Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
My view is worth no more than that of the dog in the park - though I do take him actually quite seriously, so take this from whence it comes.
The key to successful investing is to avoid getting spooked by nappy-wetters. Because, from time to time, they do start to drive the narrative by their behaviour pattern, especially since, in the short-term, it actually becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy - because panic/fear is contagious.
If you have done your research - and there is some truly astounding quality research made available here by some excellent posters - you just need to hold your nerve.
It is not always easy. Some frustrations notwithstanding (comms strategy being one), PRD seems to have fantsatic upside potential relative to the downside.
I am a long term holder and have seen no reason whatever to change my mind on that.
Beware nappy-wetters....they seldom, if ever, get rich.
I was impressed by the Fox-Davies repot.
I happen to think that the valuation could be well north of their estimation and that some of the timings could be improved. But it is significant improvement to have a detailed research report out there nd I would rather they be conservative in analysis than
There are some outstanding contributors on here (and, wow, BillyRayVal, take a bow), some of whose valuation estimates are well north of F-D's (at the moment). I happen to think those higher estimations may well be in reach, otherwise I would not have committed as much here for as long as I have (3 years) but I have been around the City and Wall Street for long enough to know that sober, sane, conservative analysis serves companies much better than either garbage or hysterical praise.
So, I think it was a great step forward by PG to get Fox-Davies in.
And I think Fox-Davies should be commended for an excellent report. I may think the numbers were on the shy side but at least now there is a credible report out there that should help contribute to at least price stabilisation and, hopefully, rather more.
FWIW, I tend to incline rather towards the view of GRH and the Michael Caine assessment.....
The comms confusion is seemingly never-ending and needs to get sorted.
The company needs to get in a proper IR advisor and stop these endless own goals.
I am a long-standing investor in PRD but the IR/PR /comms strategy has been a total fiasco for the 3 years I have been invested.
Why not just get in a proper IR advisor and then communicate properly??
The costs of not doing so and having an ongoing comms shambles have had a real cost in terms of SP and thus dilution.
It is hardly a secret here that I regard GRH's opinions very highly.
And, in retrospect, I shave have heeded his views on PANR. But I didn't and have taken a fairly big bath there (I have a reasonable size position there and am now down about 85%, so this is not a Warren Buffett type case study), so that might seem to have been a mistake.
However, I would observe that one should always take a vie on VALUE (that usually doesn't move if your initial analysis is right), rather than timing (which is very problematic to predict).
And I happen to think PANR still has great VALUE, even though the SP is, quite frankly, rather disappointing at the moment.
In any case, whether it be PRD or PANR, I tend to be of the view of holding through turbulence. Not out of any sense of blind loyalty but because I have found it to be a better investment strategy than trading in and out.
Just my experience.
And, in the case of PRD, I think it will come home with bells and whistles. Have always thought that.
Gudin,
I am not clever enough to understand exactly what the real geological value is here (though some very clever people here suggest it be potentially high).
But I would most certainly agree that the confused comms was not helpful to the cause at all - as was made manifest in the SP weakening.
I think PG's observation that everything would change in the blink of an eye upon the announcement of a major deal - which I happen to believe likely (otherwise I would not have been her for some 3 years).
But it has always confused me as to how the comms are always so bad.
Why not get in a proper IR/PR advisor? - there are many excellent ones in the City.
I will get attacked, I know, for saying that I look at GRH's comments very closely. And regard them very highly.
For those that wish to attack me for complimenting him, I would suggest you concatenate fornication and travel.
I have been in the investment game for quite a while and the calibre of his commentary is little short of extraordinary. And we have been very lucky to have shared in those freely shared insights.
And he is not the only one - KeithOz, Wacky, Methodology, Seabright, Jimmy, BRV, Micktrick - are all exceptional commentators as well. To whom I am also very grateful.
This is the best BB in terms of quality I have ever encountered (PANR generally has idiots, DLAR is like a visit to a mortuary).
That will be a distinct advantage to PRD - where I think PG, Lonny and Moyra are doing a great job.
If you disagree with me, then why not sell your shares and sod off? Or make friends with Little Nige. Or his risible friend, Porters.
Oder,
Very good observation.
What this team =- PG, then Lonny and now Moyra - have achieved on a very small outlay is an outstanding achievement.
What what Moyra Scott has achieved in her career is little short of amazing and the fact that the team, as well as the asset base, is now a trifecta, both reduces risk and enhances potential upside.
I think she has added very considerable value to the mix and am very encouraged that she has a rally decent slug of options.
Those that bake the cake should eat heartily from it.
And I think the cake to be a very good one.
Comms has never been PRD's great strength, to put it mildly.
Some of that in the past might have been strategically deliberate, some might just have been terrible comms strategy and terrible IR/PR (which I have long believed to be the case).
I may be lacking the necessary intellect to understand but I am very confused about the message that was coming through yesterday.
The very fact that opinions here from sensible posters are so mixed suggests a distinct lack of clarity in the messaging. So, at least I would not appear to be the only one that is confused.
And the markets usually do not like lack of clarity and opaqueness.
The market's view (the short term SP) may be irrelevant, given the potential enormity of the asset base assembled here (and brilliantly so by PG and Lonny).
But, really, could PG not have gotten in a proper IR advisor and stress-tested the messaging and the possible implications before this podcast?
