Member Info for Seingred

Awax ,I think the opposite is probably true . When gold was $11-1250 and b2 aisc were close to this then it made big sense .Now however gold is closing in on $2000 and even during the pandemic calibre have started reducing their costs . They have some pretty impressive grades too so I believe it is less tempting now than two years ago .Not saying it wont happen though all the time they have spare capacity . They buy ore from artisans and early on mc mentioned that it was up to b2 what they did with the ore giving me the impression that was the likely deal .obviously a lot of time has passed since .
I guess it depends also how long calibre are away from being able to go to full capacity with their own ore .

Cf , I dont present aaz as a direct comparison . Aaz produces gold,silver and copper under a psa that currently equates to 25 deducted . Their grades are lower . They are carrying out exploration work and upgrades and negotiating a jv with conroy gold . They produce 80 koz equivalent that was at $603 aisc but now due to covid 743 so close to cnr calculated aisc . They also pay a significant dividend .
Calibre defines AISC as the sum of Total Cash Costs (per above), sustaining capital (capital required to maintain current operations at existing production levels), capital lease repayments, corporate general and administrative expenses, exploration expenditures designed to increase resource confidence at producing mines, amortization of asset retirement costs and rehabilitation accretion related to current operations. AISC excludes capital expenditures for significant improvements at existing operations deemed to be expansionary in nature, exploration and evaluation related to resource growth, rehabilitation accretion not related to current operations, financing costs, debt repayments, and taxes. Total AISC is divided by gold ounces sold to arrive at a per ounce figure.
Proactive I believe used the aim miners I mentioned in their piece so I am not alone in using them as a form of reference . Anyhow it is just my opinion in forcasting a possible sp for this year .btw I expect all these goldies to do well barring any negative events .

A f ,I dont miss that point at all . But what is the relevance of numerous posts quoting the share price 10 and 15 years ago as reference to future sp . I have fully taken on board that previous dilutions have held the sp back but we move from here .
El of course an explorer needs funds for exploration thats how it works unless like ggp and omi you get joint venture capital . I am not criticising that ,just the mentality that doesnt factor it in . Of course the m cap divided by the amount of shares will determine the sp . However the only cake shareholders want is the share price . £2.60 has been mentioned here for 2006 .£2.00 also refered to in 2011 . Current sp is 50 p .Not much cake in my book over 15 years . Thankfully I am in around 40 p
It is hard to estimate a m cap for cnr for year end without knowing if a toll deal will be finalised .If a toll deal is finalised prior to mine finance that will be a much different proposition than no toll deal and raising capital at a lower sp . If no toll deal ,imo a mcap of £100-125 . With toll deal £150-200 m and divide it by whatever ammount of share you believe will be in issue at year end .
Of course if gold goes ballistic or we get a strategic investment etc things could get more exciting .
My hope is £1 and anything above is a bonus that Will be gratefully accepted . Very achievable and more than happy to be laughed under the table this time next year .

Af ,cnr were isueing shares at £1.60 eight or nine years ago and in the twenties not long ago . You cannot seriously think that this hasnt devalued the share price . Of course dilution is a part of an explorers life and why early stage is often the most lucrative stage . Unfortunately cnr has been a bit overlong in the explorer stage .15 years and still a couple of years away from 40-50 k oz production .Hopefully we are entering the next lucrative stage of a mining company .

Vancouver, British Columbia: Calibre Mining Corp. (TSX-V: CXB) (the “Company” or “Calibre”) is pleased to announce the closing of the transaction with B2Gold Corp. (“B2Gold”) pursuant to which Calibre has acquired B2Gold’s interest in the El Limon and La Libertad gold mines, the Pavon gold project and additional mineral concessions in Nicaragua for aggregate consideration of US$100 million, which was paid with a combination of cash, common shares, a convertible debenture and a US$10,000,000 cash payment, or at the option of B2Gold, a portion in common
shares of Calibre, which will be payable one year from the date of closing (the “Transaction”).

Yes toll deal is important part of the equation .lets hope it is happening .

