Member Info for SeisNav

"74,698,795 shares x £0.0415 = £3,010,000 (rounded up)"

It actually comes to £3.1m rounded up so presumably there has been some confusion over pounds and dollars. I might contact the company to confirm.

I thought you were looking to sell your last couple of million Edzi? The price has gone up… now’s your chance!

It said a private company not a listed company. Samancor would be my guess as their operations are already integrated with Jubilee’s.

Would you buy a company hoping that the metals price stays at historic highs or would you look to see what the longer term average has been?

If the price is too low that vote it down. Or wait to see if another company comes in with a better offer.

I’m sure they are taking into account long term metals prices too, what happens if chrome drops back to US$200 / tonne? We certainly wouldn’t be anywhere near as profitable.

Oldrongo, just to give an indication, for every US$200 increase in the price of platinum it adds roughly US$100 / ounce to the bottom line. That means for 40,000 ounces production it would add US$4m.

I guess there's always the possibility of another offer coming in for the SA business if others think it's undervalued at that price... just a thought!

You might want to check your copper price there Kalan.

I do hope you're not running multiple accounts Homey / Bushy.... I'm just going to ask the moderator to check because that will get a person banned.

I thought Homey must have died... sadly I see I was mistaken! 😂

Nelson, I don't usually try and go much beyond estimating the gross profit, so many unknowns beyond that, but my gross profit estimate for this year (for SA) would be around US$40-42m.

The problem is with chrome, historically it's hugely volatile in price, varying between US$100-300+ so that would massively affect profitability. We are still quite close to historic highs at the moment so you could argue it might be the best time to sell.

PGM's have been flat for the last couple of years, just picking up a little recently but that doesn't make a massive difference to the bottom line, we would need to see prices climb much higher to make them attractive again. That may happen or it may not, the outlook for PGM's is quite confused at the moment.

They were talking about Roan heap leach testing with glycine at the start of the year so I guess it was successful. That should push recoveries up towards 70% from 65% from what they previously said.

The paragraph about additional feed that can be processed immediately has got me confused.... does that mean that Roan was only limited to 35,000-40,000 tpm throughput because they couldn't supply enough feed to it? If that's the case then things are more positive than I thought.

Hopefully Leon is going to hold an investor call to explain the rationale in more detail. There are lots of questions.

Realistically they could make about US$45m GROSS profit assuming chrome prices remain at this level. If they vary like we saw earlier in the year it would be considerably less than that. There's no way we would make US$100m net over the next 2 years without a big rise in PGM's. That's not taking into account rising costs in South Africa eating into profits over time. I'll leave it to better qualified people than me to decide if it's a fair valuation or not but to me it seems reasonable.

What would be a fair price in your view Nelson?

Before the new front end module at Roan was operational, they were processing lower grade tailings through the milling and floatation circuit to extract sulphides. The sulphide concentrates are then sold into the market for further processing. A tonne of copper contained in sulphide concentrate sells for a lower price than a tonne of 99.99% pure copper cathode, hence why the revenue / tonne last financial year was just under US$7000 / tonne when the average LME copper price was ~US$8,700.

The new feed is mainly copper oxide with a small percentage of sulphides (that's according to Leon) so most of what is produced will be processed at Sable to copper cathode, attracting the full LME price. That means the average revenue / tonne should be much higher, hopefully somewhere close to US$9,000 / tonne at current LME price. What we don't yet know is what the average cost would be once they start to produce at the maximum rate.

The actual number of tonnes Roan will produce isn't actually that much more than before but the margin should be better. The frustrating thing is that they are now only processing the higher grade ore rather than in addition to what they were already processing. I guess there's a valid reason why they can't do that but we have't been told what it is. It doesn't help that the module was supposed to be rated for 50,000 tonnes / month throughput to produce 5,000 tonnes of copper oxide / year. In reality they are now talking about 35,000-40,000 tonnes / month. Hopefully they can push that up once in regular production.

Good to see RBC raising the target to 7.3p from 7.1p, I guess they saw the positives in the last RNS.

I think the sale of the 10m tonnes of waste is more about raising money to buy the project than anything else. They still had US$11.5m to pay to acquire the Large Waste Project, ~US$6.75m from the sale of 10m tonnes plus the sale of Jubilee's own stockpiles for US$12.3m (over 20 months) should allow them to pay off the remaining sum without needing to raise cash.

In addition they will get information from the 'traditional' processing method that the buyer would normally use to act as a baseline to compare against Jubilee's recommended processing method. I suspect the buyer is probably KCM because they have a large tailings reprocessing plant right next to the LWP. It may be a pre-cursor to a JV with KCM (potentially) or it might not.

Four years ago we were making US$80m gross profit from PGM's, if that happens again I'm sure we will hit 20p again. That's not really relevant to the current situation though. Make no mistake, if we didn't have the copper side of the business we would be sitting at a much higher SP than we are, chrome and PGM's are very profitable but being dragged down by copper. All they need to do is hit their own pretty lowly targets with a decent margin (at least US$3000 / tonne) and the copper business should start to be self supporting and then we should slowly start to make progress. The problem is the market has lost faith due to continued problems and missed targets.

Gray, the chrome margin is a bit of a guesstimate, I think longer term the average would be about US$15 / tonne at the current chrome price, assuming no big swings in the price like we saw at the start of the year. Anyway time will tell.

I'm hoping they pull their finger out and sign an agreement with someone soon to start manufacturing the modules, that would certainly lift sentiment as well as potentially contributing copper tonnes to next years total. It sounds like they are potentially looking for someone to finance both the modules and also the leaching plants at Munkoyo / Grovenor:

"Discussions over funding for processing plants on site at the Company's mining projects, also extend to the Large Waste Project"