TM1 SP vs News Flow1 Nov 2023 11:45
IMO, the SP is incredibly cheap.
What do we currently know?
First, production is approx 25 tonnes per day and min gate-fees being paid are £2600/tonne.
That’s £65k/ day or £1.3m/month of revenue.
No revenue YET from black mass sales, but permits are in progress. I’m hoping for news on that by year-end, maybe sooner.
Black mass from 25 tonnes/day is approx 15 tonnes.
Let’s go for a lower than quoted price for black mass of £4,000/tonne.
That would be £60k/day or £1.2m/month additional revenue.
Let’s assume operating costs of 70% on the black mass (based on the IPO expected price of £3500/tonne, that’s £1m/month).
So, £2.5m revenue and £1.5m profit per month or £18m/year.
Note : this is on 6000 tonnes per year, not on the 8300 they can do on 1 shift. Also, they have stated they want to got to 16,000 tonnes than 22,000 tonnes. Marginal profits will be higher as fixed costs have already been recovered.
Also, this doesn’t include profits from lead-acid plant - let’s assume that’s £10m p.a. after full commissioning by H2/2024.
Need to factor in that currently TM1 only own 48.35% of recyclus, but that’s being sorted soon. Mcap based on the new shares post recyclus would be circa £32m, and on only 75% throughput of the lithium plant we’re looking at possibly £18m profit.
Anyone selling now either has no clue what TM1 is about to achieve next year, or maybe they are in an unfortunate position of needing cash.
Of course, these figures are rough order of magnitude, but are a reasonable case IMO.
Just my own thoughts of course.
SGF