Cleverly has had nothing to do with TM1/Recyclus since 2021.
Jeez, this has is a complete tool.
Luckily most people are using telegram and are immune from the inane ramblings of tw_ts like ajs.
Ooh, I know something really bad, but I won’t ell you and I’ll make up stories about an RNS which are clearly wrong and think that people will be fooled :-D
Excellent post Flypanam.
Just think about it - if a group of people feel that a share is going to have a great future, would it not be in their interest to try to scare people into selling to reduce the price.
OR
There is suddenly this band of white knights riding to the rescue of investors in a share in which these white knights don’t hold any shares.
Jeez, I can’t imagine which one of those seems the most likely explanation.
Ksarar.
It would seem sensible to sell up then if you’re holding shares in a company that you don’t trust, especially if they are ‘free’ ones. Only an idiot would hold shares which he expects to go down/fail.
It’s already been explained to you the structure of the loan facility.
But, you clearly don’t have the mental capabilities to understand. Never mind precious, just know that you’re being laughed at.
@OldWasp
I think you’re being very conservative there with your projections.
They are currently getting gate fees (min) of £2600/tonne.
They plan to process 8000 tonnes p.a. That’s £20.6m revenue.
Then, they expect to sell the black mass (prices quoted are between £5k & £6/tonne). Let’s assume only £4K/tonne for now.
They will generate 5000 tonnes of black mass from 8000 tonnes of feedstock.
5000 * £4000 = £20m.
£20m + £26m = £46m revenue (Note : I’ve taken low figures on both).
Let’s assume £1m/month op costs on the lithium plant - £12m p.a.
Then, the lead acid plan could generate £10m profit once commissioning completes and then ramps up (so maybe £5m in 2nd half 2024).
That excludes any possible expansion in shifts at the lithium plant beyond 8000 tonnes.
Quite easy to work out a range of possible profit figures from the above.
Then take a P/E ratio of say 15 to get to a mcap,
Then divide that by 2500m shares (share capital after recyclus deal).
So, I’m targeting much more than 5p end of 2024 personally.
The reason for the company to act as an intermediary would appear to be to provide shares as a security for the loan.
TM1 can’t provide shares as they are owned by shareholders - not TM1.
So, Alex’s company has provided the shares in his company as security and has taken the loan facility.
This loan facility is then available to provide funds to recyclus IF THEY NEED THEM. And only for the amount they need. They may only need £100k as short term funding.
They have only just started operations fully at the Lithium plant, and they may be incurring large legal/consultancy fees for progress the recyclus deal. As they can’t sell the black mass yet, their revenue stream is limited to gate-fees.
This loan facility provide breathing space.
Again, it’s a LOAN FACILITY and not a LOAN.
But you’re too thick to understand the difference and like to post garbage.
No-one believes what you’re posting as they can see that you’re just trying to de-ramp.
AJs.
There is no share selling - the shares are the security offered for the loan facility,
However, it’s a loan facility and not a loan - and there is a clear distinction between the 2. The loan facility gives them the ability to call off money as and when required, and repay as and when they can. Hence the large interest rate - it’s like comparing a credit card rate to a bank loan rate - the rates are very different.
As they will be throwing off cash soon, this is a short-term funding requirement IMO.
Also, once the recyclus deal completes by Jan/24 latest (IMO), the whole group structure will be a non-issue.
“Loan amounts drawn from CCL by Recyclus under the Facility, which are repayable to CLG after 12 months and which bear interest at the Bank of England base rate plus 10%, are reimbursable to CCL by Recyclus under similar terms. The security on the loan is provided in the form of a charge over shares held by CCL in Technology Minerals. Therefore, 181,405,895 ordinary shares (representing 11.98% of the total issued share capital of the Company) have been transferred from CCL to CLG.“
The SP will fly here over next 2 years IMO.
Bounced this for those people not in the telegram group (it’s an App like WhatsApp you need to install).
Much more active.
Any questions about joining, post them here.
There is limited risk to TM1.
It’s operating the lithium plant at 75% capacity for 1 shift and germinating revenue of £1.3m / month.
The mining assets are irrelevant for the mcap.
Lead-acid plant will be at full production at least by H2/2024.
Markets are poor, but too many PI’s (IMO) don’t understand what they invest in, they just follow the herd.
This is a share which is currently very much under the radar - at some point that will change.
IMO, the SP is incredibly cheap.
What do we currently know?
First, production is approx 25 tonnes per day and min gate-fees being paid are £2600/tonne.
That’s £65k/ day or £1.3m/month of revenue.
No revenue YET from black mass sales, but permits are in progress. I’m hoping for news on that by year-end, maybe sooner.
Black mass from 25 tonnes/day is approx 15 tonnes.
Let’s go for a lower than quoted price for black mass of £4,000/tonne.
That would be £60k/day or £1.2m/month additional revenue.
Let’s assume operating costs of 70% on the black mass (based on the IPO expected price of £3500/tonne, that’s £1m/month).
So, £2.5m revenue and £1.5m profit per month or £18m/year.
Note : this is on 6000 tonnes per year, not on the 8300 they can do on 1 shift. Also, they have stated they want to got to 16,000 tonnes than 22,000 tonnes. Marginal profits will be higher as fixed costs have already been recovered.
