Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Why do PI’s always make his comment? - jeez.
Robin/Alex already have a huge stake - we’re just waiting for news - that’s it. Nothing else.
I’ve seen other stocks where the directors make some purchases and, guess what, it does jack sh*t for the SP. Nothing.
I just think the big seller(s) are gone.
Expecting news soon on recyclus/lead-acid full permit, lithium commissioning completion/off-takes etc.
Don’t know when, but I am hopeful of a good end to 2023 here.
My expectations are this will move quickly with good news.
4 month ramp-up. I’m not expecting news on that until it completes at end of Oct.
I hope we’ll get update in Lead-Acid full permit and recyclus deal before that though.
If they happen soon, we’ll be cooking IMO.
A couple of users tried to join the telegram group and the shieldy bot kicked you out. It’s there to block the spam bots.
Try again and post on here if you get a problem - someone will let me know and I’ll clear the ban record created by the bot.
Https: // t . me / +nFHvu2ieg4liYzdk
Remove all spaces
The cash burn is based on 2 factors.
1 - outgoings
2- income,
Let’s assume that £250k a month operating expenses. With no income, that would be the cash burn.
We know they are in a ramp-up phase and it’s 4 months. Personally, I believe this is true.
I have made an assumption that the ramp-up is steady and provided calcs on the gate fees alone which will be expect.
That post was on the 18th August - easy to find.
The main takeaway from that is the revenue from gate-fees should be around (the difference in the revenues are based on min and average feed-stock fees):
Month 1 - 80 * £1500 = £120k. 80 * £2500 = £200k.
Month 2 - 240 * £1500 = £360k. 240 * £2500 = £600k.
Month 3 - 400 * £1500 = £600k. 400 * £2500 = £1m.
Month 4 - 560 * £1500 = £840k. 560 * £2500 = £1.4m.
Note - this does NOT include revenue from black-mass.
So, in month 2, even on the lowest gate fees we’re generating more revenue than outgoings. So no more cash burn.
If you dispute the gate fees, you can google “gate fees for lithium batteries recycling” and you can see fees quoted of between £2 and £6 per kg. I did the same for black-mass, and the figures from google were $8700 tonne which supports the £5000-£6000/tonne from Robin.
People are just getting p****d off with the sellers in the background - the company is getting very close to full production and I don’t expect any RNS on this subject until that process has completed.
Which hardcore1’s post. The one where he said it was going to 3p end of the week. You’re being very selective in what post you want to use as being accurate. His record of predicting SP has been a joke.
No-one should predict short-term SP’s as there is too much which can impact it.
Look at the growth potential here and then sit down, listen to the Roast podcasts where they discuss the gate-fees and black-mass prices, and then get a calculator. (I’ve explained all that in prior posts but people either don’t understand or can’t be bothered).
Just whinging about the SP is silly IMO. Who knows why one or more individuals are off-loading (which it appears to be as the sells are large sleeps which appear to be worked by a broker).
Question. Have you done any due diligence on the company or just invested because you like the idea of recycling lithium batteries?
People have explained several things to you yet you still complain based on the SP. Short term SP movements are irrelevant unless you’re a trader. Investments are longer term.
So you think the numbers are rubbish.
What numbers?
The 8000 tonnes per year feedstock?
The 5000 tonnes per year black-mass?
The price of £1500-£4500 /tonne for feedstock (assumed average of £2500/tonne)?
The price of £5000-£6000/tonne for black-mass?
The IPO expected black-mass price of £3500/tonne?
If you think any of these are wrong, the please enlighten us. If you think they are correct, then everything else is just simple maths which anyone can do.
Saying figures are wrong but not having anything to back that statement could make someone look foolish.
I’ve posted my calcs both here and telegram and asked for anyone to correct them. Do you know what - no-one has criticised any of them. No-one has said I’ve made a mistake.
So I’m asking you to please let me know what I’ve got wrong.
@fazdog.
you were removed but not by me (keith).
you were wrong about the costs for the leinster exploration. if costs tm1 nothing to explore there as it is all funded by gbml. read the rns and learn about the company if you want to **** it off.
next, everything we’ve posted in the telegram group about expected figures is based on the roast podcast and we’ve clearly stated that this is reliant upon the ramp-up completing. this is a 4 month process (from the interview with robin on proactive i believe), and should completed end of october.
however, during that ramp-up phase they will be getting gate-fees for the feed stock and i’ve provided calculations on here based on expected revenues assuming a steady ramp-up over 4 months.
if you disagree, have the courtesy to explain where my calculations are wrong. all you’re doing is crying like a baby because the sp is down. markets are still crap for small-caps, but the fundamentals of the company are sound imo and this will make great gains going forward.
the problem is most pi’s don’t have the ability to value nor investigate companies and just go with the ramping in share groups. also, most pi’s think that markets are intelligent - they’re not, hence why warren buffett has made so much money by picking undervalued stocks. if markets (and by markets thats really investors) were valuing stocks correctly, there would be no bargains to make the gains he has done.
