Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I agree with JonMo and HampshireLass - sell some or all of the Morocco asset(s), distribute most of that via special dividend and then there is pure optionality on Ireland and Trinidad.
That would be a masterstroke.
Little Nige.
I am on this BB because I have a reasonably substantial position here - several million shares - and I find it a very useful way to keep track of what is happening.
One can learn a lot from quite a few very well informed posters on this BB.
Hi Norsk,
I was indeed in CHAR for a bit and made a few posts there on that BB.
I lost confidence in their strategy and the leadership team and exited (I made a bit there but it was relatively a small position and I did not stay in for long).
Confidence in management is key for me as an investment metric.
I did not have confidence in CHAR's leadership. Hence my exit from that.
I have great confidence in the PRD leadership team - PG, Lonny and Moyra. That is why I have been in 3 years and not ever actually worried, even where there were some turbulent waters.
I really think that they know what they are doing and, maybe as importantly, seem to have demonstrated commitment and integrity.
Assets of enormous VALUE.
Which is the major metric I care about.
I also would observe that I watch the BB's on stocks I am invested in (and they are not many - I tend to concentrate my investments in a very small number of stocks - I am not a follower at all of Diversification Theory) and this BB has some of the most extraordinarily brilliant contributors I have ever seen (and I have worked with some of the best investment bankers in the world in London and New York).
I have said it before, I shall say it again. There is something EXTRAORDINARY about this stock.
How else would a company have been able to assemble the extraordinary quality of posters in one place like GRH, KeithOz, Caterham, Methodology, Seabright, BV, MickTrick, Jimmy23, Vegas.
There is something ethereally special about this company.
I am a ruthlessly analytical sort of chap.
But getting that calibre off shaeholder on your side mght suggest there is something more than special here.
The SP movements over the last couple weeks have, obviously, been encouraging.
And I suspect some traders made some good money out of the move. Which is just fine - the eco-system is designed to accommodate all sorts.
I am not a trader, nor, actually, an LTH. I be but an arbitrageur - where I think there is a significant disconnect between VALUE and current share price, I am perfectly happy to stay in until that disconnect (and I have been in PRD for 3 years) narrows.
And I think that, though the SP has gone up a little (which is nice and sweet), the current SP is nowhere near VALUE.
And I do think we will approach correlation to VALUE, either directly (SP) or indirectly (Special Dividend) reasonably soon.
That correlation will arrive in good time. I have no doubt that PG, LB and Moyra are doing everything to maximise VALUE.
The SP movements of late are nice.
They are nothing near what I think the true VALUE to be here.
And I be but a passing arbitrageur, with none of the technical knowledge of GRH, KeithOz, Wacky, Methodology, Seabright, Caterham, Jimmy23, et al.
I have no idea of PG's personal goals (I have never spoken to the man).
But he has assembled an awesome grouping of assets (Morocco, Ireland, Trinidad & Tobago).
And then brought in what seems to me to be an awesome team (Lonny and Moyra).
His age seems to me to be not an issue. He seems to have a clear plan as to how to maximise the monetisation of the assets he has so brilliantly assembled.
What he has created here has always struck me as being indicative of the mindset a total winner - Willie-John McBride, Finlay Calder, Douglas Jardine stuff - and I, for one think he will is going to deliver one of the great triumphs of the ages.
I think it very unlikely he will under-sell.
Which is why I will always stay on his ship.
Louis10 ,
I suspect I may not be alone in suggesting that you take a hike to the South Pole, ideally taking along Meghan Markle and Prince Andrew for companionship over boiled Army ration packs at night. Stunning conversations, I am sure.
Army rat-packs can sometimes cause severe diarrhea. I suspect that will not be an unfamiliar condition for you and may also express itself in your written output.
I am not really too much interested in short-term SP movements (though, of course, it always makes one feel better if they are to the positive).
What has been interesting this morning is that there would appear to have been quite a few buys in the £7,000-£9,000 range, all within a short period of time.
That suggests to me that someone or some company (hedge fund, family office or strategic investor), may be building a position but knows what they are doing and does not want to wade into the market with massive single buys (even if such were available).
Something would definitely appear to be happening here. And my reading of it is that is likely very positive for PRD shareholders who continue to hold to the destination.
This Louis10 guy/girl/they seems to turn up across a number of stocks. Usually spewing FUD.
Think there may be an agenda here.
I am sure the hard hands here will not have worried about this person/company/avatar/whatever.
But it is a bit irritating when these pond-life characters arrive on the scene.
It might be better if he/she/they/it just went and took Little Nige on a date.....
One can never know exactly what is happening in the share market. And I am not a chartist at all.
But it appears that there is some significant buying pressure coming on. Which is good.
Could just be that a major commodities trader is building a position.....
That would be a good thing for shareholders - they are unlikely to launch an unsolicited bid, still less a hostile.
They are after off-take agreements....which means real cash for PRD to distribute (ideally via special dividend).
