Member Info for Seingred

Rob, firstly ,I didnt predict 2 p, I did say that it seemed odd to me that so many on here appear to buy when we spike yet when sensible peeps buy sub 10 p nothing doing. I take issue with your statement that I am negative on omi, I am fully loaded but do not need or want to rely on what are very optimistic short term guesstimates or blue sky forcasting. Call it realistic. When we are multiples of 50 p I will be more than happy to banish caution. Longterm I am very hopeful. I am well in profit now and intend to stay that way. As far as gold price is concerned , that is anybodys guess. But as I say it took 25 years for the gold price to reach its 1980 peak again . It has since doubled since 2005. Who knows. My nose tells me we should see a rise at some point , maybe next year. I think it is highly likely that stock markets crash. The good news is that you dont even need huge gold price increases in gold price to see a serious rise in gold producers.$2500 is pretty transformational for goldies.I am placed , probably too heavily in the mining sector at present but I expect particularly producers to move in tandem with the gold price. I get your argument for gold price rise and have seen these forwarded by experts but also other forcasts that are negative. I tend to work in the present, and any significant gold / silver,uranium,copper and lithium price appreciation is bonus. Obviously I hope for as much as possible and you can never say never on possible commodity prices or crypto prices for that matter.
I also hold and trade crypto and it could be that the next rise there comes before significant gold increased. Yes, lets see how it goes. This is a pretty long journey that will have unexpected surprises along the way no doubt but I prefer to be pleasantly surprised than unpleasantly surprised. Good luck and feel free to remind me when we are multiples of 50 p. I wont mind as I will probably be in acapulco if that should happen lol. Good luck

Punter, There could well be very good grades to be found with a whole pile of drilling who knows. Omi ceo has bandied a 30 m oz area but unless it is proved it is fairly immaterial. Hasnt sent us into orbit has it , because it is not particularly relevant. Obviously the idea that there are further areas for explo is a plus for any potential purchaser but wont affect price.

Barnard, I was saying how surprised that peeps didnt seem to be buying sub 25 p. I am supposedly a de ramper but added a few more and said 23-30 p nailed on short term. Buying at sub 25 p would give anyone a decent chance of doubling their money in the short to medium term.
Good luck

Cheers tester.
The question section was a bit light at the end. Mc states$106 m to fund 80 k oz. underground funded by revenue in yr 3 . Doesnt refer to when sag mill is uprated to make 120 k oz unless I missed it Not sure if that is when it commences work or production?
Most of mine is in Nicaragua, I imagine the outstanding payment is needed for the remaining parts. I note it is still outstanding.
Anyhow, we are on the final leg of the journey and hopefully we have seen bottom and looking to consolidate above 30 p until funding. 23-30 p was always going to be an easy 30%, lets see where we are at funding. Imperative that we dont have a further raise.
If it was Australia 12 months , but its not is it so like mc I stick with 18 months. If it was in usa it would be much higher. Yep no doubt but irrelevant. And construction finance not before year end . Yep thats what I thought 888! 18 months swallows up 2023 and half of 2024 , ramp up period and there we have it 2005 for commercial production, underground in year 3 ,2008 . That simms is why I say you are unlikely to see any dividends within 5 years. It is also stated that further drilling will be funded. Although it appears you can say we think there may be 12 m oz and punter then converts it all to 3g/t in reality means little. The claim to 5 m oz is more relevant but still will not going to make a lot of difference until proven.
Mc gave his example justifying a m cap of $116m but doesnt state the ammount of shares that will exist at this stage. If the sp was 5 times higher even with the present number of shares that would give a m cap of around £200 m , more than calibre if you strip out their cash . Mm. And thats with no further dilution.
We may see an aproach soon but I cannot see it giving the kind of return some hope for.
Anyhow, lets get financing done and see where we get.I am hopeful for 50-60 p in the next year which is ok as far as I am concerned. .

