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In my time holding PRD and being on this BB, GRH has written some pretty insightful stuff.
Of enormous VALUE.
One does not have to agree with everything he says (it is no secret that I largely do) but reading his posting trail is well worth the effort if you want to understand this company and the greater context - and potential/likelihood (I believe it to be more likelihood, though we have had, undoubtedly, some challenges on the timing front.
take what view you want on the likely outcome but one would be very well served by looking at GRH, Wacky, KeithOz, BRV, Jimmy23 and others to get a picture.
And, though I do not agree with him/them, in terms of context, one also might care to read the postings of Little Nige and his bag-carriers (Porters, PastaBelly, etc).
As ever, DYOR.
Enjoy the weekend.
Little Nige's contributions here often put me in mind of a great cricketing quip.
On an Ashes tour Down Under, Phil Tufnell, the notoriously hopeless England fielder and generally unkempt individual, was fielding down on the boundary in front of the Hill at the SCG.
One of the Aussie wags yelled out "Hey, Tufnell, come here and lend me your brain. I'm building an idiot".
Little Nige,
I think management could do comms lot better than they have done.
Other than the comms stuff, it seems to me that they are doing a really first class job and I am perfectly happy to be on their ship.
I thought the F-D analysis was pretty tight and consistent.
I am very focused on what I think the VALUE here to be (and my assumption there is some way nroth of 35p) and I think F-D provided good underpinning to their coming out at that number.
Of course, timing is a factor in the VALUE-calculus or we'd all be reading Rip van Winkle every day. But the market's timing can be a fickle beast and many of us have waited a while here (including PG himself, I might add).
I'd rather F-D focus on the VALUE-analysis than the timing. Evan people as informed and insightful as KeithOz can be out on the timing.
The VALUE-assessment by F-D, in my view, mitigates the risk. The timing must do what the timing will do.
I will wait it out because I think the VALUE could be very well worth the wait.
Once again, an excellent, calm analysis by KeithOz.
We all know PG is never going to win prizes for his comms skills.
And there have been some disappointment on the timing front.
But the extent and depth of the asset portfolio (and I am not talking geological depth here) looks to be excellent and certainly unusual in a sector often characterised by single project exposure/risk.
The very poor comms here makes this counter a difficult one for traders and I think that accounts for much of the puerile bile spilt on here by some.
I take the view that the delta is huge (put simply, the real asset value relative to the current price) and the gamma (time taken to realise the delta) is a little frustrating.
Certainly, slower than hoped.
These things happen.
For me, the likely delta dwarfs the gamma, so I am very much a stayer on board the good ship Predator.
I am one of those (and there would be seem to be rather more than a few) who do much appreciate KeithOz's informed and insightful comments from Down Under.
And glad that he has chosen to ignore some of the mewling infants throwing insults from the peanut gallery.
As regards RNS's, I would have to agree with Keith's observation that "anything is possible with this lot".
However, that observation applies too to their geological abilities - in a much more positive context. Certainly, people much cleverer than I (including KeithOz) seem to believe that PG, Lonny and Moyra are on track to deliver quite a motherlode in Morocco - indeed, maybe one of the great finds ever.
I am happy to stay well aboard in the belief they are right in their assessment.
I too am annoyed with yesterday's RNS and understand some of the frustrations voiced here on the BB.
I would also agree that PG now has a significant credibility issue. An issue that could have been avoided with a better comms strategy.
But credibility can be regained relatively easily and quickly with some good news.
Having reflected on yesterday and, whilst the RNS was structurally deficient (chucking the Morocco "update" in at the end, almost as an afterthought was poorly thought through), one needs to be careful about throwing the baby out with the bath water.
Testing or no testing, it still appears that the Morocco resource is potentially vast.
And, it would appear, a pretty good deal has been done in Trinidad.
Comms frustrations notwithstanding, I remain very positive on PRD.
I have been in PRD for some years now and remain of the view that there is probably very significant, maybe even enormous, VALUE in the assets.
But the comms have always been a disaster and have made the capital raisings more dilutive than was necessary, had there been a decent comms stratgey in place.
Today's RNS was very poor form and I think we would have been better off with no RNS than with one that raised so many more questions than answers.
I remain committed to staying aboard until we hit the final destination, but PG would do well to take heed of the loss of confidence in him that this RNS will create,
Little Nige,
Since you referenced me on your latest post, I think I may be entitled to respond.
I was indeed bullish PANR and have taken a pretty significant bath there.
