Member Info for SeisNav

Here's the latest soil anomaly in relation to the Enterprise and Sentinel mines:

https://twitter.com/navseis/status/1701533033659036059?s=61&t=iYhAmu6LqrFMawF30nXMyA

Chambishi Copper Smelter (CCS) is a wholly Chinese owned operation a short distance away from Chambishi Metals. The two plants are not connected so the notice is not relevant to Chambishi Metals.

Leon has said that we were in advanced negotiations to secure a copper - cobalt refinery for the North, with a capacity of 40,000 Tpa of copper and 5,000 Tpa of cobalt metal. A previously undisclosed outstanding tax issue with the correct owner was holding up completion.

The Zambian President and Minister for Mines have both said that Chambishi Metals current owner, ERG, are in advanced negotiations to sell the plant to a new investor, however an outstanding tax issue was holding up the deal. In the most recent interviews, the minister for Mines indicated that the tax issues may now be resolved.

If you can find me another copper - cobalt refinery which has the capacity Leon stated, is up for sale but has outstanding tax issues, and is close to our operations…. Then I might believe that this is just a remarkable coincidence!

The recent post from Slater indicated that the bank providing finance for the northern expansion was waiting on lab results before releasing funds… that may now be the outstanding issue in completing the transaction.

Oh and Ella10 is a devious individual who posts on many boards under many account names…. Not to be trusted.

Wow, the muppets are out in force tonight… is it possible they missed the boat…. Oh dear, how sad, never mind eh 😁

Yes it was the ARCM board that alerted me to the interview, it wouldn’t surprise me if that was the first Arc had heard about it too, if it was only signed off today! They may have to issue some kind of RNS about it but as the process is still ongoing I’m not sure what they can say really. The Zambians don’t seem to worry too much about the markets, the President has already openly discussed the Chambishi Metals situation in an interview, as highlighted by Leon…. It’s always worth checking these interviews… you never know what snippets you’re going to pick up!

You still here Nortesco?! Go on, cheer up and I’ll buy you a haggis 😂

I was waiting for the sly deramp to come… hope you didn’t get caught out, or worse still caught short! 😁

Nice bit of news for Arc, sounds like the transfers are done and now to merge with the additional licenses…. Finally the end is in sight!

For any holder of Jubilee Metals you might want to keep listening until 57 minutes….

Https://fb.watch/mVs80MkQx6/

Have a listen from 57 minutes… sounds like an announcement might be very close, tax issues agreements have been reached.

Couldn’t keep that one to myself!🍾👍

My reason for investing was the Mupala license in Zambia. I'd draw your attention to page 11 of the latest presentation:

https://www.tertiaryminerals.com/filemanager/presentations/20230824%20TYM_Investor_Presentation.pdf

TYM were recently awarded the Mupala license (32139-HQ-LEL) having beaten Anglo American to it. The license is directly connected to the JV with Arc Minerals and I predicted that Anglo would go after it (which they did) but they were not quick enough. The license covers an area of very prospective geology, here's the Arc Minerals geophysical / geochemical data which shows the anomalies continuing into the TYM license:

https://twitter.com/navseis/status/1664584026848468999?s=61&t=Oh1YDasv0PSwhf5bEnHpgg

https://twitter.com/navseis/status/1697547653012242730?s=61&t=Oh1YDasv0PSwhf5bEnHpgg

I wouldn't be surprised if Anglo approaches TYM about drilling that area or potentially doing a deal for the license.

Ha, you’re closer than you realise Mikie, I spent most of my working life on ships, although definitely not as captain!

Interesting for sure, but to be honest the financial analysis is outside my wheelhouse. I really need to do a bit of reading on that, to understand better how valuations are arrived at. I’m sure there are plenty of people here better qualified to offer an opinion on that than me.

One more thing!

I was just watching this on the World Platinum Council’s latest quarterly report:

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/heading-for-biggest-platinum-deficit-on-record-a-mere-six-weeks-of-above-ground-stocks-2023-09-05

With above ground stocks at record lows, it’s expected that platinum prices will start to reflect that…. It would see a good time to me to be jumping in to low cost PGM producers who are currently increasing production…. But hey, what do I know 😎

It occurred to me that it may not be obvious to everyone unless they are tracking it like I am, the PGM basket seems to have bottomed out over the last few weeks... so I thought I'd post it for anyone whose interested:

http://tinyurl.com/3jdf8kea

I'm probably going to stay away from the boards for a while, got other things to keep me occupied. There's news that's well overdue so here's hoping we soon get an update on:

Clearance to start building the chrome plant on the Eastern Limb

Expansion of the first new chrome plant

Signing on the second new chrome contract

Closing the deal on the Northern Refinery.

News on Mopani (due in the next couple of weeks according to Froneman) and how that might affect Jubilee and the Mufulira contract.

I'll be back when we get some news!

Maybe BT missed my calculation for FY2023. I’ll post it again just in case. Wouldn’t it be a shame if he missed the boat AGAIN! And remember we are being placed in the same bracket as SLP which has no copper or chrome to cushion against the fall in PGM’s.

http://tinyurl.com/2s37czby

I thought you’d be lying low after HUM’s performance today. I’m trying not to gloat… honest I am!

Looks like the KCM announcement is happening tomorrow:

https://x.com/zccmihplc/status/1698696624812249421?s=61

Waits for Outofluck and DiamondGeazer to discuss the fundamentals….

To be clear, I don’t mean we won’t earn anything from PGM’s this year, only that it’s too difficult to try and estimate with any accuracy what they might be. Once we get a bit of guidance from the Q1 numbers it should be easier to work out. In any case the chrome earnings should be considerably higher than any PGM earnings.

Hi Oldrongo, you would have to look at the spreadsheet to see exactly what I mean but in order to calculate the contribution of each element to the basket you need to multiply the average price x the estimated percentage of each element per ounce (the prill split) x the net smelter pay (to account for smelter losses and costs). So for example for platinum in Q4 it would be :

US$1040 x 60% x 84% = US$524 contribution to the basket. If you do that for each element and sum them together that should be the basket after smelter costs. Those numbers worked in 2022 but when I use them in FY2023 I find that there is a difference of about US$350-US$390 between the basket and the revenue / ounce that Jubilee has reported. I'd assumed that this might be due to increased smelter costs but now I'm wondering if it might be related to the lower PGM / chrome ratio we saw in FY2023. For the time being I'm applying a "smelter pay adjustment" which matches my calculations with the numbers in the RNS.

Also costs / ounce are around US$790 before applying any chrome credit, which really eats into the revenue per ounce. For Q1 FY2024 the average metals prices will be lower again so unless the transport and production costs come down (which they should at some point with the new contracts and increased production) then I think it's easier just to discount PGMs and calculate only the chrome earnings.

Mikie, I’ve done some rough estimates for the current year and assuming we hit the targets Leon stated, with current prices, earnings should comfortably exceed last year, and thats only including chrome and copper, I discounted PGM’s completely. Let’s see what the Q1 numbers look like, I expect we should have a pretty decent Q1, then a weaker Q2 as Roan is taken offline before picking up again in the second half of the year.

One thing I probably should have included… share price down more than 50% over the year, estimated earnings down about 30%.