RE: Midweek takeaway24 Aug 2023 15:08
This is from the Dec 2021 research note, as far as I can see everything is still progressing as previously stated (apart from the Roan upgrade). I believe this answers mammon’s question.
Jubilee has started production, successfully, by reprocessing existing copper (cobalt) tailings through Sable, which were accumulated by the previous operators. Material feed is to be supplemented with third-party materials and material from its own smaller existing tailings together with 10kt/year oxide concentrate feed from its Roan operation in Ndola. Roan will also produce a copper sulphide concentrate and we expect that to be treated at the Mufulira Smelter.
Jubilee is also trialling the leaching of finely ground copper sulphide concentrates at Sable in a pilot plant.
Production (building up from Q3 2021)
Roan plant (Ndola ROM): 0.8Mt/year throughput for six years. Production of 9kt/year copper in oxide and 3.5kt/year copper in sulphide. This is expected to be followed by 10 years of production from tails at Roan (7Mt grading 0.8% copper).
Roan plant (Ndola tails): 0.8Mt/year throughput (WHIe from year 7). Production of 4kt/year copper in oxide and 7kt/year copper in sulphide enough to take production to 2031, in our view. At this point, Jubilee will have to decide how best to utilise the Sable asset: third-party material, switch material from Lechwe or if the pilot sulphide concentrate leach works then copper production from its own sulphide concentres. Jubilee will make choices to best suit the utilisation and, ultimately, the revenue and profits it can generate. Flexible is the word we would use to describe the strategy going forward.
Small third-party suppliers to make up the remainder of supply (including small contribution from Sable’s own tailings).
Sable refinery to produce ~12-14kt/year copper cathode plus minor cobalt (if the third-party ore contains a high enough grade of cobalt).
There is also a plant-life extension possible if sufficient, cheaply transported copper-bearing raw materials can be found, as was the case when Glencore owned the plant. Sable does not lie in the CopperBelt, so there will always be a transport cost to bring raw materials in. One way to overcome this is to switch an amount of copper sulphide concentrate from Elephant and Lechwe (and maybe Mufulira) if the sulphide leaching pilot plant test at Sable is positive. This would enable Jubilee to treat in-house (some of) the sulphide concentrates it produces and capture the full value in the copper. At our long-term price of $3.5/lb ($7,700/t), the Treatment Charge (TC), Refining Charge (RC) and freight are about 10% of the price.
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