Member Info for SeagullsFan

IMO, the next catalysts are:
1.Lead-acid variation license.
2.Start of operations at lithium plant..
3.Recyclus takeover completion.

I don’t think full license will be much of a SP driver.

Based on the recent Roast podcast where they discussed a portal for selling black-mass, I don’t see deals for offtake (just my opinion).
They could be discussing the licensing of their technology for car companies/giga factories to allow on-site recycling as this has been discussed too.
Maybe news on Halo boxes could happen.

News flow will be steady through the next few months though.

Sorry to hear that Bluesky.
Yep, we had some banter but that’s all it was.

Hope things sort out for you and you managed to exit in profit.

Hopefully you can buy back in in future.

Should be OK as there's been quite a few new members join so it appears fine.

Copy/paste the text into notepad, remove ALL spaces and then use that string as the link to telegram.

https: // t .me /join chat / Zg0raSxQbT85Y2Fk

Remove the spaces from the link.
LSE hides links for some reason.

Do you use telegram?
If so, you there’s a telegram group which you’d be very welcome to join.
Happy to post link here.
It’s a decent crowd in there.

@Swanny

Wow, you-lucky bugger haha.

I hold 14m from pre-IPO, IPO and subsequent buying.
I know another investor with over 20m.
I thought we were doing well :).

You’re going to do very well here IMO. I’ve made several posts which outline my views on the scale of the potential here, but I’m sure you’re very aware of the future prospects.

You may not wish to answer, but are you the person who invested recently which allowed the Macquarie bank facility to be halted?

So you have 100m shares Swanny27 or is that a miscalculation?

100m * £10 = £1bln.

If not, then that’s a serious holding.

You continually post predictions which fail.
However, you will eventually be right as this will hit 3p.
However, that won’t validate your BS predictions as a stopped clock is right twice per day.

You sound like an inexperienced novice who knows the grand total of f..k all.
I’ll continue to point out the stupidity of your pointless posts.
And I can’t be accused of de-ramping as I’ve posted about the future of TM1 and it being undervalued.

Rampers making the usual unfounded BS posts.

This may rise this week.
It is undervalued.
There is no way of knowing when it will rise as it’s down to the actions of investors.

But continually repeating the same crap every week is pointless.

I’m very positive on TM1 as a medium/long term investment. Anyone posting short-term predictions is full of sh.t.

It’s a BS statement @Da_Mole.
Making a statement with nothing to back it up.

This will increase by more than 60% this year due to operations starting and also with the news that will keep coming IMO.

Ignore idiots like that and ignore the rampers too who continually make wild SP predictions.
As I’ve stated before, IMO TM1 is very undervalued and will be even more so once operations start. However, I don’t know when a re-rate will occur but eventually fair value will be reflected.

@Da_Mole

Yes, it shot up by a huge amount after a successful trial of a Covid treatment. This is what can happen in pharmaceutical companies and exploration companies. On the other side, if these companies fail in their trials/exploration, you lose your money or at least get a severe haircut/dilution when they raise more funds on a lower SP.

Rampers only ever give you one side of the story, not the complete story. You can look at the SP on SYN and check the RNS history for June 2020.

However, TM1 is clearly not in this arena and it will not give you a return like that on one day/week. However, to balance that, you aren't taking the same level of risk. This will become a recycling/manufacturing company and gradually grow over the next few years. TM1 have no game-changing news to announce to warrant such a price re-rate. We only got a 20% uplift on the draft permit news which surprised me - I expected we'd go from 2p to 3p. If that news didn't cause the re-rate, what will?

IMO, TM1 will give you multiples of your investment but over time - and yes it could hit 8-10p later this year (and even higher) as I initially had that as a target price for end of last year but the permit delays killed that. And I envisage a very healthy return over 3-5 years.

There are several catalysts which will drive the SP higher IMO.

1. Lead-acid variation license (to allow the recycling to automated and not manual).
2. Production starting at lithium plant.
3. Completion of recyclus deal (my thoughts are June/July on this after production starts).
4.News of deals with companies which my have large volumes to be recycled.
5.News on battery box sales.
6.Progress on mines/joint ventures.
7.News on additional sites for plants 3&4.
8.Financial figures showing profitability once in production.
9.News on discussions about expansion into USA, EU and/or Asia. This will be via agreements and licensing of technology from what they’ve said.

So, bearing in mind the above and the number of things which will impact sentiment my guess would be somewhere over 6p by year end (and possibly quite a bit higher as it’s seriously undervalued at these levels).
By end of 2024, I would hope we’d be over 15p as the level of profitability which the lithium plant(s) will generate is huge.

15p will equate to an mcap of approx £360m.
2 lithium plants will generate profit of £70+(IMO).
2 lead-acid plants will generate profit of 30%, so let’s guess at £10m (wild guess).

That’s guesstimate of £80m, which gives P/E ratio of 4.5. Cheap!!!!

As stated before, estimating SP is a mugs game. Look at the fundamentals of the company.

Short-term the SP is a voting machine.
Long term it’s a weighing machine.
i.e. eventually the SP will reflect the business and won’t be based on whatever the latest fad is.

Hey Hardcore1.
I get the enthusiasm, but you come across as a ramper.
Short-term predictions are a mugs game.
The only news I’m expecting short-term is the full license to replace to draft-could hit this week.

Next month I expect the license for the lead-acid plant and news on production starting at the lithium plant, subject to completion of the fire system.

I try not to put expectations on SP movements as they are influenced by how well known a company is, market sentiment and investor sentiment.

Yes, TM1 is undervalued but IMO (in other words it’s a guess), the SP won’t get too much momentum until the lithium plant is operational and the recyclus deal completes.