@Mafioso
I posted yesterday the calcs which show the revenue from gate-fees during the ramp-up. All based on figures from the roast podcast. I assume that you either didn’t see it or didn’t understand it if you think they will need to raise to cover costs.
Now, they may raise to fund expansion, but IMO any expansion will be funded by the huge profits they will throw off once in full operation.
Please explain how much profit you think they will generate in the first year - I assume you must have an estimate as you know how much the cash burn is.
Also, you clearly don’t understand the recyclus deal. They are buying the rest of recyclus with SHARES and not MONEY..
There is no dilution - yes, there are more share but the value of the company will be increased as TM1 will the own 100% of recyclus and not 48.5%.
Simple analogy:
There’s half a pizza and it’s 3 slices(shares). You own 1 slice (share).
Another half a pizza is added with 3 slices (shares).
So now there’s a whole pizza with 6 slices, but you still own 1 slice.
Has the size of your slice changed? No. That’s the same here - TM1 will be BIGGER, and that is founder by new shares.
Now, if they were raising funds (as per an exploration company), then that is dilution as they aren’t increasing the value as they aren’t buying anything. You hope that they make a discovery which then increased the value.
I was thinking about cash flow and the concerns that have been mentioned on here about the possibility of a fund-raise.
As we're in the ramp-up of the lithium plant and this will take 4 months to ramp up, let's assume it's a steady ramp up, i.e. end of month 1 we're at 25%, then 50% etc.
So, the average throughput in each month would be the mid point. (We start at 0, end at 25, so the average over that month would be 12.5%).
Month 1 - 0% - 25% (average would be 12.5%)
Month 2 - 25% - 50% (average would be 37.5%)
Month 3 - 50% - 75% (average would be 62.5%)
Month 4 - 75% - 100% (average would be 87.5%)
The average % is how much of the throughput which could be done, is being done for that month.
Next: what is the volume expected to be processed per day on a normal shift when fully operational.
Yearly volume 8000 tonnes.
Lets say 50 weeks * 5 days = 250 days.
8000/250 = 32 tonnes per day.
In month 1, they should process : 20 (days) * 32 tonnes * 0.125 = 80 tonnes.
In month 1, they should process : 20 (days) * 32 tonnes * 0.375 = 240 tonnes.
In month 1, they should process : 20 (days) * 32 tonnes * 0.625 = 400 tonnes.
In month 1, they should process : 20 (days) * 32 tonnes * 0.875 = 560 tonnes.
That equates to the feedstock, not black-mass.
Let's look at potential gate-fees to be paid on that feedstock.
Month 1 - 80 * £1500 = £120k. 80 * £2500 = £200k.
Month 2 - 240 * £1500 = £360k. 240 * £2500 = £600k.
Month 3 - 400 * £1500 = £600k. 400 * £2500 = £1m.
Month 4 - 560 * £1500 = £840k. 560 * £2500 = £1.4m.
The £1500 is the lowest price they gave for feedstock, and the £2500 is the average that I assumed (being slightly lower than the mid point on £1500 - £4500).
This does not cover black-mass sales.
I feel that is is unlikely that a raise will be needed.
Again, just my opinion and based on information from the Roast podcasts.
All part of the overall strategy of the company.
Won’t bring rewards just yet, but this sounds very encouraging.
@hardbinger
Take the link, copy/paste into a browser address bar, remove the spaces then press enter.
I just tried on my IPad in safari and worked fine.
Should open a page allowing you to join the group
Bounced this :-D
No, the share price has not moved.
What you are seeing is the LAST TRADE PRICE.
AndyOz explained this earlier to you.
BID - what the MM’s will pay you. (Roughly, but they all set different prices).
ASK - what the MM’s will charge you (As above).
MID-PRICE - this is usually the SP and is the MID pint between BID/ASK.
Last traded price. Will usually be between the BID/ASK, but can be higher or lower if a large or delayed trade gets printed,
Read the 18:01 post before the 18:02 post.
So expected turnover, assuming £2500 average gate-fee/tonne and £5500/tonne black-mass is: £20.8m + £27.5 : roughly £48m.
Next is profit (which is the important thing to value companies - PE ratios).
The gate-fee should be viewed as pure profit (as it's accepted it won't always be paid). The change in black-mass price from £3500 to £5500 (mid-point) should be viewed as profit. I'll assume an operational 30% profit on the black-mass at £3500/tonne (the 70% will be to cover all the costs of operating the plant, wages, etc.)
Gate-fees : £2500/tonne = £20.8m Black-mass price increase : (£5500 - £3500 = £2000/tonne increase) * 5000 tonnes = £10m Black-mass : 5000 tonnes * 3500/tonne * 30% = £5.3m.
Potential gross profit of £36m.
