Member Info for SeagullsFan

I don’t think there’s many selling out, I think there’s the usual traders and maybe some people who got fed up with the wait and are taking the opportunity to get out. Not that many sells really.

I’m expecting a very good end to the year here with lots of news flow. 12 months time this will be much higher IMO - quite a bit above previous high of 5.3p.

Bounced for potential new investors.

Any problems in joining telegram, post here and I’ll get back to you.

Great news.

They will now focus on getting to full throughput of 8300 tonnes p.a.

Black mass sales on that will be 5000 tonnes.

Gate fees on 8300 tonnes could be approx £20m p.a. (Varies between £1500 and £4500 per tonne).

Black mass sales could be approx £27m (quoted figures are between £5000 and £6000 per tonne).

So in the region of £45/£50m turnover and high profit.

This doesn’t factor in the lead-acid plant either.

Mcap (assuming 2500m shares after Recyclus deal) @ 2p/share is £50m.

You do the math. :-).

Very happy holding here - too many PI’s are needy IMO.

The RNS about the commissioning stated they are “targeting” the end of Sep (after the original date of end of Oct).

We’re now 25th Sep and people are getting irritable because they haven’t announced BEFORE the end of Sep. I just don’t get it. Also, I don’t give a flying if they don’t announce until early Oct. They may be waiting for sign-off from the EA for all we know, and we know how slow they’ve been with everything else.

Lot’s of good stuff to come here IMO. A few days is not material to me.

@isas

So, you don’t think the FCA has any involvement in the recyclus deal being completed? Wow.

There’s me assuming that it would require some regulatory approval. Thanks for the insight.

@mafiosa

From the same RNS.

“ The Company's 48.25% owned battery recycling group, Recyclus Group Limited, is carrying out commissioning at its first lithium-ion ("Li-ion") recycling plant in Wolverhampton and the CLNs will provide further support as the plant moves towards the commencement of commercial production which is targeted to be by the end of September 2023. In addition, Recyclus' first lead acid battery recycling plant at Tipton is expected to obtain permitting from the Environmental Agency shortly to enable production to commence at industrial scale. The Company continues its twin-track growth strategy to create a circular economy for battery metals with continued development of its battery metals exploration assets.”

Once full production starts there will (should) be 2 revenue streams from the lithium plant.

1. Gate fees.

8,0000 tonnes p.a. feedstock.

666.67 tonnes per month.

Quoted figures are Min - £1500/tonne. Max - £4500/tonne. Let’s assume £2500/tonne.

Revenue = £1,666,666 per month.

2 Black mass sales.

5000 tonnes p.a. expected from 8000 tonnes feedstock.

Quoted figures are £5000-£6000 tones.

5000 / 12 * £5000 = £2,083,333 per month revenue.

I am not saying the feedstock is available nor that the black-mass will be sold, but let’s assume that it will be, that equates to circa £3.7m per month in revenue.

Costs for plant cannot be huge as it’s already in ramp-up phase. Let’s say at an EXTREME case it’s £1m, jeez, look at all that lovely profit.

For those that can’t work it out, it could be in the region of £2.5-£2.7m per month.

(Allowing for the increased shares 2.5 bln once the recyclus deal completes, the mcap is approx £37m now.

Poss profit = £2.5m * 12 = £30m p.a.) I’m sure there are other expenses for mining assets etc and new plants, but this is gonna fly IMO.

If you dispute, please prove reasons why.

Why do PI’s always make his comment? - jeez.

Robin/Alex already have a huge stake - we’re just waiting for news - that’s it. Nothing else.

I’ve seen other stocks where the directors make some purchases and, guess what, it does jack sh*t for the SP. Nothing.

I just think the big seller(s) are gone.

Expecting news soon on recyclus/lead-acid full permit, lithium commissioning completion/off-takes etc.

Don’t know when, but I am hopeful of a good end to 2023 here.

My expectations are this will move quickly with good news.

4 month ramp-up. I’m not expecting news on that until it completes at end of Oct.

