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A classic hostile bid is unlikely here because management is a) very good and b) has a decent shareholding themselves and c) ONHYM really holds they keys to the castle.
So, it is more likely to be an unsolicited bid which some (including me) would view as being way too far down on the VALUE curve (at least as far as the SP currently stands).
However, any such bid could really act as a stalking horse and flush out competitive bids - basically an auction. Which could make things quite interesting.
I think that route would not optimise the VALUE here.
What we need to do is maximise the value of certain assets and sell them. And then distribute that crystallised VALUE to the shareholders via special dividend.
That would leave total optionality on the rest of the assets.
I have held a pretty decent size position in PRD for 3 years and I am very positive about the company and its leadership team.
But it has always been clear that the comms strategy has always been very weak - I have said that several times before.
There are a number of excellent PR/IR advisors in the City. Surely, it is to the advantage of the company - and its shareholders - to get in somebody who actually knows what they are doing on the comms front?
I am normally very much in favour of free speech, even if the content of same may be something I disagree with or is just stupid.
But the contents of the Jonny12 posting this morning were simply a scurrilous slur against a company and an individual.
And. short of a retraction and apology, I would applaud this wretched individual, Jonny12, being taken to the cleaners legally for what was appalling conduct. Which conduct had every potential to have negative effect on the reputation those accused by Jonny12.
People who say dangerous things on social media platforms should be held to account if what they say is lies or of malignant intent (usually both together).
GRH,
Hope the orchard has now been mown.
Mezuzahs are very interesting.
So, too, are Hamsa Hands (and I am not Jewish at all).
I think the wind is standing fair for PRD's destination VALUE.
In a world gone mad, this company looks to be very well placed indeed.
And I do have a Hamsa Hand....
Predicting SP movements is a total fool's errand.
Has always been thus.
The situation here may be rather different in that the SP may not actually be the scoreboard.
Because of the VALUE-crystallisation route (could be special dividend, whatever) that can be used.
Because of the extraordinary quality of assets that have been assembled by PG. Then he brought Lonny in and then Moyra. Extraordinary feat.
Obviously, I would prefer the SP to go up but that has never worried me at all - this thing is potentially so huge that the VALUE-crystallisation mechanism may not even be the SP.
I see it as being very happy days.
Silverfoil,
Predicting the market is a fool's errand.
And one should never take any sort of investment advice from either a bulletin board or an investment advisor.
But, I would simply observe here that the SP may not be the real VALUE play - if they go the special dividend route of VALUE-crystallisation, the SP may partially correlate to that but really becomes somewhat irrelevant.
In other words, shareholders can get real cash value without having to sell the stock.
And, do not forget, the stock still has huge upside potential outside of the Morocco assets. Basically, there there is pure optionality on Ireland and Trinidad.
What a trifecta play!
Well done the team and the well-informed shareholders here.
It looks like very good stuff indeed. Probably brilliant (GRH is usually right on these sort of things).
The team - PG, Lonny and Moyra - should be hugely applauded for what they are achieving here. Well done!
I said it before, Ill say it again - huge compliments to those titanium hands that stayed the course.
And we are still not at the destination, just in the foothills.
But the SP is indicative of the fact that the enormous VALUE created here is beginning to be recognised.
Which is a always a helpful development.
Monday, July 3rd, is a supermoon event, when the full moon looks especially large (because the moon is closer on its ellipse than usual).
The moon's behaviour can often be very propitious.
I look forward to PRD in the coming weeks.
Have a good weekend all.
There is a difference between a barometer and a compass.
A barometer (and its friend, a thermostat) tells you the pressure and the temperature at any given moment.
A compass tells you the destination.
PG, Lonny and Moyra are pulling off an awesome voyage.
With a compass, not a barometer.
To all that held firm here on the good ship PRD, have a lovely weekend!
Zebra,
Dilution is, of course, a factor.
But 100% of sod all is worth nothing.
And percentages can't be eaten or monetised.
Keep an eye on the SP (though short term movements are totally irrelevant in my view) and the VALUE-crystallisation mechanics (ideally a special dividend structure).
