Member Info for SeaTank8300

The LSE site has a bug this evening. I've moved from my mobile to my PC to post the full message...

The difference between JSE and SEPL:

JSE's operating assets are aged and relatively complex with little chance of any upside surprise; sadly only downside surprises. Their development projects are decent but development = unknowns and yet to produce cash flow.

SEPL's operating assets have 20+ years of life, are low risk onshore assets, with underground pipeline infrastructure to export with low risk of disruption, a large scale gas to liquids plant about to fire up, a 93k bopd acquisition at

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The difference between JSE and SEPL:

JSE's operating assets are aged and relatively complex with little chance of any upside surprise; sadly only downside surprises. Their development projects are decent but development = unknowns and yet to produce cash flow.

SEPL's operating assets have 20+ years of life, are low risk onshore assets, with underground pipeline infrastructure to export with low risk of disruption, a large scale gas to liquids plant about to fire up, a 93k bopd acquisition at

The difference between JSE and SEPL:

JSE's operating assets are aged and relatively complex with little chance of any upside surprise; sadly only downside surprises. Their development projects are decent but development = unknowns and yet to produce cash flow.

SEPL's operating assets have 20+ years of life, are low risk onshore assets, with underground pipeline infrastructure to export with low risk of disruption, a large scale gas to liquids plant about to fire up, a 93k bopd acquisition at

i own a very small amount of jse, what a **** show it has been. i've learnt a lesson about low quality assets.

suggest folks take a look at sepl, a steady winner i have owned since 2019 - decades of reserve life, diversified across dozens of wells, low risk operations, with upside from a huge mid stream capacity addition in december and the acquisition of a major exxon asset early next year, plus a 10% yield aid quarterly.

Apologies I meant $3.2m in value traded today - which is the most in years

3.2m shares traded today and nudging upwards :)

This is a candid comment on the state of NNPC - I believe Tinubu understands this too

https://africaoilgasreport.com/2023/08/in-the-news/nnpc-should-focus-on-the-technical-job-not-playing-games-with-financial-engineering/

NNPC's annual financial statements should be available but their website link doesn't work. From what I hear the organisation's balance sheet is in poor shape and it is not in the position to be buying operating assets from the majors. Some are suggesting that the NNPC may need to raise cash by selling additional stakes of their JV operating assets. Seplat could therefore be in a position to not only take over MNPU but also increase their ownership of the assets. It's all speculation, but interesting speculation.

Investors are waiting for progress to be shown at the next trading update, end of September

Https://thewhistler.ng/heineken-lokpobiri-bringing-impressive-record-of-accomplishments-to-petroleum-resources-ministry/

As per the presentation which is still correct the project will produce 245mmscfd gas and 20k bbld condensate, and profits after debt servicing and tax will be split 50:50 between Seplat and NGC. A rough estimate at $70 oil is $60m in dividend cash flow to Seplat. Seplat has been saying for the past three years that when ANOH starts paying dividends it will be passed through to Seplat shareholders as dividend. $60m is another 10 cents in annual dividend, paid quarterly. So at the current oil price we can expect annual dividends come 2024 will amount to ~25 cents gross or ~17p in the pocket. That places SEPL on a 13% dividend yield at 130p. This still leaves SEPL throwing off $250m unused free cash flow - the dividend could be doubled again to >30p if appropriate investments aren't found. And all this is without MPNU.

I hear management are quite confident about ANOH commissioning at end of the year + MPNU on original terms. Nothing that isn't already stated in shareholder communication but underscores the momentum this stock can likely maintain.

To provide more context, the figures below re DDM are very conservative indeed, as the starting point of 17p dividend in pocket is $150m in total value terms versus $400m annual free cash flow, so I think one could conservatively input an 8% dividend growth rate instead (which would take dividend to a little over $300m/year in ten years time): the Fair Value becomes 300p!

Trek, I used a simple DDM calculator online using the following assumptions to reach a Fair Value of 198p as at end of this year:

My forecast of 17p dividend from 2024 (which assumes ANOH is operational)

Cost of equity 14%

Dividend growth rate 5%

The cost of equity and growth rate assumptions drive most of the end result. My view is, given Seplat's crucial position in the industry in Nigeria, solid corporate governance, USD revenues, AEP that vastly lowers risk from theft and security, and diversified production platform (across dozens and dozens of wells), in my view CoE at 14% is fair.

These lending institutions haven't had practical influence in Nigeria for at least the last decade. Any assertion that they are behind these policy changes is spurious.

Once ANOH is operational, a very rough guess is $500m of operating cash flow after cash taxes from current operations + minimum $60m of cash dividends from ANOH (I'm guessing, equivalent to $16/boe)) - capex of $160m = $400m of free cash flow.

The current dividend baseline is 15 cents (i.e. 12 cents core + a special to bring in line with last year's total), is $90m in total. The board and Roger have stated their intention to raise the dividend next year, which in my view will be a minimum of 25 cents ($150m) since will pass through the ANOH cash flow into the dividend. That still leaves unused annual free cash flow of $250m. There's no project on the horizon that can soak up this much cash, annually. So, it will also have to come back to shareholders once debt is paid down, assuming no further acquisitions are made.

Roger states "...launching our joint venture ANOH Gas Processing Plant, which will significantly boost our cash generation in the coming years. We expect that this will enable us to fund additional investment in Nigeria's energy infrastructure and return higher dividends to shareholders."

As I said before, ANOH cash flow will be heading to shareholders via increased dividends.

The webcast, starting at 9am, should underscore this dividend outlook. The scope for dividends to be raised is material. In my view, by at least another 10 cents/year.

"Regarding the Spur Line project, all line pipes required for all 23.3km spur line sections are now in country and have been delivered to the project site. The first phase of the spur line (5.5km length) has been completed, with another 4.5km currently in progress. Our government partner has confirmed the revised completion date of Q3 2023."

"In terms of upstream development, the drilling of the third well has been completed, and work on the fourth well is ongoing, with expected completion before the end of Q3 2023. Additionally, work on surface facilities required to deliver wet gas to the AGPC plant is in progress and expected to be completed by the upstream unit operator, SPDC, in Q4 2023."

This is our next dependable share price catalyst - great to hear still on track for Q4

Raxfactor doesn't know what he is talking about. The US/IMF/WB are not involved in Nigeria. China has no interest nor does anyone else. The country is in a significantly better position than it was 6 months ago thanks to the reforms.

The way the share price has been moving, I'm expecting some positive news tomorrow!