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Https://www.miningweekly.com/article/flooded-mine-in-congo-is-latest-threat-to-global-copper-supply-2025-05-30

Ivanhoe due to issue a statement next week on the status but it doesn’t sound good. This has the potential to wipe out a big chunk of global copper surplus and could push prices much higher… one to watch!

Hi Dru, I did have a look around Mumbwa but didn't find anything that looks like the plant thats on the Grovenor Resources website. I did find some quite interesting video clips on Youtube which I think are from the Grovenor site, here's one: https://youtu.be/vzq2USVVjD8

It's described as a copper / silver / gold mine and I'm not sure if they are panning for gold at the end of the clip? I might be wrong there.

It’s certainly been an incredibly frustrating few years as far as Zambia is concerned. I can deal with delays caused by external factors like the power and water issues, I spent many years working up and down the West African coast so I’m very aware of what the challenges can be like. What does annoy me though is the tendency to not even acknowledge when a target has been missed, just be honest with investors, it builds trust.

Despite all the issues, what I’m focused on is the fact that they have confirmed Roan DMS can process the mixed oxide / sulphide material with the recovery being very close to what they had said before operations started (~65%). Yes the throughput is lower than hoped but I guess that can be changed in future iterations of the modules. That bodes well for the Large Waste Project… I just want to see a deal go ahead sooner rather than later. I think that would put a rocket under the SP for sure.

In the meantime yes you are probably right to take anything in the RNS’s with a pinch of salt… I guess my glass is naturally half full but for how much longer I’m not sure!

Jonah, yes the RNS are always a puzzle to be slowly unpicked and usually leaving more questions than answers. I had hoped to see an improvement in that area but sadly it doesn't look like it's going to happen. I guess you meant Munkoyo rather than Grovenor but I expect if they implement that on one mine they will likely do the same on all of them, I just hope that ultimately it will benefit shareholders through faster implementation whatever arrangement they come to.

Some strange omissions from the RNS, unless I missed it, there was no mention that they had taken up the option to buy the Large Waste Project despite the deadline already passing... I guess we have to assume that as they are already selling some of it, the deal must have been agreed!

Zambia is just coming out of the rainy season and so I presume drilling was on hold until the ground had firmed up, why didn't they mention that instead of just ignoring it? Frustrating.

One thing to bear in mind, it's not just the number of copper units that matters, it's also the margin on each copper unit. Previously much of what Jubilee has produced has been sulphide concentrate, you can deduce that from the revenue / tonne of copper which recently has been US$6,000-US$6,500. Leon has said that the majority of Roan's output now will be oxides for processing to cathode, roughly 85% if what he said still holds true. That means the revenue / tonne (for Roan) should be somewhere closer to US$9,000 / tonne at current prices.

On another note, I see the significant shareholders list has been updated today, only one change, Canaccord Genuity has sold 10m shares over the last month.

I just knocked up a quick spreadsheet to illustrate the expected roll out of the various copper projects. Roan and Munkoyo are based on the numbers in the RNS, Grovenor I've assumed for now is a carbon copy of Munkoyo, although the were forecasting it to be about twice the production rate previously so I might be underselling it there. There's nothing included for the Large Waste Project so if they did get a deal sorted and start turning out modules, you could add approximately 4,000 tpy for each module (based on Roan).

https://tinyurl.com/23yufz77

I asked a question about that in the last investor call Northern. They did start processing material from Grovenor at the start of the year as indicated, but that was just a trial to confirm they could process it at Sable. Currently it's still in the drilling stage to define the pit so not shipping material to Sable.

Someone mentioned previously that the assets that Jubilee were selling were the lead / zinc / vanadium stockpiles at Sable and the RNS today seems to back that up;

"In addition, the Company has identified certain non-core assets in Zambia and has concluded the sale of one of its waste assets outside of its large Cu tailings for a combined consideration of US$12.3 million, payable in tranches over the next 20 months."

So not selling the copper tailings. I wonder if this is connected with Shuka Minerals who are doing a deal to acquire the largescale mining license which sits alongside Sable, with a plan to start mining again.

I think the one key thing to take from the RNS is that the Roan recovery percentage of ~65% is very much in line with what was forecast, with the potential for that to be higher if they get the glycine leaching working. The lower throughput rate of 35,000-40,000 is a bit of a disappointment when we were initially told it was a 50,000 tpm module, but I guess on future modules they can always upscale to increase the throughput.

