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3CB, have a look at the last set of results, it should give you a clue about what to expect for this period and the coming ones.

Dorfan, certainly for those with a longer term view I think we have cleared a major hurdle to creating a hugely profitable business in the years ahead, assuming someone doesn't come in to buy the company out before it reaches its potential.

Short term there are still headwinds to negotiate, like funding for the new acquisitions and modules (hopefully not through further share issues, as Leon indicated in the interview) but the future is bright and the sky is the limit as far as expansion goes. It's now very easy to see this following the same trajectory as chrome over the next couple of years.

Frankly I'm amazed that all of the talk has been about short term production targets and nobody is talking about the fact that the modular concentrator technology has been proved to work. This is absolutely fundamental to the whole strategy in Zambia and was a big unknown until now. They have just unlocked the safe... it will be a while longer before they can open the door.

Gray, yes it is pretty convoluted. Basically they are saying that the basic tolling is the US$4-5 / tonne but the fine chrome which they get as a freebie along with the PGM rich concentrate, increases the overall revenue / tonne to US$9 based on the exchange rate at the time and US$135 / tonne concentrate price.

Windsor 8 is a JV with the owner, where Jubilee is the operator and earns 70% of the revenue. It also states the cost of buying RoM at 400 rand / tonne and that the cost to buy increases at about 70% of any increase in concentrate price.

All far too complicated to work out! I tried in the past and got nowhere.

Gray I'm thinking that 4% might include the 'free' fine chrome which Jubilee extract before putting the remaining material through the PGM circuit.

This is taken from the 2021 research note:

"Revenues for the chrome plants are linked to a fixed margin to process the ROM. This is linked to a minimum yield of chrome (which we understand to be ~60%). Importantly processing the chrome ore gives Jubilee the rights to the waste tails for the PGM content. The fixed margin effectively pays Jubilee to pre-concentrate its ore and allow the recovery of the PGMs at its Inyoni plant. The fixed margin we set at R60-75/t ($4-5/t) – we use a higher figure for Inyoni where we account for the market price for the chrome recovered from its own tailings at market price in our overall Net Revenue figure of R135/t ($9/t); the majority of chrome produced is returned to Samancor. Costs of buying ROM for Windsor 8 set at R400/t at a chrome concentrate price of $135/t CIF 42% chrome. This will vary slightly with source (MG or LG), with grade and with the CIF price for chrome concentrate (perhaps taking roughly 70% of the increase in percentage terms). We assume no change in ROM price in our model and unless the CIF prices increases drastically we don’t think it will have too much of an impact on our numbers. Any profits are shared between the JV partner and Jubilee (70% to Jubilee). The operating cost for the chrome gravity plants is small – We vary this by plant but the cost is generally in the range R105-150/t ore processed ($7-10/t). "

What was the date of that RNS Gray? I’ll try and find the old research note from 2021 which explained in a bit of detail how the tolling rate was calculated. Not sure if I have a copy of it.

Very bullish interview from Leon I thought.

On the chrome, he stated a target of 15% margin. On the market rate material that would currently equate to about US$46 / tonne. The tolling material is something like US$4 / tonne so once they are at 50% split on tolling / market rate that would equate to US$25 / tonne. Very much in line with what I was estimating for the last period. I think we should expect very decent chrome numbers when we finally see them.

Frog you clearly haven't understood what's been announced or you wouldn't be making such ridiculous claims. They announced 25k tonnes of copper CAPACITY.

Strange that someone who claims to be a multi million shareholder has such little understanding of their investment. Maybe do a bit of reading eh?

Frog, if you actually read these boards how can you possibly have come to the conclusion that they were expecting 25k of copper in 2025?! We've been discussing it for weeks!

They shot themselves in the foot by not releasing any financial data for the last quarter. If as I assume, the chrome numbers were very positive then maybe people could have appreciated the big picture. People who took the time to understand how that 25k capacity will be filled should not be particularly surprised to see the copper forecast (although it was a bit lower than even I anticipated) but most punters don't bother to do that so all they are probably seeing is a lacklustre copper forecast and a lower than expect PGM output. Chrome probably doesn't even come into the equation because they have no idea about the margin.

What we know about Roan is the new front end is performing within its design parameters and concentrating the low grade material more than 10 times.

What we don't know about Roan is what is the starting grade ? Also what is the throughput? It's all very well saying 5000 tonnes cu / year from the 50,000 tpm module at a starting grade of 1.5% but if you are only putting (for example) 20,000 tpm through it you are going to fall short. From what I remember they are looking to add extra feed sources at Roan, presumably to bring it up to capacity.

You're not going to get a nice steady rise each day. A lot of cheap shares were bought on the way down and people will have their own targets to sell. It's going to take time to shake them off, or a catalyst, like good assay results to really get things moving.

Heroric is a trader and can be ignored. He does the same whenever there's a dip but never contributes a damn thing otherwise.

Did I say we are relying on the IRH deal? I said the concentrator performance is key to the whole strategy including the IRH deal, and so far it appears to be working well.

Northern, it’s still early days with Roan still ramping up so let’s see how it goes. The key thing for me is the more than 10 x concentration of source material by the new front end. That’s key for the whole strategy and it appears to be working as designed.

There’s a new Zeus research note out this morning too, haven’t read it fully yet but still see fair value at 11p / share.

That’s for project G which was already known about.

Frustrating that they didn’t include any financial info highlighting the chrome margin, now we have to wait for the audited results to find out.

Good news that Roan is performing well, upgrading material more than 10 times. Also highlighting the significance to the IRH project.

Copper guidance is slightly disappointing even with revised expectations but highlights the need to get the processing modules in place to up production.

I would assume he's talking about Thutse there rather than tolling agreements but maybe not.

Https://miningaim.co.uk/charles-archer-blog/f/arc-tagged-2p-yesterday-rome-hits-tin-immediately

A nice little summary. Nothing seasoned investors here wouldn't know already but a good read for any newer people.

Gray, maybe I should have made it more obvious (apart from the column headings!) that some of the data is quarterly and some is half year, the US$94 / tonne is interpolated from the columns either side of it.

The tolling percentages for H1FY24 are from the report presentation. I'm assuming that there will be no further increase in tolled chrome and only market rate will be increasing, thats where the 52% / 48% comes from but its only an estimate, it could be wrong.

I thought that the RNS stated that they had extended the tolling deal for a number of years but I don't remember anywhere (apart from speculation on here) that the tolling margin had increased. Maybe I missed something?

I would hope we are closer to the top of your range, ie, US$30 / tonne margin but there are always unknowns which might bite us in the proverbial. With no load shedding for a long time it should have a positive impact on costs.

Well he did give an update not long ago in the interview, that was less than 2 weeks ago.