Things are looking quite good for PRD right now. Which is richly deserved. But don't count chickens...or buy Ferraris. yet.
The ship is only home when it berths and is off-loaded.....
As ever, KeithOz's analysis is excellent, indeed outstanding.
I would only observe that whatever valuation methodology one may be applying, the real magic in PRD is that they have a multiplicity of assets (even within Morocco alone) that could be sold in toto or piecemeal.
And then the proceeds can be paid out in cash (probably via special dividend). And there could be several payouts as the assets are VALUE-crystallised.
Of course, each time there is a payout, the SP is likely to go down to reflect that said payment has been made. But the shareholder will have the payment - and still have the share, with the other payments to come.
The ability to identify and monetise assets is the whole VALUE play here. And the team have done an extraordinary job of assembling great assets. I think they will do a great job of monetising them.
Here is the Youtube link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thyYwq0VXTA
I thought the interview was brilliant.
PG came across so calm and in control of the situation.
Possibly (maybe probably) huge upside, yet he was so composed.
Makes for a very good weekend.
Enjoy the Wimbledon finals.
I do not know what exactly what was driving the SP shenanigans over the last few days.
But I do know at least threepretty sustantial and long term shareholders waded in and bought a fair bit more.
The more of PRD shares that are in titanium hands, the better off we'll all be.
Good, probably great, days ahead.
I think care needs to be taken around this fear of a "hostile takeover".
The chances of a hostile even coming out, let alone succeeding, are slim to zero (because of the criticality of the management team to the mission, the management team's significant shareholding and the power of ONHYM here).
There is a possibility that an unsolicited bid emerges that may be too low down the value curve.
But it would not be a hostile - whosoever that bidder might be would need to co-opt PG and ONHYM for a start, before even making an offer to other shareholders.
PG is key here. If he accepts an offer (he would have cleared such acceptance with ONHYM), it would be pretty much game over.
Even if the offer may not be at the levels some on here believe to be reflective of true VALUE.
PG has built this company and is, I am pretty sure, well aware of its true VALUE and is, I suspect, determined to crystallise that VALUE. It is his magnum opus.
It would appear that there was some strange behaviour in the SP in last few days and it does look like some had an agenda, but my own view (with which the dog in the park concurs) is that PG is unlikely to accept a low-ball offer.
HampshireLass,
Thanks for putting that that up here (I am not a Twitter user myself).
I do think that these forums offer great scope for an exchange of views.
But they also allow a platform/stage for some people to ay some very malevolently intended things.
For what purpose, it is not always easy to discern, though in some cases, it is clear that the objective is to create volatility in the SP.
In other cases, it may simply be that they don't have any friends and the screen and keyboard are the closest proxy.
M-R,
Agree totally. The RNS was really good news and hopefully yesterday's carnage will have shaken the trees and allowed some strong hands to pick up positions from the nappy-wetters who would have panicked in what was a strange day.
Seems to me that the RD team (PG, Lonny and Moyra) continue to achieve on what could really be a stratospheric scale in terms of VALUE creation. Which is what I care about.
Very well done, PG, LB and Moyra!
Jonny12,
It remains my hope that GRH does take you on legally for what you have said and that Novum join him in letting you know - hopefully at significant cost to yourself and your sponsors - there are consequences for spouting poisonous allegations in an open forum.
You have caused reputational damage to GRH and Novum.
Many people here will know that GRH's reputation and demonstrated excellence is extraordinarily high (just read his posting record) but the attack on his ethics is something that is so beyond the pale that it deserves to be dealt with.
Otherwise, all kinds of people - like you - throw slurs around without consequence.
It is one thing to disagree.
It is quite another to throw slurs.
Your conduct has been unbecoming.
Little Nige may be emotionally incontinent but he seems to have some modicum of technical and maybe even location-specific knowledge.
But I do not think Little Nige is one person.
I think it is actually a sort of avatar where someone/company with an agenda is seeking to influence an outcome.
There is not much consistency in Little Nige's posts. Sometimes, like this morning, they are fairly lucid and show some degree of technical knowledge.
Other times, they are just totally emotionally hysterical.
So, I do not think it is one person.
I think it is a programme with an agenda. It could be MM's or it could be an outside buyer (maybe an oil major).
But it is a bit odd.
Little Nige,
Thank you for your concern about the welfare of my investments and my need for education.
I have been in the investing game a long time (30 years) and have been moderately successful. And one can never stop learning - about investing, relationships or life in general.
As regards PRD and PANR, I think your implication that I need to learn something may be wide of the mark.
In each case, I think there is an SP-VALUE discrepancy - and that is what I do (I be but a passing, semi-educated arbitrageur with quite some years in the City and on Wall Street).
And i know the VALUE of patience.
And not getting hung up on weather (the short-term SP), but rather concentrating on the destination. VALUE.
I do not wish to plagiarise MickTrick (a great poster here) but I think that you may wish to Foxtrot Oscar, Little Nige.
Your bag-carriers, Redbox, Porters and PastaBelly may wish to join you on the trip.