I’d expect gains in the short-term but nothing exceptional.

Medium/longer term this will make great returns based on what I see as profit levels it can achieve. The figures I’ve posted are purely from the lithium site and do not take into account the lead-acid, halo battery boxes nor the mining assets.

Try to forget about short-term targets (unless you’re a trader haha), as the SP will eventually reflect true value.

@MooPoo

TM1 is a large holding.
I have a big investment (multiple 6 figures) in a pre-IPO company called Spectrum X.Hoping they will debut Q4/23 or maybe Q1/24. Long delays due to market conditions.

I’m invested in Helium1 and am optimistic they will announce a rig soon and drill June/July. It’s exploration so risky but superb returns if they get a discovery.

I’m also very interested in Prospex Energy (PXEN) and Cleantech Lithium (CTL) but I don’t have positions in them yet. They are good medium/long term holdings I feel but I’ve not done in-depth research.

I have other holdings but they aren’t ones I’d recommend lol

IMO, you've chosen a good company.

If you can be patient, then the growth here will be really good. The plans are 5 of each plant - adding 1 of each per year and the approval process should be faster now they've done it once with the EA.

With the level of excess cash they will be generating I don't see the need for any more shares to be issued so the risk of dilution is low (not saying 100% they won't need to do any, but it's not something which concerns me unlike a lot of AIM companies).

The gate-fees they can currently command will diminish over time and then eventually stop once there are a lot more players on the lithium recycling market. I don't see that happening for a few years minimum.

So, if they can get say 4 of each plant up and running all generating gate fees and high profits from the black mass (as the level of demand will stay high due to the EV drive), then that's conservatively £196m turnover from the litihum plants and (based on my calcs) profits of £144m (this could even be a bit conservative but it's a guess).

Then factor in profits from the lead-acid plants.
In 3-4 years, you'd hope some decent activities on at least 1 or 2 mining assets.

A guesstimate of £175m profit p.a. in 4 years and, lets say a price/earnings ratio of 5, that means TM1 could be a £800-900m mcap company. I can't believe I've just written that.

My logic for 1st plant figures is:
i . Gate fees are bonus right now and we know this is pure profit as it will eventually not be available. Must be profitable without it. Gate fees are between 1500 and 4500/tonne. (From roast podcast).
ii. Black mass price at IPO time was 3500/tonne. It's now between 5000/6000 per tonne. This increase (from 3500 -> 5000+) again is pure profit.

Gate fees - 8300 tonnes p.a. @ average price of 2500/tonne = £20.8m
Black mass - 5000 p.a. @ 5500/tonne = £27.5m

Turnover £48.3 and profit £36m

(Sorry - when typing this I noticed an error in my spreadsheet which had inflated the black mass figures, which impacted the turnover/profit). Figures in this post are correct - previous post they were out a bit.

@Da_Mole

Are you bought shares in TM1 to make a quick return (2-3 times your buying price) or as an investment with the intention to hold for a year or more?

I've been invested since pre-ipo and ipo. Bought more when they were about 1.5 or so and hold in excess of 10m shares

If you want to make a quick return (which I think is possible) then it's hard to determine exactly when the gains are going to be. They've had the permit news and I don't expect much more upwards momentum until other news comes through.
That next catalyst will, IMO, be the start of production.

This will give them gates fees in addition to the excellent margins on the black mass (see my previous post which covers this).

As long as you're not time-constrained to get a return in 2-3 weeks, then, once the news of production and possible deals comes through, and maybe halo boxes too, the SP will take care of itself. I hope we'll exceed the previous high of 5.2p by the end of June and maybe before. however, making SP predictions is a mugs game as it's down to the sentiment of all investors. From what I've seen, the ones who continually go on about SP gains know the least about how to value a company and are just guessing or ramping.

You'll always get traders/rampers on board pushing unrealistic timelines, but looking at the fundamentals here we are currently undervalued and that's before we start production.

The completion of the recyclus deal will add clarity and I believe that small institutional investors will be looking to take stakes once the recyclus deal completes and the mcap exceeds £100m (that will be just over 4p on the enlarges capital share base post the recyclus deal completion).

If you're looking to hold this in excess of 12 months (and hopefully longer) you'll make great returns.
I've calculated the turnover from 1 shift of the lithium plant (based on average gate-fees and the increased selling price of black mass) as approx £60m p.a.
The profit on this is about £40m p.a.

That excludes lead-acid plant, battery boxes and mines.
If they can increase the allowed though-put at the plant to allow a 2nd shift, you can double those figures.

However, you need to increase the share base to 2378m which give an mcap of £57m approx (as they are issuing more shares to fund the recyclus deal).
So, once production starts, the current SP is apprxx 1.5 years profits, which is incredibly cheap.

No, you stated there could be public consultation.
That’s 100% BS.

Jog on jerk.

Oh, and if you’re wondering about growth prospects/profitability of TM1 read my posts/thread explaining the revenues/profits just from 1 shift of the Lithium plant then your “to the mooooon” will seem very possible.

Hope that helps

I always get suspicious of new posters with a post count of 1 throwing uncertainty around.

Usually,people trying to talk stuff down.

@milohimself

You’re either unknowingly or intentionally trying to spread FUD.

The process is clear.
It’s already gone through public consultation-FACT.
The EA have issued Recyclus with a draft of the license to allow them up to 10 days to challenge/question the scope/restrictions of the license. They have already replied to the EA to accept the license.

All that happens now is they are waiting for the signed copy to be sent throuigh.
Nothing else. No more questions/consultations.

If you think otherwise you’re 100% wrong.