Member Info for SeisNav

On the subject of cobalt, I thought I’d take a look at how our 1,200 Tonnes / annum of contained cobalt fits in to the global picture:

https://tinyurl.com/mwjs978f

At the moment it would account for less than 1% of world production but once we have the northern refinery in operation that could easily become 2-3% of world production. Not bad when you consider that after the DRC the next biggest producer is Russia at 4.4%.

It’s because (according to the WH Ireland research note) we are only expecting to receive approximately 80% of the price paid for refined cobalt metal.

There’s no guarantee that the Cyprus deal is totally dead, the person buying the operations from Caerus is one of the original Caerus directors, before they were replaced by the new management. They still have plans to develop a mine so might also want to persue the Jubilee option.

Personally I’d rather they focus on Zambia at the moment though, plenty to be getting on with there.

You pay your money and take your chance… we know they are already processing the licenses, they may even be ‘fast-tracked’ (if there is such a thing in Africa). News could come at any time. Also we have the assay results from Botswana on the way, and those drill locations are right next to a Khoemacau priority exploration target….

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CMRS/sale-of-cyprus-assets-lk5uhdchnkzmgxp.html

Thanks for the info JLPP, I wasn’t aware of the potential problems with hydro power in Zambia and yes that is certainly a concern. Hopefully Jubilee are looking to put in backup power in Zambia as well as South Africa. Yes the US$100m I estimated is at the top end of what is achievable and may be too optimistic, given the power issues. I guess we have to wait for the next set of results to see what the real effects of those issues are.

I’m only seeing half the conversation but I guess you are talking about the two zamsort licenses in the cadastre… looks like good news to me as that means they are processing our licenses! Game very much ON!

On the subject of the Mufilira s l a g dump project, the deadline for expressions of interest is this Friday, 9th December, so there might be some news on that front before too long.

Thanks for your replies all,

Charles, I’d also like to see quarterly reporting become the norm as would we all I’m sure. This is from Ollie’s introduction on the website:

“ Jubilee is at a set of important crossroads and to reach the next level of growth it requires a greater level of clear communication with shareholders, and of strategic direction and the consequential requirement of discipline, process, risk management and structure. These are areas where I can assist both the Board and the Executive team.”

Hopefully more regular reporting falls within this.

As far as Zambia goes, I seem to remember that Leon said in the presentation that regular water supply was the main issue in Zambia, to be addressed by new infrastructure this month. They are still quoting a target of 10,000 tonnes Cu this year so I hope any impact is minimal.

HD, I think our previous best half year figures were H1 2022 at US$31.5 m so if we do make my estimate then it will be a new high, despite falling copper and PGM prices and increasing costs.

Dorfan, it’s good to know you are calculating similar numbers, yes I do calculate earnings in pounds as well as dollars in my sheet, maybe I should include that as a comparison.

I agree a small dividend would attract more interest in the company but I don’t expect to see one until the next phase of expansion is done. We have potentially 2 refineries to upgrade, two concentrators to build, a new PGM facility on the Eastern Limb to upgrade / build, and then there’s the mystery project with the Mufilira s l a g dumps which we might be involved with… that’s a lot of investment, although it will be phased over the next couple of years and we should see lower grade early cash flow from the refineries while building the concentrators.

https://tinyurl.com/57dvmpxk

I’ve modified my spreadsheet to reflect how Jubilee are presenting unit costs, that is, applying a chrome / cobalt credit to offset costs. As long as they stick with this method going forward I personally don’t have a problem with it. The charts for revenue / costs have had the chrome / cobalt credits applied from FY2021 onwards. I’m assuming that the current copper costs Leon quoted of US$4,500 / tonne were without any cobalt credit applied so applying that for this year brings the estimated cost down to around US$3,600 / tonne. That’s before any contribution from the new sulphide leaching process.

I’ve applied a 10% reduction to chrome and PGM production for H2 due to the load shedding in South Africa (I’m assuming it’s one of the smaller chrome plants which has been affected, if it was Inyoni that would be a much bigger issue).

I still think that earnings of US$100m for the year are achievable if we reach the stated production targets and there are no hidden problems yet to be revealed! I estimate about US$38m for the first half of the year and US$64m for the second half.

Added a bit more to the blog, just a little about the Khoemacau drilling at Zone 9 on our NE border, taken from their website:

“Zone 9 was drilled over 1.5km strike to 170m below surface. The target was identified as a fold closure adjacent to a basin high. A total of six holes defined the high-grade copper sulphides along the basin shelf. The overall architecture showed intact facies distribution with the basin deepening toward the north-east. Abundant north, north-east trending structures and parasitic folds are seen on the aeromagnetics. Further drilling and follow up is warranted at this prospect to define continuity along strike and depth.“

I’m sure they will be interested in our assay results when released, especially as they are so close to ‘Banana Peel’ priority exploration target.

https://seisnav.blogspot.com/2022/07/arc-minerals-in-kalahari-copperbelt.html

“ We know of no other geophysical technology that directly detects deep, chargeable copper mineralization at depths of over 3,000 feet. ”

I don’t think we need to worry about going that deep!

From what I've read, the mineralisation in the 'Zone 5' mine is reasonably high grade and in thinner layers. Typically 10m thick across steeply dipping planes. The drilling at South Dome and Zone 9 seems to be of similar thickness, so I don't think we should be disappointed if we see assay results similar to those... it may be that we are part of a bigger picture extending over several license areas.

Thanks to Turtle for the Khoemacau info. I've added a bit to the Botswana blog:

https://seisnav.blogspot.com/2022/07/arc-minerals-in-kalahari-copperbelt.html

That's the kind of Banana Peel you wouldn't mind slipping on.

https://www.mining.com/web/bmw-invests-in-low-carbon-copper-firm-jetti/

“ Since Jetti’s technology involves leaching instead of smelting, it requires less power and cuts CO2 emissions by about 40%, according to US-based Jetti.

“This new process has the potential to improve the environmental footprint and integrity of our supply chain, even with growing demand for resources like copper,” said Wolfgang Obermaier, head of indirect goods and services for BMW.”

Seems like a good time to be releasing news that Jubilee is now planning to leach copper from sulphides rather than smelt it!

I’d assumed that Jubilee were doing all of the plant design and construction work ‘in-house’ but yesterday I noticed this South African company who list Jubilee Metals amongst their clients. Maybe they have been contracting that work out after all?

https://met63.com/

I wonder if they might put in a bid for this Mopani s l a g reprocessing contract with Jubilee doing the process sheets and Met63 the design and construction work?

The 8.5 million warrant shares were admitted to trading yesterday. Just a heads up in case the SP takes a hit!

Starting to see new license applications popping up in the Cadastre since the re-opening on 21st.

Surprised to see Ella here, I thought she would still be trying to xtract herself from that hole in the ground in Australia :-)

Thanks BB2,

That being the case, for a full 12 month period we might expect in the region of US$22 million in cobalt earnings, or expressed as cobalt credit, US$1,850 per copper tonne, based on 12,000 tonnes of copper per annum.

As Jonah says, it would be good to know if this will be a reliable income stream or not.

On a side note, it would be good to know which email address you use to contact the company because the official one on the website never produces any response in my experience.