I remain very positive about PRD and its leadership team but very negative its comms strategy. The comms strategy has been a long-term weakness and needs to get fixed if VALUE is to be optimised.
Since there has been some suggestion about Alan Turing and, thus by implication, breaking the Enigma code and Bletchley Park and WWII and all that, it seems that we also have our own Lord Haw Haw in the form of Little Nige.
It did not end well for William Joyce (Lord Haw Haw) and I suspect Little Nige's predictions may turn out to be in the same sort of league.
Ireland needs to get a grip on the reality that security of energy supply is critical.
Being dependent on just 2 gs pipelines from the UK makes them effectively dependent on the UK - who herself is facing what would appear to be significant Russian threats:
https://www.eutimes.net/2023/04/russia-caught-spying-on-uk-for-sabotage-purposes-with-fishing-ships/
No-one wants to profit from trouble and war but Ireland needs to wake up - and that would be a significant benefit to PRD.
This thing is now effectively owned by the banks.
The shares are pretty much valueless.
No buyer is going to come in with this level of bank debt - added to which is the pension fund mess.
This company could have been architected out of the mess - it has an extraordinary brand and history.
But it has shown no signs of changing strategy and no sane buyer will want to come in to basically rescue the banks - because that is all that this mess is now, in cold reality.
It has been a totally squandered opportunity.
I am of very similar mind to BRV and usually have a small number of stocks in which I have decent scale positions. PRD is currently the biggest position I have and I think it by far the biggest delta/gamma opportunity I have seen in 30 years.
I am not a geologist and am thus enormously grateful for those very knowledgeable posters here who do inform that discourse.
I tend to take a more macro view and I think we should be reminded that PRD sits on 3 premium quality assets (Morocco, Trinidad, Ireland) that are all situated in locations that are politically stable and located in close proximity to high demand markets.
That factor becomes hugely valuable as we approach what could be WW3, here even the Suez could be closed (both Egypt and Saudi Arabia showing disturbing signs of getting closer to China and even Iran).
I think the geo-strategic value of the assets assembled in PRD is significantly under-valued in the current SP.
Rob,
There are some seriously clever people onboard here (GRH, KeithOz, Wacky, Methodology, Seabright, BRV, Micktrick, many more).
That is a very good lead indicator of a VALUE aritbrige (iee current SP is way south of real VALUE).
I be but a passing arbitrageur (not a trader - I have been here for 3 years and think it possibly the greatest investment I have made in a career of 30+ years).
But I have a fair stake here, several million shares across some different entities.
So I am committed.
I am very committed to this management team - PG and Lonny and the lady driller.
What they have achived on a shoestring is nothing short of awesome.
And the SP is totally irrelevant if they pull off the Special Divident Route.
That has been much underestimated here.
It has massive FME (Force Multiplier effect) - the sale of various assets, piecemeal if that is the best route to go.
So the sales proceeds get distributed via Special Dividend - and the shareholders still hold the shares, which equity value include the rest of the Moroccan license area plus Ireland plus Trinidad!!!!
Well done, PG.
Unhooked,
Institutional investors are always extremely wary of voting to remove management teams, no matter how terrible they may be. It is maddening but has always been like that. Hedge funds are generally much more prepared to support such actions and it is often difficult to co-ordinate retail investors.
The problem here is that, whilst Loosemore seems to be pretty useless (and certainly the share price reflects that perception) , the "solution" as put forward by Crystal Amber is itself pretty uninspiring. The suggested replacement chairman looks a pretty poor choice and there does not seem to be any alternative strategy for the firm being put forward by Crystal Amber.
The reality is that the company needs a proper CEO (the current one has been a transparent disaster) because the CEO has much more power to really change things than the chairman. It is possible that CA's attempt to get rid of Loosemore is a precursor to getting rid of the CEO and getting in someone decent into that role.
But what decent CEO would take on that role here? It would just be career suicide.
This company either needs a very different strategy or to be sold to a much more financially stable player (though there would likely be competition authority issues there). The current strategy and leadership team are getting them nowhere - in fact, if it were only nowhere, it wouldn't be so bad - they are actually getting deeper into the hole.
We may all have come from different places and backgrounds but we are all on the same ship PRD and that ship seems well headed for berthing at destination port VALUE.
Which will have made everyone's investment, of whatever quantum, worthwhile. Some will be multi-millionaires as a result - absolutely great. Some will have put in less but still done extremely well - absolutely great.
Abundance mentality is a very powerful force. Especially when allied to some commentators on here who really know what they are talking about technically.
This ship will come home. I believe that very deeply.
Johns,
I - again - sense your frustration.
It is extremely unlikely that any judge - "fair" or otherwise (and many of them are still very competent) - would find that minority oppression could have happened. Minorities run the risk of being precisely that - minorities - and the share price they bought in at should reflect that.
It is not for a judge to opine on the merits of what share price e one bought in at.
Minority oppression needs to be almost obscenely egregious before a judge will intervene. In the HUR situation, the deal may be arcane and weird but it comes nowhere near minority oppression.
Even CA here are, effectively, a minority at just under 30%. They can affect sod-all, as have been demonstrated time and time again by their failure to get rid of Wolfe and Maris.
The chances of blocking this deal are very low.
The more likely chance of legal success would be to sue Wolfe and Maris in their persoanl capacities.
And to try to get CA to join as co-suitor. CA have lost way, way, more money in absolute terms in this disaster than most of the individual shareholders.