It is possible that it was a wrong call (GRH did say it was a bad call and he has a pretty decent track record in these matters but I went ahead nonetheless. Cést la vie).
It happens. I had done all my research - and still remain confident on that PANR front, which is why I have not exited the position, despite the bath I have taken.
But the market can move against one's position, howsoever one may think the market to be wrong. That is the reality of the markets - and I would not wish it any other way.
Sometimes, one has truly lassoo'ed a dog and should probably cut it loose. I have done that a few times in my investing career (now some 40 years) but most times I have held, based on my initial analysis (itself based on destination, not weather on the trip).
PANR may or may not come back. I will hold.
PRD is, I think, different league in terms of the potential delta.
I am very happy to remain aboard PRD and think that there could be some good news ahead. maybe better than just good news.
I do think LSE may want to take a look at some of these troll posters and whether they are damaging the value of the BB.
Obviously, one needs to be very careful around freedom of expression and I don't believe anyone sane would advocate some of echo chamber of relentless positivity (I have said before that Jimmy23 in particular has posted some very well expressed and argued caveats about PRD).
But there may be something to be learned from the legal system, where there is the concept of a "vexatious litigant" who are just so unnecessarily irritating that they become precluded from accessing the court system at all.
I would encourage LSE to give some thought to actually barring some of these idiots - because I think they damage LSE's own value proposition of providing valuable BB's (which they do - and this one is normally an outstandingly good one).
I spent much of my career defending against hostile takeovers in London and New York.
I think there is a very - VERY - low probability of a hostile here because of the critical importance of PG, LB and MS and - probably even more importantly - the role of ONHYM. Nothing will happen without their approval.
I think that is a good thing. Any suitor for this very valuable asset will need to dance very well.
The SP does not always reflect but I think PRD is very well set.
Have a good weekend all.
I am not as well versed in the pure geological stuff as some of the excellent posters on here (KeithOz, GRH, Methodology, Seabright, BRV, etc).
But it would certainly appear to me that the leadership team (PG, Lonny, Moyra) are doing an excellent job in creating VALUE, even if said value may not yet be manifest in the SP.
That VALUE-creation will come, whether via Special Dividend or the SP itself. I have been here a while - 3 years - and if I did not believe that, I would have gone elsewhere.
I do believe it. More than quite strongly.
Rather tangentially, tonight is a Blue Moon. Have a look up at the sky - it will not recur until 2037.
The loss of GRH to the BB was a sad loss indeed, especially since it was caused by some miserable posters, some with possibly with ulterior motives.
I do hope GRH comes back in time but at least in the interim, we have a number of other outstanding quality posters (as well as our seemingly resident Klingons).
Those excellent posters are a very valuable resource to this BB - and, indeed, to this company.
I have generally been, and have long been, and very interested and favourable about Predator.
And the last placing looks to have been a mis-managed fiasco, albeit that the size of the ultimate prize looks that could all get lost ultimately in the noise.
And I know anyone can be an armchair investment banking (Monday morning quarterback) but I do the company and shareholders would have been better served to do this placing on a basis that outwardly looks better (one can never really know exactly what is going on inside the tent).
But I would have though the company or advisers must have given some thought to the royalties route? These are speciaist financiers (many in London) that focus usually on mining and provide financing (often significant) based on a share (royalties) of the production going forward.
It is very different to debt financing (they royalties guys share on the upside and the downside potentials). But it can in mining cases, mining especially, be much less dilutive that other forms of investment.
The royalties solution is often used in mining but with an exploratory O&G explorer, there is little substantive difference. Either way it is rock you are drilling.
I remain a very strong and committed holder on the journey and I hope the SP shenanigans will now draw to a close.
Louis10,
My analysis of stocks is ruthlessly analytical and logical. And contrary to what that ludicrous fool, Little Nige, suggests, I do know a fair bit about some parts of O&G (especially CCS/EOR), though I am nowhere in the league of KeithOz, GRH, Methodology, Seabright, Wacky, etc when it comes to real technical expertise.
As for the Blue Moon, I just thought it was interesting and might have brought a slightly different perspective to a board which you and a few others have sought to poison of late.
I tend to be a fairly rational short of chap and not overly prone to the mystic side of things.
But I do sometimes think that spreadsheets are not always the only indicator of outcomes (call it "gut feel").
Tomorrow night (Aug 1st) is a supermoon. And it will happen again on Aug 31st. Twice in a month makes it a Blue Moon.
This is a very rare phenomenon and will only recur again in 2037.
One should hardly invest based on the moon but I am very positive PRD.....