I definitely think that the corporate finance moves in PRD could have been much better handled than they were but, hopefully, the appointment of Fox-Davies will help there (and they should speak to GRH, who knows more than a fair bit about such matters).
Getting hung up on dilution is all about worrying about how much of the cake do I have.
Just get interested in the size of the cake and whether you are at the table to participate.
I echo the sentiments of many other here in welcoming you back, Caterham, and wishing you all the best for a recovery.
You added huge value. But, more than that, we are all human at the end of the day and can have nightmare situations on the journey.
So, it so good to hear you came through and I hope you have a good recovery.
Well done, PG, Lonny and Moyra!
And well done to the great posters here (GRH, KeithOz, Wacky, Methodology, Seabright, BillyRayVal, MickTrick and several others) who kept the detail focus (not just opinion stuff).
And to those that don't post much but have shown titanium hands and held through. That has made a huge difference here, even when the ship had encountered some challenging waters.
I do not know waht the SP will do, though I think it could move strongly to the positive, but the fact remains that the PRD team has demonstrably created potentially massive VALUE.
At some point, either the SP will reflect the enormity of that VALUE or there will be a value-crystallisation event (partial or total sale of the asset), result in a special dividend or something similar.
This has been a very happy morning and I am thrilled for PG and his team.
F&M,
I think you are very right.
Momentum players, day traders whatever, they are all part of the eco-system. Whether they ever make any real money is, in my view, questionable.
I know there are some great posters on here who add enormous value based on expertise and experience (GRH, KeithOz, Jimmy23, Methodology, Seabright, BRV, MickTrick - and there are several others). Their contributions - always fact-based - are immense.
But there are also quite a few LTH's here (and I know several of them), who don't post on the BB but read it avidly and have serious positions.
They have been very much part of the titanium hands brigade.
And they deserve real appreciation for not ever having panicked on the voyage.
I don't care too much about short-term SP movements but one would have to be a complete idiot not to have enjoyed the rise in last few days.
I still think we are way south of the SP reflecting the VALUE here but it always more helpful to see it trending towards that VALUE-correlation.
Share prices can sometimes behave rather like a random number generator but, especially in small caps, they can be heavily influenced by the quality of the research as to what the VALUE of the assets might actually be.
And this company has been incredibly lucky to have some extraordinarily brilliant posters who have contributed so much knowledge, expertise, experience and insight over a very long period of time. Obviously GRH, but KeithOz, Methodology, Seabright, BRV, MickTrick, Vegas (and I am sure there are some other great posters I have forgotten).
There has always been something special about this stock - and it might have very much to do with PG who put it all together and drove through turbulent storms.
But it also had a fair bit to do with those brilliant posters who shared so freely of their technical knowledge.
To them, I say thank you.
I thought the news this morning in the RNS was excellent. Maybe beyond excellent.
A real demonstration of true VALUE.
Created by a really strong leadership team (PG. Lonny and Moyra).
I was slightly surprised that the SP did not go up more on the news. That does not matter to me much - the SP is often more a reflection of the level of generalised stupidity in the market than a reflection of VALUE.
But, and I have some 30 years in the market, true quality - VALUE - in most cases, reflects at some point in either the SP or a VALUE-crystallisation mechanism (a Special Dividend, etc - which I would hope to be the case here).
Whatsoever turns out to be the optimal route to VALUE-crystallisation, this morning's RNS was a fantastic demonstration of the real assets that have been created here by the team.
And which the likes of GRH, KeithOz, Methodology, Jimmy23, BRV, Seabright, the Wacky, and several others have been brilliant in articulating over a long period of time.
The SP may not yet be reflecting the enormity of this morning's great news.
I am pretty sure that will come......
But
When the foundations are really solid - as now seems to have been strongly demonstrated - the SP will in due course reflect.
The market is not always perfect - far from it often - but that is usually temporary (though temporary can last quite a long time).
The demonstrated asset quality here will reflect in the SP in due course. Of that, I have no doubt. I would not have stayed in here for 3 years if I had thought otherwise.