Also, this doesn’t include profits from lead-acid plant - let’s assume that’s £10m p.a. after full commissioning by H2/2024.
Need to factor in that currently TM1 only own 48.35% of recyclus, but that’s being sorted soon. Mcap based on the new shares post recyclus would be circa £32m, and on only 75% throughput of the lithium plant we’re looking at possibly £18m profit.
Anyone selling now either has no clue what TM1 is about to achieve next year, or maybe they are in an unfortunate position of needing cash.
Of course, these figures are rough order of magnitude, but are a reasonable case IMO.
Just my own thoughts of course.
SGF
Good update. No impact to the cash position on TM1 and totally separate from the recycling side, but if one or more of these mining projects get into production in the future, it’ll be straight profit to the bottom line and no outlay. The only time TM1 will need to possibly spend money is if they decide to retain a higher percentage of the project when it gets to funding the mine.
The recycling will drive this in the short-terms, but these mining projects have the ability to add decent value to the company in the medium/long term. What’s not to like? :-D.
It’s Telegram messenger
News flow is going to be good over next few months. Ignore the SP as it’s drifting on not that high a volume.
For those who aren’t in the Telegram group, there’s links which have been posted recently to join.
Much more active than LSE.
If you’re not sure what Telegram is, it’s an app like WhatsApp - just download and create an account.
Any questions, put on here and I’ll try to help/
The reality is they aren’t large sales. The mcap is circa £25m and the large sale was £5k.
What this needs is clarity on the operations plan for the lithium plant now commissioning is complete. The lack of PR since the RNS last week seems odd. Normally, a company would be doing interviews to get th word out, so that makes me think there’s a lot being worked on currently which will result in a media push once other things are announced.
Just my take on things and could well be wrong.
I don’t think there’s many selling out, I think there’s the usual traders and maybe some people who got fed up with the wait and are taking the opportunity to get out. Not that many sells really.
I’m expecting a very good end to the year here with lots of news flow. 12 months time this will be much higher IMO - quite a bit above previous high of 5.3p.
Bounced for potential new investors.
Any problems in joining telegram, post here and I’ll get back to you.
Great news.
They will now focus on getting to full throughput of 8300 tonnes p.a.
Black mass sales on that will be 5000 tonnes.
Gate fees on 8300 tonnes could be approx £20m p.a. (Varies between £1500 and £4500 per tonne).
Black mass sales could be approx £27m (quoted figures are between £5000 and £6000 per tonne).
So in the region of £45/£50m turnover and high profit.
This doesn’t factor in the lead-acid plant either.
Mcap (assuming 2500m shares after Recyclus deal) @ 2p/share is £50m.
You do the math. :-).
Very happy holding here - too many PI’s are needy IMO.
The RNS about the commissioning stated they are “targeting” the end of Sep (after the original date of end of Oct).
We’re now 25th Sep and people are getting irritable because they haven’t announced BEFORE the end of Sep. I just don’t get it. Also, I don’t give a flying if they don’t announce until early Oct. They may be waiting for sign-off from the EA for all we know, and we know how slow they’ve been with everything else.
Lot’s of good stuff to come here IMO. A few days is not material to me.
@isas
So, you don’t think the FCA has any involvement in the recyclus deal being completed? Wow.
There’s me assuming that it would require some regulatory approval. Thanks for the insight.
@mafiosa
From the same RNS.
“ The Company's 48.25% owned battery recycling group, Recyclus Group Limited, is carrying out commissioning at its first lithium-ion ("Li-ion") recycling plant in Wolverhampton and the CLNs will provide further support as the plant moves towards the commencement of commercial production which is targeted to be by the end of September 2023. In addition, Recyclus' first lead acid battery recycling plant at Tipton is expected to obtain permitting from the Environmental Agency shortly to enable production to commence at industrial scale. The Company continues its twin-track growth strategy to create a circular economy for battery metals with continued development of its battery metals exploration assets.”
Once full production starts there will (should) be 2 revenue streams from the lithium plant.
1. Gate fees.
8,0000 tonnes p.a. feedstock.
666.67 tonnes per month.
Quoted figures are Min - £1500/tonne. Max - £4500/tonne. Let’s assume £2500/tonne.
Revenue = £1,666,666 per month.
2 Black mass sales.
5000 tonnes p.a. expected from 8000 tonnes feedstock.
Quoted figures are £5000-£6000 tones.
5000 / 12 * £5000 = £2,083,333 per month revenue.
I am not saying the feedstock is available nor that the black-mass will be sold, but let’s assume that it will be, that equates to circa £3.7m per month in revenue.
Costs for plant cannot be huge as it’s already in ramp-up phase. Let’s say at an EXTREME case it’s £1m, jeez, look at all that lovely profit.
For those that can’t work it out, it could be in the region of £2.5-£2.7m per month.
(Allowing for the increased shares 2.5 bln once the recyclus deal completes, the mcap is approx £37m now.
Poss profit = £2.5m * 12 = £30m p.a.) I’m sure there are other expenses for mining assets etc and new plants, but this is gonna fly IMO.
If you dispute, please prove reasons why.