Firstly rob, I am not a bear at all , I am fully invested for future profits just dont share the overly optimistic scenario as a fact yet and dont need to.
https://www.continentalgold.com/zijin-mining-to-acquire-continental-gold-in-friendly-all-cash-offer-for-c1-4-billion/
Buritica wasnt sold in 2015, the deal was anounced towards the end of 2019, completing in 2020 which I think you will find was while gold price rose. Same is true for ggp rise. As for solg that was at the height of the last bull run. Of course we could be looking at another bullrun during our journey which could seriously change all scenarios. A hot market can produce overly toppy spikes.
Our asset of course could exceed buriticca, but we will only have 25% of it. Buritica was in pre production whereas omi asset is probably 8 years behind that stage. Buritica also had further resource potential. So yes the asset could well be $1 b in time, but still only 25% of that and a long distance off. Anybody can pluck a figure like 30 m ozs out of the air. Any idea how long it would take to prove up. Well it wont be , expect a similar scenario to continental , x million resource fs and either sale or production with further drilling from revenue. If they want to go to production I imagine a resource for 250 oz pa would be enough to go into production. Cant see why they would go beyond that because that is more time and would want to get revenue flowing to fund further drilling. Our geologist who has less shares than many of us will never have to prove that 30 m claim. My guess is those warrants will expire .
So, obviously if gold turns around and sails north over the next few years things change for the better , which is why I have been adding producers in the dips as they will move directly with the gold price. However I would disagree with your assumption that this always happens. The gold price hit a high of around $ 750 from memory at the begining of the eighties and we experienced high inflation in the eighties, and didnt re touch that level until around 2005 so nothing is guaranteed, but I am hopeful on that front but will accept that scenario when /if it happens.
I didnt see 2 p but then bhargav only weeks ago was sugesting 5 o 6 p was possible. Wind back a week and a half and this bb was awash with imminent 20,30 and some muppet saying £1 within the week posts. Here we are at around 13 p which I think if we maintain it would set us up nicely for another leg up with good news. If $40 m has been spent so far and there is no defined resource that doesnt sound like very good value to me. Cnr has a fully permitted 2.4 m oz resource that over 10 years has cost not too much more than that. So I would imagine $60 m could disapear quite fast. Cnr have spent around $10 m on their bfs alone.
50 p would at present equate to a m cap of around £80 m, x4 thats £320 m . More than gcm by quite some way . gcm is pretty low valued presently granted as are most producers but I just cant see

https://miningdigital.com/supply-chain-and-operations/aris-gold-buys-20-stake-in-soto-norte-gold-project
Trader, here is one of aris assets, I have also posted a link to gcm for anyone to research as I believe they are more rational comparisons than ggp. Gcm m cap around $300 and aris less . I could add calibre m cap of less than £300 m with $90 m in cash, 20 drills ansd a bigger annual budget than our majors have for next phase.
If we take buriticca, sold in a better gold market than at present. 25% of $1 b is around £220 and falling . For an 11 m oz resource in various categories after 10 years or so of work. So even using that I fail to see 100-150 m cap any time soon. The fact that we saw 40 p very briefly on what obviously was an unsustainable spike is no way to value a company . Could we see another spike , absolutely its possible, do I see a sustained sp over 50 p not for quite some time but we all have differing views and needs. My average thankfully is very low so I dont need to dream of best case figures to get excited about multibagging. Every 4 p is another bag so the thought of reaching 20 p is pretty exciting but for sure if we have spikes over 20, or 30 or 40 p I will be cashing in quite a few and wait for the pullback. If the pullback doesnt happen(highly unlikely). Then I have a very good profit and will still hold a significant ammount of free shares.
I still think wsbn has more relevance with ggp and have been re buying there under 10 p this week. Similar ammount of shares and m cap, except they havnt given away any of their assets yet.
Always best to have varied views . If I am too cautious it will not hurt me or anyone else, however , anybody who bought here in thirties on the back of some posts just like if you bought ggp over 30 p or solg at 45 p ten years ago , it could end up painful. I like to see peeps make money but more importantly not lose money. Obviously , dont buy on the strength of bb posters and I hope the top figures materialise. obviously the depressed gold market isnt the best and could make considerable difference especially to producers when it rises . Good luck here and elsewhere.

Punter, I am well aware of the the purpose of the bfs , I did afterall state the need for it years ago when the deludes stated there was no need for it . Also well aware that its 6 month delay wasnt as some forwarded here because rio or other majors wanted extra information. I am well aware that adding high grade feeder pits is centre to cnr strategy but that doesnt magically make 150 k oz!
Agreed there is a window of 18 months to change the plan that mc has forwarded of using the mill in its present configuration. I stated long time ago that it makes sense to upgrade before production. Stating that adding feeder pits would result in 150 k oz was incorrect punter , do you accept that? My whole point was explaining why I disagreed with simms timeline and level of likely dividend payment.
Punter , a couple of question. How many shares do you think there will be at the point of funding? What do you think the timeline is for the various production steps. Ie, funding and construction start, construction, ramp up , step up from 100 k oz to 125 k oz then step up to underground mining leading to 150 oz production that mellon thought was 2023? That will be funded from revenue . I am sticking with my forcast of commercial production for 2025
Obviously the sale scenario is still as it has been for 12 years the preffered option but I would suggest that anytime soon is not just unlikely but also undesireable with gold producers sitting in the doldrums and gold on the backfoot. Not many on here have any history of extrapolating timelines and sp valuations from available information thus far and I see no change .lets see what hindsight brings but then even hindsight brings few admissions of over optimism, just more delusion. I dont care , I am now above my average and looking towards profit without having to rely on over optimistic forcasts. Good luck

https://www.gcm-mining.com/news-and-investors/press-releases/press-releases-details/2022/GCM-Mining-Announces-August-2022-Production/default.aspx