I hope we’ll get update in Lead-Acid full permit and recyclus deal before that though.

If they happen soon, we’ll be cooking IMO.

A couple of users tried to join the telegram group and the shieldy bot kicked you out. It’s there to block the spam bots.

Try again and post on here if you get a problem - someone will let me know and I’ll clear the ban record created by the bot.

Https: // t . me / +nFHvu2ieg4liYzdk

Remove all spaces

The cash burn is based on 2 factors.

1 - outgoings

2- income,

Let’s assume that £250k a month operating expenses. With no income, that would be the cash burn.

We know they are in a ramp-up phase and it’s 4 months. Personally, I believe this is true.

I have made an assumption that the ramp-up is steady and provided calcs on the gate fees alone which will be expect.

That post was on the 18th August - easy to find.

The main takeaway from that is the revenue from gate-fees should be around (the difference in the revenues are based on min and average feed-stock fees):

Month 1 - 80 * £1500 = £120k. 80 * £2500 = £200k.

Month 2 - 240 * £1500 = £360k. 240 * £2500 = £600k.

Month 3 - 400 * £1500 = £600k. 400 * £2500 = £1m.

Month 4 - 560 * £1500 = £840k. 560 * £2500 = £1.4m.

Note - this does NOT include revenue from black-mass.

So, in month 2, even on the lowest gate fees we’re generating more revenue than outgoings. So no more cash burn.

If you dispute the gate fees, you can google “gate fees for lithium batteries recycling” and you can see fees quoted of between £2 and £6 per kg. I did the same for black-mass, and the figures from google were $8700 tonne which supports the £5000-£6000/tonne from Robin.

People are just getting p****d off with the sellers in the background - the company is getting very close to full production and I don’t expect any RNS on this subject until that process has completed.

Which hardcore1’s post. The one where he said it was going to 3p end of the week. You’re being very selective in what post you want to use as being accurate. His record of predicting SP has been a joke.

No-one should predict short-term SP’s as there is too much which can impact it.

Look at the growth potential here and then sit down, listen to the Roast podcasts where they discuss the gate-fees and black-mass prices, and then get a calculator. (I’ve explained all that in prior posts but people either don’t understand or can’t be bothered).

Just whinging about the SP is silly IMO. Who knows why one or more individuals are off-loading (which it appears to be as the sells are large sleeps which appear to be worked by a broker).

Question. Have you done any due diligence on the company or just invested because you like the idea of recycling lithium batteries?

People have explained several things to you yet you still complain based on the SP. Short term SP movements are irrelevant unless you’re a trader. Investments are longer term.

So you think the numbers are rubbish.

What numbers?

The 8000 tonnes per year feedstock?

The 5000 tonnes per year black-mass?

The price of £1500-£4500 /tonne for feedstock (assumed average of £2500/tonne)?

The price of £5000-£6000/tonne for black-mass?

The IPO expected black-mass price of £3500/tonne?

If you think any of these are wrong, the please enlighten us. If you think they are correct, then everything else is just simple maths which anyone can do.

Saying figures are wrong but not having anything to back that statement could make someone look foolish.

I’ve posted my calcs both here and telegram and asked for anyone to correct them. Do you know what - no-one has criticised any of them. No-one has said I’ve made a mistake.

So I’m asking you to please let me know what I’ve got wrong.

@fazdog.

you were removed but not by me (keith).

you were wrong about the costs for the leinster exploration. if costs tm1 nothing to explore there as it is all funded by gbml. read the rns and learn about the company if you want to **** it off.

next, everything we’ve posted in the telegram group about expected figures is based on the roast podcast and we’ve clearly stated that this is reliant upon the ramp-up completing. this is a 4 month process (from the interview with robin on proactive i believe), and should completed end of october.

however, during that ramp-up phase they will be getting gate-fees for the feed stock and i’ve provided calculations on here based on expected revenues assuming a steady ramp-up over 4 months.

if you disagree, have the courtesy to explain where my calculations are wrong. all you’re doing is crying like a baby because the sp is down. markets are still crap for small-caps, but the fundamentals of the company are sound imo and this will make great gains going forward.

the problem is most pi’s don’t have the ability to value nor investigate companies and just go with the ramping in share groups. also, most pi’s think that markets are intelligent - they’re not, hence why warren buffett has made so much money by picking undervalued stocks. if markets (and by markets thats really investors) were valuing stocks correctly, there would be no bargains to make the gains he has done.