From this potential profit, I have no idea how much we be invested back into new plants, mines etc. Also, the black-mass price is volatile as it's based on the market process, so it could go down, although they don't see that as a short term issue.
Let's be cautious and say we get £25m profit from the plant in a full year.
To get a fair company valuation, take the earnings (profit) and multiply that by PE ration of 20 (which is reasonable for a growth company), the mcap should be circa £500m. That equates to 20p/share. Even if we went in at a very conservative PE of 10, that's £250m mcap so 10p/share.
Bear in mind, this is not factoring in anything for mines, lead-acid not battery boxes.
It's not factoring in increasing the throughput of plant 1 for more than 1 shift.
It's not factoring in adding more plants.
It's not factoring in the mobile units for the future.
Again, these are just my figures based on what I've understood from the roast podcast.
To help investors/new investors, I've created this post to explain the structure of the company and the potential revenues/profits.
Important : this is only my understanding and happy for anyone to point out any errors.
First, I believe TM1 is the group holding company which is listed on the main market (not AIM), and there are subsidiary companies for the various other activities like recyclus, Halo boxes, mines etc. Recyclus is 48.5% owned by TM1 and the balance is owned by Robin/Alex and some other people. There was an RNS dated 19th Oct 2022 which details the plans for TM1 to acquire the remainder of Recyclus via issuing another 921m shares. Assuming there are 2500m shares (after the recyclus deal completes), then at 2p/share, this would value the company at £50m (simple maths).
There are currently just over 1,500m shares issued for TM1 and with the additional 921m, that will take us to 2,500m (near enough to not worry about). At 2p per share, this would value TM1 at £30m or £50m (post the recyclus deal). I have heard that they are about to start the process to complete the aquisition again shortly - no idea how long that will take.
I don't believe any of the above is contentious nor challenged.
Next, there are four main activities for TM1: Mining assets. Lithium recycling plant(s). Lead-acid recycling plant(s). Halo boxes (safe transport of lithium batteries).
I will only focus on the revenues/profits from the lithium plant. It's known that they are in a ramp-up phase on the lithium plant and that may take another few weeks/couple of months. Frustrating, but it's going well from what they've said so far. It's also known that they will process roughly 8,300 tonnes of feedstock in a year on a single shift of 40 hours/week. The EA permit allows 22,000 tonnes p.a. although this could be varied by applying for a license variation. They want to expand that to multiple shifts (I'm assuming at least 24hrs x 5 days) but that would need the variation. This would allow 25,000 tonnes p.a. (24 x 7 would allow 33,000 tonnes of feedstock).
So revenues (figures are from the Roast interview https://www.thesundayroast.net/podcast/episode/506a1bf4/s5-ep42-sunday-roast-featuring-technology-minerals-lsetm1-tm1-genf-vrs-chll-prem-cel-ciz-bsfa ).
Bear in mind that they know the gate-fees are likely to diminish and the disappear in the future, so the plant must be profitable without gate-fees.
Gate-fees (feedstock) 8300 tonnes p.a. Price range is £1500/tonne to £4500/tonne. This equate to revenue between £12.5m and £37.4m Assume £2500 as an average of the gate-fee. This equates to £20.8m gate fees.
Black mass - 5000 tonnes p.a. Price at IPO was £3500/tonne. Current price is £5000-£6000/tonne. Let's assume an average price of £5500/tonne.
£3500/tonne revenue £17.5m £5500/tonne revenue £27.5m.
So expected turnover, assuming £2500 average gate-fee/tonne and £5500/tonne black-mass is: £20.8m + £27.5 :
From my understanding they delayed pushing ahead due to lack of funds. I believe that once they are generating revenues from the lithium plant this will be moved forward. A new prospectus may need to be sent to the FCA, but it should all be a formality.
This will be funded by issuing 921m new shares, so although the size of the company will grow (as 100% of recyclus will be owned by TM1), and the mcap will increase, there will be more shares so the SP shouldn’t change much due to the deal.
However, having full ownership of recyclus will change sentiment I feel and that could cause an increase to the SP.
Have to wait and see, but this is a long term growth project. You won’t get a major re-rate on one piece of news (for example, like SNG getting a covid product approved). However, once revenues come through and people wake up to the huge profits from TM1 the price will rise.
Expected profits from 1 shift (based on gate fees and black mass sales)will be circa £20m (or higher).
Mcap (after extra 921m shares issued) is under £50m.
PE ratios for growth companies should be about 20 - 25 times profits.
BTW, that excludes anything from the lead-acid plant, Halo boxes, mines etc.
Anyone selling today is an idiot who understands nothing about companies IMO.
@NewInvestments
They have multiple trading companies and TM1 is the group (parent) company.
Currently Tm1 owns 48.5% of recyclus and, after the acquisition completes, it will be a 100% owned subsidiary, like the mining companies etc.
This is perfectly normal business practice and a nothing issue.