped out at 29.5%, with MAYBE (who knows, nobody knows until Mid Oct) their investors exiting. How is that good for any share held by SEC, particularly those with poor liquidity. Im not a gambler, I dont need to own any stock, i have no emotional attachment and I am indifferent between long and short. The numbers and technical situation make the decesion for me. What I will say is IOM grossly overpaid for Atech. The Atech shareholders saw them coming abnd they didnt even have to take IOM shares. Genuis! I havent seen the Atech main shareholder buy any shares. He could put in more than £21k unlike the founder who has clearly failed, there is no argument on that. I like the CEO of SEC but he got IOM wrong on 2 occasions, the 2024 holding and then doubling up in 2025. He tried to catch a falling knife, never a good strategy. His previous experience where he luckily got out at breakeven should have taught him that but he obviously wanted more hassle in his life. Then the Board shafted him by delivering on their 2022 promise to give shareholders the right to redeem at Nav! Thats where we are. Sad in some ways but those are the facts.

The fact she is rising prices in to this market tells you how tough it is. Its 5 months after last price rise, which was around 4%. The lfl revenue growth year to date was 2.2% so volumes are down. Declining lfl volume and expanding in a weak discretionary spend environment which is definitely getting worse after the budget. This is a headwind and you expect me to pay 12.5-13x earnings. This one is an easy short.

No they didn't. This is way too expensive. SMA 200 on a steep decline, this needs to fall to mid 12s to have any interest. They are still running hard and going nowhere. Most of growth is new stores, LfL 2% odd year to date. They are agressively expanding in a market that is set to get much weaker (its bad already) after Ms Reeves messes up in a few weeks. The smart money is short this one as a nice hedge against further UK weakness. Its just too expensive.

Accountants dont sign off on hypothetical numbers and certainly not on something as plain vanilla as cable exposure. If the FD said what you say he said, he should be taken aside and educated on currency hedging and what it means. I cant believe he said that, ridiculous thing to say , if he said it! For any investor in Card Factory I hope he is not that uninformed about his own hedging strategy.

Its NOT BUSINESS HEDGING. They are hedging currency exposure. Card is short dollars in their COGS as their overseas suppliers invoice in dollars (typical of Asia). To hedge this they buy dollars forward up to three years out. Because the dollar has depreciated they have lost value on these forward contracts as they could have bought dollars forward more cheaply in the forward dates from a lower spot rate. This is a real Mark to market loss. The CFOs summary was wrong, totally wrong. If he unwound these forward contracts on the day of the accounts he would realise that exact loss, 100%. It has a real cost because he has locked in a sterling price at a higher level and this will ultimately result in a higher COGS and lower GP margin and the PV of the 3 year hedging is the number reported. Of course if cable exchange changes and the dollar strengthens it could go to a mark to market profit but if the dollar continus to fall the loss will widen. For the FD to say this will never materialise is beyond stupid as he has no idea where dollar/sterling(cable) is going. If he claimed he did, why is he working for Card Factory, he could make a fortune trading cable. Totally stupid thing for him to say, convinces me even more this is a short as he has no idea what he is talking about.

You are a total idiot, no they did not. On 1/8/25 they were at 28.3%, on 30/7/25 24.4%, 23/8/24 19.4% and 30/6/24 12.8%. They paid between £1.53 and £0.23p. Angus MacSween founded the co. and oversaw the shares go from over £4.5 to 18p and so Im going to place a great deal of confidence in him being the last of the big spenders, with a £21k investment. You are way out of your league, clueless, totally clueless. Load up, buy all the shares you can get. Tradings a zero sum game so we need more easy pickings. Anyone buying this share not knowing whether their biggest shareholder will be continuing after they ask their shareholders whether they want to continue is beyond stupid, you have no one to blame but your own stupidity if they vote to discontinue. Trasding shares is not about punting, punters lose in the end and so they should. The history of the purchases of Gresham House are in the RNS's but you are too lazy to review the data that is publicly available.

Because they bought shares at £1.53 and £1.25 in 2024 and were absolutely buried on their investment. They should have come out but decided to buy more to bring their average price down but again they bought too soon at 38p. By my calcs they are down about £30M and now they are stuck. Cant by anymore without having to make a full tender and cant do that as the biggest buyer in Group has a continuation vote. You couldnt make this up. I bet they hate the name iomart at GH.

Your an id--t

You clearly have no understanding what goes in the P&L statement. Go and learn the basics before debating with me. A loss is a loss, I dont care why they did it. If it was an efficient hedge as you contend then there is an offsetting gain somewhere else so why on gods earth would I exclude the loss and let the profit ride. thats one sided, ridiculous argument. But suspect you have no understanding of what you are saying!