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I had to have a look what Travelcard was writing after seeing him described as a ‘chump’ on Twitter. I wasn’t disappointed! I’m beginning to suspect that he may not be the city big shot he claims to be… his grasp of basic finances is pish!

Leon said they would be announcing the details of cobalt quality and expected sales price ‘soon’ once they had established the quality they are producing. Until then I’ve been using the 20% figure stated in the research note. There must be some production costs associated with the cobalt hydroxide, I’m using US$1,000/tonne in the absence of any other information. I’m assuming they have ramped up to 100 tonnes / month of cobalt hydroxide by the end of the year.

I think we should expect some impact from load shedding on chrome and PGM production this period. Leon said ‘most’ of the facilities had backup power… as we only have 3 chrome plants plus Inyoni does that mean only one chrome plant was affected? I’m allowing 5% reduction in chrome / PGM’s for the period. Hopefully that should be a thing of the past from next month.

In Zambia, they have addressed the issue of water shortages with new infrastructure being installed shortly. As was mentioned in the recent article they now have to ensure the facilities can operate normally during the rainy season. They still have 10,000 tonnes as a target for the year.

With those provisos, I’ve updated my spreadsheet with the latest information and I’m estimating earnings for this period of around US$40 million and for the next period of US$55 million, that’s US$95 million for the financial year.

https://tinyurl.com/mt2cmu6r

Here’s an updated warrant list taking into account recently exercised and expired warrants. It seems very likely that we will see more weakness in the share price over the coming month as the expiry date for the 44 million 6.12p shares approaches. Following that, with the next set of results due, we should (hopefully) expect a recovery in share price, in my opinion. I didn’t intend to buy more shares but if I can free up funds from another investment in the next few weeks it might be too good an opportunity to miss.

Mikie, yes it’s good to see they are still targeting 10,000 tonnes of Cu this financial year. We don’t seem to have been impacted too greatly by water shortages. Now we just have to see if we are impacted by excess water during the rainy season! Hopefully not.

Red I guess that article is already a little out of date as Leon said in the last presentation that they were in advanced negotiations to to buy a disused refinery and to partner with the existing owner in another to give the potential for 40,000 tpa of copper. Unless things have changed again of course! Hopefully all will be made clear before too long.

Nick said in the Investor Call following the JV announcement that all of our areas fall within the JV (apart from the 6km2 around Kalaba that we have given up).

As part of the renewal process it’s normal to relinquish half of the license area each time, to avoid people sitting on licenses indefinitely without exploring them. My guess is that we will be putting in new applications for the areas given up. There may also be applications for new licenses. There are some vey obvious ones around our current licenses which could be of strategic value to the JV.

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/roans-success-to-be-duplicated-in-north-2022-11-18

https://audioboom.com/posts/8197813-midweek-takeaway-copper-gold-special-featuring-colin-bird-leon-coetzer-and-shaun-day-ggp-jlp

Uncle Colin talking up African Pioneer license (just up the road from us) in Zambia as Kamoa-Kakula type rather than typical Zambian. Take with a pinch of salt of course :-)

https://audioboom.com/posts/8197813-midweek-takeaway-copper-gold-special-featuring-colin-bird-leon-coetzer-and-shaun-day-ggp-jlp

https://tinyurl.com/2p9faw4n

I took this from the last annual report, the most up to date status of outstanding warrants. There are 7.8 million 4p warrants due to expire in 3 days time, then the majority of remaining warrants, 49 million at 6.12p expire on 19th January. We might see a steady take up of those up to January (or hopefully not!). These might be a deterrent to new investors right now but at least come the end of January the worst is over and done. That would also coincide with the next set of financial results… hopefully the catalyst to better times ahead!

They are all coming out of the woodwork today! I was just thinking this morning its been a nice quiet c***-free few days…. And they had to go and spoil it :-)

Not everyone will necessarily have the cash available to take up the warrants, they may have borrowed funds which need to be repaid… there are any number of reasons why they might need to sell rather than keep waiting. Anyway if its warrant shares, placing shares or a combination of the two, it doesn’t really matter, we know that eventually they are going to dry up and then there’s nothing else to hold the share back.

Personally I would stay well away from Chile at the moment, there has already been talk of nationalising copper production and although its been rejected for now, it would make me nervous about the future. Zambia is going down a much better path with stability in government and new practices in place to guard against corruption. As long as HH delivers on his promises the current government should have no problem getting re-elected.

As for dividends, that’s not why I’m here. I started investing in Jubilee when the price was 2-3p. I don’t intend to sell anytime soon, I’m here for long term growth. If we get dividends too, as expected following completion of the Northern strategy… all the better.

Also Amerigo seems to have all its eggs in one basket, albeit a very profitable one. Jubilee has diversified from Chrome and PGM’s into Copper and now Cobalt. I like the diversification strategy, in both metals and jurisdiction.

Looks like Ella has a degree in stating the bleedin obvious :-) Yes there are no more 3p warrants left as I already said. They are still being sold into the market though…. Not for much longer. This is the obvious time to buy if that’s what you are waiting for as the price will likely bump along at this level until news is announced and / or the warrant shares have dried up.

Lots of 3p warrants have been issued this year, looks like they are still being trickled into the market. It’s been happening since at least July so can’t be many left to sell off! That’s the last of them, the only other ones of any note are 11 million at 4.5p. Once that drag is gone it should be free to move upwards.

It’s also worth pointing out that the targets Cheyeza East, Muswema and Lumbeta all fall within the Handa Resources License, which is not up for renewal, just the divestment of 6km2 around the Kabala plant as per the settlement agreement.

I notice that another bidding area has been opened up in the Cadastre. It falls on the arc which joins the nearby Teir 1 mines and also passes through our major targets. It just reminded me of this image….

https://twitter.com/NavSeis/status/1592480145084133376?s=20&t=L7jrFF3YucGKVvP99qLFBQ

Yes… signatures in wet ink.

Jubilee’s first concentrator was fully ramped up 2 months ago, they process material from multiple sources, including artisanal mining. It’s probably a bit soon to be expecting detailed recovery information don’t you think? After all, the operation at El Teniente has been going for 30 years, processing material from one mine. After that period of time it’s very easy to produce statistics… I doubt they were doing that after 2 months!

One comparison we can make is cost to produce a tonne of copper. Amerigo is around US$3,900 (after 30 years) and Jubilee is US$4,500 (after 2 months). We can expect Jubilees costs to continue to fall quite a bit further.

I’m just going off the numbers from the research note:

“Cobalt is production of cobalt hydroxide containing ~20% cobalt – so roughly 1.6kt/yr of cobalt contained from 2024 onwards. We believe that Jubilee will receive 80% of the cobalt price for the contained cobalt in the cobalt hydroxide.”

It does say that this comes from WH Ireland research (Info from Jubilee directly is credited as such) so may or may not be accurate. As I said, some clarification would be good if anyone has the opportunity at the meeting,

Some related questions I had, Leon stated the current production costs for copper at US$4,500 / tonne. Does this include any cobalt credit already? Is anything included for the new fast leeching method? If not then we might eventually see production costs for copper closer to US$3,000 / tonne, maybe lower depending on the actual contained cobalt percentage.