Punter, I am pretty sure there are breakdowns for the 150 k oz scenario in perhaps the updated pfs . Underground is more expensive. The early production with feeder pits will be the lowest aisc. As production goes on the grades drop and costs increase, much like what happened at b2 mines before new resourcs were found. The numbers rising will be a number of factors, one being that it is worked out over the entire mine life , and obviously costs going up. The feeder pits wont bring us up to 150 k oz , to 100 k oz . The underground takes us up to 150 with the capex around 150 if my memory serves. Our mill currently gives us 100 koz production and needs upgrading to get to 125 k oz. Dont you think if larger production was so close they would be upgrading the present motor and allied parts from the start?.

B, To be clear, I expect higher prices from here and will only trade a portion on inevitable spikes to increase holding. My strategy is partly dictated by available funds also.
Good luck everybuddys, we are in a good period now for sure.

Bhargav, I think majors are here for their own ends . I dont think they pay heed to any jokers including ones that think omi sp will follow ggp. They are only interested in oz, grade and keeping as cheap as possible ,and will factor in risks just like the market. If for any reason they change plan they walk away . Losing $30 m is chicken feed to the worlds biggest miner , they just write it off . For them it is just gold, hopefully on their bottom line not their one lifeline to the stars. What does mr bhargav do or anyone payin 40 p. Not that I am suggesting that is likely but also not impossible. Majors do walk from projects .
heres the thing B, the sp currently is 14 p, when it is multiples of 50 p as you suggest then you can label people jokers until then jokers would appear to be peeps who bought here above 30 p on hype. If your predictions come true I will be extatic and very handsomely rewarded so its all win win for me but with very little risk. Tbf I have to say that I bought in here when you were one of the only positive posters . I did a trade at the start of the big rise to 40 p at around 7.5 and you said I might miss the boat. More by luck than judgement it did fall back and I rebought below 6 p but there was a small opportunity and luckily I was back in. I had limit sells sitting from about 9 p and kept lifting them day by day as it strengthened finally selling some in the thirties . It is a hard route and very easy to get wrong. So we may spar on some matters here but I still am greatful for those days.

Simms, I dont disagree with your point that they will want to pay dividends , as usual I disagree with timeframe and the level a dividend would likely be . Punter as I said before, underground will be funded by revenue and jochem say 3 years to repay debt. There is also much more drilling to be done. Together with construction thats 5 years gone before any chance of a dividend imv. The final number of shares still has to be reached but if it were 250 m , £1 a share , presently that would make cnr more expensive than calibre and that isnt taking into account their $90 m cash pile! How many years do peeps think we are from 150 -180 m oz production? Production costs , even today would not be$670 sorry punter.
We want a good consolidation in sp now heading into 40 s and no nasty surprise before mine build. Oh and of course the long awaited gold price of $2000- 10,000
Simms, mc hasnt really been filling his boots has he though over the last couple of yearsand mellon added less last time round.the much touted first majestic accepting shares at 50 p hasnt resulted in them adding at either of the last placings. You are correct that cnr are not aiming to be a global gold mining company and that it certainly should be expected for the company to be valued a lot higher than recently. I think you forget that if they want more payoff , they are ceo and largest holding director and will do what anyone else would do , ie significantly raise their remuneration. Of course dividends should come at the relevant time if cnr is still independant . For now I look no further than getting to construction with no more dilution to upset the share price because obviously if we could clear 40 and upwards to mine finance it makes a significant difference all ways round. I hope many took the opportunity to add sub 25 p . 30% in a couple of weeks is not to be sneezed at.
Onwards and upwards, would be pleased if we maintain 30 s this week which looks like it could be turbulent generally. Gla

Watcher, there are a few things at play here, gold under pressure, usual sell the news aim scenari and lets not forget the recent placing. I sold some on the recent spike over 16 p and been buying back now and adding. I think there is every chance of more spikes to 18 p and I will sell some again. Sub 10 p seems good. Dont know if the previous 7 p will be reached. Little and often for me to spread the load . Good risk/reward at these levels I think.Good luck