C f , when calibre anounced their deal with b2 many here called it a bad deal ,aguila even doubted it would complete because of this . I compared calibre a few years ago when both had a m cap around £14 m .That was before the highly respected newmarket team took the helm .calibre have aquired ten year old plants and are also drowning in targets .we are probably going to anounce a 40/50 oz per year plant for not much less than they paid .
We are further down the road than calibre were prior to the newmarket team taking over but the b2 deal has catapulted them very quickly way beyond where we are or will be for many years .
I stick with using aim peers aaz,shg ,hum and tsg as very rough comparisons .none of which are above £150 m and are pretty much all debt free as far as I know . However if gold rises significantly Anything gold related should rise a lot higher .
Cnr has to become a very possible take over or jv imo . £1.50 would be a very nice y/e for me from 40 p recently .any more gratefully received .
Btw offed most avct after our exchange circa 200 p cheers .

Dilution history
May 2006 122.3 m shares
April 2011. 525,595,086 Shares
Jan 2021. 118 m (x20 ,consn ) 2.4 billion shares not including outstanding warrants .
Not terrible compared to many aim explorers but often ignored when justifying valuations here .

Hny all .cf , concur £1-1.50 by y/e hopefully unless gold goes ballistic (not impossible ) and no hickups .
I think the most sensible way to evaluate is by m cap so £100-150!m imo .The current m cap of quite a number of aim current producers .just depends on the number of shares .
Connect ,I posted the figures for the dilution levels since this was 2.70 in 2006 .increased by close to 25 x .you really have to take this on board when evaluating a share price . I dont discount the chance of a deal too .
The big multibaggers will be in explorers imo this coming year imo .
Good luck all .

Perkins ,personally I think at a quiet time at the end of the year ,there is no harm in talking about other investments before entering the next year . Posters can learn from one another re investing . This has been my most successful year since dotcom and most tips have started from bb discussions . It is a mistake to turn these boards into a fan club imo .
Personally I am interested in heading towards greener pastures so will spend a bit of time researching those shares . Good luck for this year .

Cambells ,it is always possible .we have seen the extractive tax raised a year or so ago in the tax reforms . The economy since 2018 has shrunk and access to finance have shrunk since us sanctions . the us is by far Nicaraguas largest trading partner .
https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/nicaraguah
Beaties pan american silver operates still in Bolivia successfully .
Mc always states rightly how pro international mining the laws are so there is room for a bit more of the cake without it being a major issue . I dont imagine a radical change as ortega has been a Faithful slave to the imf since 2006 unlike Bolivia .

Tester ,would agree the west ' record on removing unhelpful dictators is rubbish while completely embracing helpful ones like the saudis is rubbish . On the other hand every repressive regime of all types cries coup when faced with public rebellion .
. judge solis ,ortegas best man disagrees with the idea of coup .coup is a very convenient overly used phrase .here is an interview with him .
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/12/world/americas/nicaragua-ortega-legal.html
Ortegas own brother Humberto a fellow sandinista general and was head of the military in the 90s also spoke out .
https://apnews.com/article/1a44f98a25d44ccd94983be787c581de
In regards to Nicaraguas financial situation
https://www.coface.com/Economic-Studies-and-Country-Risks/Nicaragua
I think £1-1.50 is achievable by year end without major problems .

https://apnews.com/article/1a44f98a25d44ccd94983be787c581de
100,000 are looking from outside their own country since 2018 . The population is around 6 m
I dont think that cnr will be unduly affected by elections .perhaps some delays maybe .

Pphilke , perhaps you could illustrate your claim that there is a glut of £30 -40m goldies that havnt turned a drill with a list of said goldies .

728 . This is a continuation of ongoing situation . Book 5 seems to think that one of ortegas sons is invested here which is highly likely .
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/nicaragua-politics-ortega/

https://www.ft.com/content/5e115361-6c0e-4032-8b76-9c369e309ff8
elections are a foregone conclussion I think tbh . It is something to be aware of this year but together with the fact that around 100,000 opponents are estimated to have fled the country since april 2018 it is hard to see anything other than an ortega win .I expect there will be more tightening up of descent as the year progresses . The opposition is also made up of various groups that are not necesarily compatible .

Nero , bth has the properties of currency and gold rolled into one .you can spend bth in a variety of ways
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54630283
You cant spend your gold on paypal .
Presently there are about 250 bitcoin atms
https://coinatmradar.com/country/225/bitcoin-atm-united-kingdom/

https://www.luno.com/blog/en/post/spend-bitcoin-uk

Hi elise ,no dont get me wrong I dont know ,it was just my opinion . I have bought in small amounts over time ,first buying on the way down in the big crash a couple of years ago ,mainly eth and this year bth . I am no kind of expert but do know a few people who are serious crypto people .
I wont buy at this level but also wouldnt be too surprised to see 50 k fairly soon .