Morning Gray, agreed it's not quite the giddy heights we were lead to expect many months ago but at the same time its a solid enough base to build on and with much more to come over time. I guess Zeus is factoring in Project G which 'should' produce at about twice the rate of Munkoyo if the numbers we were given are correct. I'll need to read it all again when more awake but on first look I'd say it's reasonably positive without being earth shattering. We need more detailed info on costs, revenue / tonne etc. to know exactly how good it is.

From the Zeus note today:

"Zeus view. The update provided today is welcome and puts some data into the public domain on progress and plans in Zambia. We do not have the capital cost and operating cost information (yet) but we infer that by this time next year Jubilee is expecting copper production at a capacity of 14,000t cathode equivalent per year. We are not yet in a position to properly forecast Jubilee but if i) previous operating costs can be confirmed (~$5,000/t); ii) stated recoveries can be achieved at the bigger-scale required; iii) copper price is maintained at ~$9,000/t, and; iv) the sale of any copper sulphide concentrates is on the same basis as recovery of copper through Sable, then we would expect an EBITDA from the combined Roan-Munkoyo-Project G-Sable complex to be at a run rate in the order of $50m/year – 14kt copper at a profit margin of $4,000/t (copper price of $9,000/t and a cost of $5,000/t). So, if copper production and previous cost guidance can be reiterated and copper production meets expectations then the prize for sorting out production in Zambia will be large and should translate through to the share price which is not currently factoring much in for Zambia at all – in our view. We expect further updates from Jubilee to clarify operating parameters and costs and provide details on progress. Note, this is all before any other inputs from the Large Waste Project which has been previously stated as capable of producing ~20,000t per year of copper units. Production through Roan-Sable and the Large Waste Project at full capacity would make Jubilee a copper producer of scale. "

Platinum at around US$1,100 / oz this morning, although rhodium has dropped back a little. The estimated PGM basket today is US$1,558 which compares well with the average for the year to date of US$1,437.

SA 40-42% Chrome still at US$295-300 / tonne this week.

Q4 in South Africa is looking to be very positive, as long as Zambia is starting to stand on it's own feet (finally) and cover it's own costs then the SA numbers should be good with a much lower CAPEX spend and a stronger chrome margin due to Thutse 2 & 3 in full production and lower ROM purchase costs.

Despite what marine /courdeleon say, the next RNS is absolutely critical to the future trajectory of the company and the share price. I certainly don't blame people for being annoyed by the company again failing to meet its own deadlines (twice). With a bank holiday next week it will be Tuesday now at the earliest before we get any update... at least they should be able to give an accurate guidance with us only being weeks away from the end of the year!

Platinum and palladium up again this morning, the PGM basket certainly looks to have broken out of its general trading range over the last two years which must be adding impetus to the share rally. A bit of a perfect storm brewing if only Jubilee can deliver in copper....

https://tinyurl.com/4xnr4n5y

Well there's a reasonable chance of seeing an RNS in the morning as they often favour the Thursday RNS. If it's a positive one then yes we should see good upwards momentum and I may be throwing my piggy bank at the share. If it's not positive however I think you'll find that the share can very much go in both directions!

I wonder how much of this is a reaction to the PGM prices?, platinum at US$1070 and palladium at US$1037 after the latest update from New York on Johnson Matthey website:

https://matthey.com/products-and-markets/pgms-and-circularity/pgm-management

Platinum now at its highest in about 2 years! Palladium also over US$1,000 / oz. Long may it continue.

I did say I thought that two weeks to process the remaining two ore types might be optimistic given it took six weeks to process the other four. Maybe three weeks might be more realistic? Anyway it’s now been three weeks so hopefully we should get some news before the end of this week.

It's interesting that before the new feed source at Roan, Leon had talked about a 60/40 split between oxides and sulphides, which obviously has implications for the overall revenue / tonne of copper. Since the processing of the new feed, he has said that only roughly 15% of Roan's output will be sulphides for direct sale with the rest going to Sable for processing to cathode. If that does turn out to be the case, it means the average revenue / tonne would be much closer to LME price than I originally thought.

If they can take some of the load away from hydro power it will allow the Kariba reservoir to slowly recover to much healthier levels so they should then be in a much better position all around.

To be fair, a total power grid collapse is not something you can really plan for, that's an extremely unusual event. As long as there is no drought in the next year it shouldn't be a problem in the future. Zambia are rolling out diversification measures to move away from over reliance on hydro power. Solar plants are popping up around the country and I believe they plan to expand the coal fired power station.