@Mafioso

I posted yesterday the calcs which show the revenue from gate-fees during the ramp-up. All based on figures from the roast podcast. I assume that you either didn’t see it or didn’t understand it if you think they will need to raise to cover costs.

Now, they may raise to fund expansion, but IMO any expansion will be funded by the huge profits they will throw off once in full operation.

Please explain how much profit you think they will generate in the first year - I assume you must have an estimate as you know how much the cash burn is.

Also, you clearly don’t understand the recyclus deal. They are buying the rest of recyclus with SHARES and not MONEY..

There is no dilution - yes, there are more share but the value of the company will be increased as TM1 will the own 100% of recyclus and not 48.5%.

Simple analogy:

There’s half a pizza and it’s 3 slices(shares). You own 1 slice (share).

Another half a pizza is added with 3 slices (shares).

So now there’s a whole pizza with 6 slices, but you still own 1 slice.

Has the size of your slice changed? No. That’s the same here - TM1 will be BIGGER, and that is founder by new shares.

Now, if they were raising funds (as per an exploration company), then that is dilution as they aren’t increasing the value as they aren’t buying anything. You hope that they make a discovery which then increased the value.

I was thinking about cash flow and the concerns that have been mentioned on here about the possibility of a fund-raise.

As we're in the ramp-up of the lithium plant and this will take 4 months to ramp up, let's assume it's a steady ramp up, i.e. end of month 1 we're at 25%, then 50% etc.

So, the average throughput in each month would be the mid point. (We start at 0, end at 25, so the average over that month would be 12.5%).

Month 1 - 0% - 25% (average would be 12.5%)

Month 2 - 25% - 50% (average would be 37.5%)

Month 3 - 50% - 75% (average would be 62.5%)

Month 4 - 75% - 100% (average would be 87.5%)

The average % is how much of the throughput which could be done, is being done for that month.

Next: what is the volume expected to be processed per day on a normal shift when fully operational.

Yearly volume 8000 tonnes.

Lets say 50 weeks * 5 days = 250 days.

8000/250 = 32 tonnes per day.

In month 1, they should process : 20 (days) * 32 tonnes * 0.125 = 80 tonnes.

In month 1, they should process : 20 (days) * 32 tonnes * 0.375 = 240 tonnes.

In month 1, they should process : 20 (days) * 32 tonnes * 0.625 = 400 tonnes.

In month 1, they should process : 20 (days) * 32 tonnes * 0.875 = 560 tonnes.

That equates to the feedstock, not black-mass.

Let's look at potential gate-fees to be paid on that feedstock.

Month 1 - 80 * £1500 = £120k. 80 * £2500 = £200k.

Month 2 - 240 * £1500 = £360k. 240 * £2500 = £600k.

Month 3 - 400 * £1500 = £600k. 400 * £2500 = £1m.

Month 4 - 560 * £1500 = £840k. 560 * £2500 = £1.4m.

The £1500 is the lowest price they gave for feedstock, and the £2500 is the average that I assumed (being slightly lower than the mid point on £1500 - £4500).

This does not cover black-mass sales.

I feel that is is unlikely that a raise will be needed.

Again, just my opinion and based on information from the Roast podcasts.

All part of the overall strategy of the company.

Won’t bring rewards just yet, but this sounds very encouraging.

@hardbinger

Take the link, copy/paste into a browser address bar, remove the spaces then press enter.

I just tried on my IPad in safari and worked fine.

Should open a page allowing you to join the group

Bounced this :-D