Come come Nero , you refer to bitcoin Holders as ignorant bagholders . Heres the thing ,most people are lured into shares also for multibags for doing f all . I know many people who look down on people that look to make money out of digging poisonous holes in the ground .
Bitcoin is about ten years old and has gone from 1 dollar to 28,000 in ten years .incredible ,yes . we may well be in a temporary bubble presently and it will drop back but the rise has been over ten years .a ten year bubble ? The drops will likely be as dramatic as the rises .
Cash is only paper that will cease to exist soon and most traded gold doesnt exist .
Crypto has given people with foresight to radically change their lives . Cannot say I am in that position ,I couldnt see it when advised to buy 6 or 7 years ago unfortunately .
My take is the same as generally for most shares remove stake on the back of a big rise and see what gives . There will inevitably be a significant pullback in time .

Nero, Talk again on this one when it inevitably reaches 0 lol. you love posting a good chart ,perhaps you could post bitcoin performance over ten years compared to gold .
Isa ,of course knowing when to cash in your chips applies to any asset as seen in 15 year cnr sp chart .

Hi mclecky , condor listed on aim in 2006 with 122m shares and a m cap of £ 12.2 m .
Our m cap is nearly 5 times that today. But if you multiplied todays 118 m shares x 20 (consolidation) and outstanding warrants you get 2.5 billion shares . A multiple of 20 x .
39 p is a good average . I think you have to discount the dead years in between and look at profit from now . We are still a long ways from successful production unless a toll deal happens so I am cautious on sp predctions but 18 p -80 p would be a pretty good turnaround for starters .
Alex , I think anybody reading here with an interest in investing would read that post as 2.60 was during this period but granted if you want to go back 15 years then it is factual but ambiguous but in no way of any use for predicting present value . well done for getting your average down so much
How much further dilution to go to production will enter the equation too . Lets get to 1 pound first but if you have held for 14 years another 2 or 3 isnt a long time to see the real returns if cnr remains independent . Good luck all for the next year .
I hope everybody myself included gets as much as possible but would rather be pleasantly surprised than unpleasantly disapointed as most have been over the last 7-8 years .

Elise ,in march tester posted that he was laughing at bitcoin crashing .I posted then it was a buying op . I was fairly late to crypto only been in for about 3 years and didnt heed words from a couple of techy friends . One such person that I worked with bought crypto at around £1 and is now sitting on over £100 m in bitcoin . I intend to swap more over but waiting for a big pullback . Its a very simple investment .no worries with gvnts ,coups ,bankruptcies etc . Biggest worry is getting hacked . As always ,good to be spread across a number of investments .

Mcklecky , I have been invested for ten years from sub 1 p levels . I do not believe cnr has ever been at £2.60 in all that time .you would have to go back a fair few years further to find that sp level .
https://tools.morningstar.co.uk/uk/stockreport/default.aspx?
tab=7&SecurityToken=0P00007YQZ%5D3%5D0%5DE0WWE%24%24ALL&Id=0P00007YQZ&ClientFund=0&CurrencyId=BAS
Long term sp chart useful for ref .
Here is an interesting bit of cnr history that is worth a re read .
https://condorgold.com/sites/default/files/news/Condor%20RNS%20B2Gold%20Concession%20Swap%20FINAL.pdf
Looking at cnr chart you can see a v large spike towards the end of 2010 briefly to about 11 p old money .subsequent spikes on news over the next year or two before the big decline .
We are entering a similar time now where imo quality early stage explorers will make large gains ,maybe temporarily . I have been buying into such companies over the last year .
It is an investing mistake to simply think that because a share was x amount ten years ago this somehow means it is worth more now . I kept t a rule to never pay more than 6 p in those days as the moves towards 10 p (200p) now were never sustained .
Cnr is now at a different stage heading towards mine build and although I expect to see a move north ,unless the gold price rises significantly further I will be pleasantly surprised if we see £2 plus in the next year or so . Having said that there is no telling where the gold price may head .
Fair play though 8 thumbs for a factually incorrect post is pretty good going lol .