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Rhodium already up 10% this week and CEO of Amplats expects more:

"Miller was specific on rhodium’s recovery saying the specialist metal would gain between $2,000 to $4,000 per ounce in price. “The value and use of rhodium is five or eight times the application of palladium in terms of substitution, so it should be higher,” he said."

https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/54679-amplats-ceo-says-metals-to-recover-15-to-20-as-market-prices-floor/

My calculations suggest a chrome credit at the start of the year somewhere near US$600 / ounce rising to approximately US$700 / ounce by the end of the year when the ramp up of the new chrome contract is completed. Pedja did say at some stage the all in cost after chrome credits could go negative and with costs stated at around US$700 / ounce it certainly makes those numbers plausible. I’ll re-asses after the Q1 numbers are out because obviously there’s extra fuel costs to take into account.

I didn’t look too closely at the numbers gotreal but both Leon and Pedja quoted the realised basket at the moment as US1000-1100, which fits with my estimate. The average for Q1 is less than the previous quarter. They also quoted all in costs of around US$700 / ounce, slightly less than previous quarters.

I don’t know if anyone else has noticed but the price of rhodium has being creeping up over the last few days, also iridium has been increasing steadily for the last week or two.

Thanks for the big up Agricore 😁 I haven’t looked in detail at your post yet, too early in the morning for me, but I will at some point. It’s good to have two independent and different approaches to the same calculation. I did do an updated spreadsheet for FY24 but I’m not going to post it until I’ve had time to go through all of the numbers properly.

One positive I took from yesterdays call, Leon and Pedja gave all of the numbers necessary to calculate the potential earnings from PGMs and it’s much better than I expected based on last years figures. So even at the current realised basket of US$1000-1100 earnings should be about US$13m for the year, and thats just for Inyoni, there should be more ounces available to process through the JV.

I notice you mentioned me using the retail chrome price in my calculations, actually that number is just for reference to track the quarterly average price. I’ve actually plotted the previous data points in order to be able to calculate the likely earnings / tonne at a particular chrome price. We should get an update on Q1 in the next couple of weeks so I’ll see how that fits with my calculations. I think people may well be surprised (to the upside) when the chrome numbers start coming through!

I note that Pedja said exactly what I’ve been saying all along and what the data shows, the share price is still being driven by PGM basket price with little understanding of the effect of chrome and copper on the earnings for the coming period. Let’s hope that our new CFO is able to communicate with the market more clearly and more frequently.

Cheers Nelson, yes happy to see that my numbers were very much in the ball park. I was happy with those numbers at the time and I don't see any reason not to be happy with them now! It just goes to show that most investors don't really do much research and just go off the headlines... if they did they would see that we have turned the corner in H2 and better to come in 2024. If I had spare cash in my investment pot I'd be buying but I don't at the moment.

Please don’t encourage him by replying, if you want to chat to him do it on the HUM board

Those results were pretty similar to what I forecast, I was slightly over optimistic on chrome earnings but EBITDA came in at within Us$0.8 m of what I estimated. A pretty solid set of results given the poor start to the year and market conditions.

… from TYM which highlights the major investments happening in Zambia at the moment, including AA / ARCM

https://x.com/tertiaryplc/status/1711693632288305505?s=61

I’ve no idea if the recent suggestion that the deal is being wrapped up is genuine or not but it’s clear that even the slightest hint that it is imminent is enough to move the share price. When it is announced then it’s clear the share price will move rapidly…. Why would you risk missing out? Traders got to trade I suppose.

Two of the most interesting projects in Zambia at the moment (in my view) are Mukai and Mushima North which both involve data sharing agreements with FQM

Here's a short video of the Mukai anomaly and relation to the neighbouring FQM drill area: https://twitter.com/tertiaryplc/status/1701903712094929119?s=61&t=MlDBR9P6CaiWO58Yuo07vg

Here's the recently announced Mushima North soil sampling and the location of the license related to the Kalengwa Mine, one of the highest grade copper mines ever in Zambia. The point is made that Kalengwa was discovered by drill testing a coincident gravity and copper in soil anomaly, the same situation that we see at Mushima North:

https://twitter.com/navseis/status/1711328851974881786?s=61&t=MlDBR9P6CaiWO58Yuo07vg

It’s 40-42 %

There’s a lot of information in the last RNS after the ‘market abuse’ section, which most people probably miss. It’s worth a look.

https://www.tertiaryminerals.com/downloads/20231005-tym-rns-first-soil-sampling-results-mushima-north.pdf

Maybe you could give us all a run down of the assets and why you think they are worth investing in? That might be more useful than the usual “its going parabolic”

More buying and less ramping might have the desired effect!

Https://www.miningweekly.com/article/sibanye-ceo-warns-of-platinum-mining-job-losses-as-price-plummets-2023-10-04

"While prices for platinum metals, which are used in catalysts that curb toxic vehicle emissions, may recover, that's unlikely to save mines that were only profitable during record high prices, Froneman said. I think it's highly likely there will be some significant restructuring in platinum, across the entire industry."

Https://www.investmentreports.co/article/nick-von-schirnding-ceo-arc-780/

"we identified another interesting asset in Namibia, which we think about pursuing in the near future."

Now do you see why I think it’s better to just report his posts instead of engaging in pointless arguments? Pretty much every post today concerns Bushytailed. Frankly I don’t give a damn about him or his investments.

Actually they just tweeted about the ‘recent sampling programme’ so presumably its already done…

https://x.com/tertiaryplc/status/1709189830989537791?s=61