Member Info for SeisNav

I'm an investor not a trader, charts are of no relevance to me and especially trying to chart a share where a handful of small trades can move the share 10%. I invest based on the potential here, which you have absolutely no clue about because all you look at is drawing a straight line between two arbitrary points.

You were changing your model just the other day because the real world didn't fit with what you predicted....

It's a good question Bobbill, to be honest it had passed me by until you mentioned it. Up until the Q3 operational update in April they were still quoting a capacity of 13,000 tonnes for Roan, then in the latest RNS they mention 8,000-9,000 tonnes as a target.

My thought is that it's related to the low grade (LG) feed material that they have lined up for Roan. I don't think it mentions what the grade is but the modular capacity stated previously was based on a feed grade of 1.5%. That's hardly low grade.

The question is if they knew that the material being fed into Roan would be less than the required 1.5% needed to reach capacity then why were they still quoting it? I could be wrong of course but it's definitely something to ask at the next Q&A.

Https://rb.gy/qh6gab

Here's what's been going on a Thutse for anyone who likes slightly blurry satellite images! To me it looks like they are preparing the groundworks for the two new modules but open to suggestions...

Also if you look at historical data from Google Earth, that orange area to the top right has been previously mined and then back-filled so it looks like there's plenty of source material for the modules near at hand.

Maybe try reading the WH Ireland research note for a reality check Edzi, 25K tonnes of copper (let alone copper oxide) is not even possible at the moment so I don't know why you were hoping for that this year. For me, what matters is proof of concept. If Roan produces as claimed, everything else will fall into place down the road. Maybe not as fast as we would all like but it will happen and once it takes off then we will see the same exponential growth as in chrome.

Share price is temporary… copper in the ground is what counts. All signs point to significant copper in the ground. They are already on site (which takes time to dry out enough to move equipment around) and I think we will hear news of drilling pretty soon.

In Botswana, the latest images on X show that they are almost down to the depth of the major anomaly in the IP data.

I’m sure Slater wouldn’t expect the company to grow without issuing more shares, that’s what every company on AIM has to do to build a thriving business. It’s such a short term viewpoint to complain about it. Even if you take out the whole period when the PGM basket was inflating the share price, we are still more than 100% up on where we were despite issuing more shares… there’s a bigger, longer term picture.

It’s actually about 25% increase in shares in issue since the heady days of 21p. I haven’t seen the article so maybe the point is being misunderstood. Actually the 9p valuation (if thats what it is) is almost in line with the brokers views so maybe not far off based on where we are. Obviously if the PGM basket was what it was in 2021 we would be worth much more than 9p!

Good morning BB2, yes that’s the latest research note as far as I’m aware.

I find it's always worthwhile referring back to these research notes from time to time. There is quite a bit of information in there. They estimated about 12,000 tonnes of copper production for 2025 with 2,500 tonnes of that is from the OB1 waste rock project and 500 tonnes from Munkoyo. They estimate 24,000 tonnes production for 2026.

This was from the WH Ireland research note from February:

"Estimates suggest that the modular units will capture 65% of contained copper."

There will likely be further losses during the oxide leaching process (they estimate 90% recovery).

I think you're confusing Roan with Sable Edzi, the high grade material is going to Sable as others have already said.

Where are you seeing 4-5% grades Edzi? The RNS talks about LG material (low grade) being upgraded at source before being further upgraded at Roan but I don't see any mention of those types of grades.

The grades being sent to Sable from Projects M and G could potentially be much higher once they install the satellite upgrade units but as Leon mentions thats a 12 month timescale.

For some reason I can't connect to the Jubilee website using my broadband connection. Tried it on my mobile and it worked fine. Just in case anyone else is having the same issue.

Good to see the full version of the Sable video, it's makes a lot more sense when you see the copper being produced at the end of the process!

Strange to make a video about Sable without actually showing the end product, nice shiny copper cathodes!

Bobbill, that's not quite right:

Sable will eventually be a 16,000 tpa refinery with a capacity of 12,000 tpa of copper cathode and 4,000 tpa of sulphide concentrate. The sulphide circuit has not yet been constructed, that's due to start during this quarter.

Roan will produce copper oxide concentrate (low grade) which will initially go to Sable for processing into cathode. In theory this could be 5,000 tpa of oxide concentrate. It will also produce a sulphide concentrate (high grade) which will be sold into the market for refining.

Eventually (according to Jubilee) projects M and G will produce enough concentrate to fill Sable and then Roan will be entirely a separate operation. At the moment Project M (Munkoyo) is delivering unconcentrated ROM to Sable for processing. In order to reach the target of filling Sable, both of these operations will require a modular concentrator. That isn't likely to happen much before the end of this calendar year at the earliest... probably later.

Maybe try reading the last RNS before making stupid statements like that butch123, it's all in there.

Good to see the CFO buying shares today.

Dorfan, I think it’s reasonable to say that the current SP can be justified by the South African business alone, which seems to be going from strength to strength at the moment. Of course we can’t predict future commodity price movements but the case for a higher chrome price seems solid, with logistical issues in SA as well as dwindling shallow reserves. PGM’s are also expected to recover at some stage.

I think many investors just want to see solid evidence of Roan up and running and proof that the same modular approach used in chrome can be successfully applied to copper. Once that proof is provided I think there will be a strong recovery in the SP. I have some funds available to add to Jubilee but I’m holding back for that very reason. I also have some concerns about the power issues in Zambia, I’d like to see some clarity on that before I add more.

As we have now started the new financial year, I thought I'd give a summary of my estimated average metals prices for each of the quarters in FY2024:

https://t.ly/pylbn

You can see that in the last quarter there were improvements across the board, apart from cobalt of course, which has quietly disappeared from the company website... at least for now!