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Yup, that sounds about right (assuming they immediately convert) plus around 1.9bn warrants. Numbers will vary on SP though

Agreed filthy, got a feeling we could get more of these types of surprises going forward. TL are speeding things up, that’s for sure

Santiago, stop trying to manipulate the price to reflect the current direction of your spreadbet

This is pretty big news. Good to see Chuditch also get a mention, I wonder whether the JV will also build a pipleline from Bayu Undan to Chuditch, assuming the drill is successful.

Yawn Santiago, you were ramping the other day - shorting now

I think your numbers are broadly correct BoomBoom.

A share price of 0.05 traslates to a conversion price of 0.0425. Assuming all tranches are converted at that price we get circa 16bn new shares issues, translating to 41bn shares in issue (38% dilution). There will also be 9bn of warrants issued, which if exercised will give Sunda a further £5.5m cash, but will translate to a total shares in issue of 50bn, i.e. 50% dilution.

In terms of a success case, Hannam valued Chuditch on an risked basis at 0.26p per share (assuming 50% dilution) and on an unrisked basis at 1p per share

Playing about with the numbers, it would seem to me that the worst dilution possible would be if the CLNs were all converted at around 0.03p (which gives a conversion price of 0.0255p - it is not possible to go below this as the par value of the shares is 0.025p and it is not possible to issue shares below par price).

At 0.03p, I get approx dilution of 51% or, if warrants are also exercised, 62%.

At 0.05p, I get approx dilution of 38% or, if warrants are also exercised, 50%.

At 0.07p, I get approx dilution of 31% or, if warrants are also exercised, 41%.

At 0.1p, I get approx dilution of 24% or, if warrants are also exercised, 33%.

No matter what price the CLNs are converted at (and the resultant warrant exercise prices), it would seem the warrants are structured such that, if fully exercised, they would raise SNDA an additional approx. £5m.

These are just my numbers, which could be subject to mistakes and so should not be replied upon, so please be aware and run your own checks to see whether you agree with them.

Its to prove the gas is commercial, flow rates are unknown as Shell never tested them

It will be in the shortly to be published accounts Silva.

Mind you the interims show that Director and employee expenses fell by £120k for the first six months of 2024, so perhaps a £240k reduction annualised. Mind you Director severance payments were £299k, so this points to a much tighter ship under AB.

Https://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/Project/SO-19-16/250424TradeMediaChuditchBuyIn.pdf

Talking about non-credible posters…

You may also find this useful filthy

https://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/Project/SO-19-16/250422SundaGBU%20EIA%20PC.pdf

If you read back on his history filthy he says he was ex Oil M&A/trading. So probably knows a lot of people in the industry.

Agreed filthy, CLNs get a very bad press on Aim due to their underhand use. But they are used elsewhere in business on a positive basis. It really boils down to who the investors are and whether they have some interest in the drill and upside, or are just in it for a quick buck. In a way, it depends just how desperate SNDA were for the cash

I think its the higher of the two

It's not quite right to say we have been diluted 50%.

At a 60% working interest we had to pay 80% of the drill costs ($25.6m).

At a (now) 30% working interest, we have to pay 28% of the drill costs ($9m).

So whilst our working interest has halved, our financial payment obligation has reduced by 65%. Which is not a bad deal given we have evidently struggled to raise funds.

Understood.

The question is how much Andy, Hannam & Partners etc are going to promote Sunda in the run up to the drill to help ensure trajectory heads upwards....

Yup, AB navigating the politics really well imo. Woodside on the otherhand...

Thanks filthy. I wonder whether this is a break down between the parties or more practical given Oz elections coming up

Yup shocking behaviour. I’m going to avoid all MAB businesses until they take ownership and properly apologise.