Jwoz, we obviously have a different way of working things out. If you invest a specific ammount of cash in a share , topslice at say 16.5p and re invest that sum at 12.5-13 p that in no way in my mind means a rising average. I already bought around 4 p. Total invested divided by total shares, seems pretty straightforward to me but each to their own.
Cheers for the medal bhargav and valueboy. Didnt know there were acceptable hours here,, maybe I work unsociable hours, or dont live in uk. I think one or two deserve a medal of some sort for encouraging peeps to buy at 30 p-40 p then winging at 7 p .
Can anyone still tell me how gcm , largest goldie in colombia that pays a 5% dividend produces 200 k oz and a huge project developing in guyana is worth $300 m and then explain how 65% of nothing tangible yet is somehow worth some of the incredible figures bandied about.
Bhargav, I have shares in omi not the largest goldminer. Not trying to give advice to them , just questioning some of the overblown posting on a bb that has very little ballance or research imv and ecouraged peeps to buy all the way up to 40 p!

C f. Good post. It would be well worth watching jochem interview with gcm , colombias largest goldie with a huge developing project in guyana which is going to merge with aris also worth researching. Jochem is a holder lol. They have a section where they compare their dividend (5%) against their peers. Very competive. Their m cap is around $300m I believe with sooopar grades . I have added some, heading towards 600 k oz in a couple of years with merge and multi jurisdiction inc Canada and dividend paid monthly.
In cnr interview, jochem says ,oooh yaa, debt paid back in 3 years. I am sticking with my 18 months construction , 6 months ramp up plus whatever period prior to construction. So 2-2.5 years before commercial production. It is also stated that underground will be funded from revenue so I do not see a likelyhood of dividends within five years simms .
As for dividend level. I think it highly unlikely that cnr would as an arly stage producer have a dividend above say b2 which is 4% I believe. To work out a £1 dividend payment over 5 years you first need to have a number of shares which simms you havnt given .lets say a conservative 225m . So to give £1 over 5 years , if we divide £1 by 5 we have 20p pa . If we multiply this by 25 that would give a m cap of over £600 m. Calibre presently is valued under £300 m , gcm similar . This is my rationale for saying it is a pipe dream. I think a view of simms previous 3-5 years would show extremely over optimistic posts. Trying not to be personal but think that is a fair comment. I will stick to my own nose which has been rather better for my investment than most. Good news is, I am now back in profit and hoping 30 s can be held ready for a consolidation towards the 40s.
Obviously the gold price has a major say in the future along with inflation/costs. We could see oil price collapse by production, who knows.
Gold price not looking helpful currently and chances of going sub $1600. Also I still see a possibility of a final small raise in next couple of months that could hold sp back. Hopefully not. I was positive sub 25 p and still positive at 30 p .This week likely to be traumatic generally so interested to see how cnr holds up.
Cf , deffo worth researching gcm and arris .
Gla

Simms, can you explain your assumption of dividends exeeding £1 over the next 5-7 years. This is pure fantasy .

Chick. My comment was in response to risehalls comment. Well, I beg to differ that organised criminal gangs operate illegally on concessions all over the world. I dont believe ggp the usual comparison have to use such undercover methods. These are the kind of things that make some jurisdictions cheaper than others. Are you also familiar with any of the arbitration cases taken out against the colombian state?
Make no mistake, I am most certainly in . Omi is my largest holding, mainly because I bought low,sub 4 p and mainly only re buy now after selling higher so my average is lower. I trade a portion of my shares but never sell out completely. Add or sell according to the market. I am not negative on omi , just have a more realistic viewpoint than many here. It is much safer to keep your average low, so you wont see me paying 15, 20 or 30 p. Not unless I have sold at 20-40 p previously. Nobody saw 7 p when they were being told 25 p was bargain time.
Gcm and aris are to merge. Take a look at their combined assets and m cap for a reality check on valuations.

B , lol, didnt realise I would wake you.
Chick, no of course not, but trying to infer it is for some other reason is a bit silly or did ggp also do this? But since you want to mention those miners lets mention aris and gcm and ask why their m cap is sub $300m with masses of high grade gold and production and in gcm case a healthy dividend yet many on here see a m cap in similar levels for 25% and no resource as yet. Buritica sold for $1 b usd so equivalent $250 m at 25% , around £217 m. Beware the ramps, buy the dips , sell the spikes and do proper research. good luck all.

Risehall, the reason they have changed the names is to try and avoid illegal mining which is common and dangerous in colombia as zijin have found out.which means there is a danger .

Barnard, there is only 3 months left of this year so I am not saying 3 years. I think if you have recently bought back in your timing is good which is the all important thing and agree with nero unusually that the funding is likely to be a bigger driver to sp. That should be the defining moment that all systems are go. My timescale is pretty much what has been stated
,18 months constuction, 6 months ramp up and however long till start of construction. Bingo 2025.
Good luck and yes time will tell .