The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
I was checking the sentinel hub and when I selected Sentinel-1 I can see what looks to me as a growing flare between 1st Nov and today
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?source=S1-AWS-IW-VVVH&lat=45.96472422868363&lng=54.203996656578965&zoom=15&preset=ENHANCED-VISUALIZATION&layers=VV,VV,VV&maxcc=68&gain=1.0&gamma=1.0&time=2020-05-01%7C2020-11-17&atmFilter=&showDates=false
I'd be honest that if we'd not had the vaccine news and the great urgency around it ( literally life and death) for rapid distribution I would not be so bullish; I would be optimistic but the need for logistical know how has never been greater than it is now. Dare I say at a premium. If this company fails then it could translate into Covid-19 fatalities I can't think of a better reason therefore that this will succeed.
Had the vaccine news been after the 9th Dec then the risk would have been far greater than it is at this moment
I mean you no ill will and wish you a good evening
A RNS to make me happy
I was only reading the news about 100 Million Vaccines needing distributing in the largest ever logistical operation in the history of ...logistics bigger than D-Day Did TF miss the news ? I think it was carried by every news agency Worldwide
I would imagine that would be good news for those in the business of .....logistics ??
Oh and what is this I see before me from 12th Oct
Strong performance against the backdrop of Covid-19, with the business benefiting from increasing demand for high quality logistics and transport services
· Revenues of £416.5m broadly in line with the same period last year reflecting resilience of business model
· Increased profitability from existing and new customers replacing revenue from exited loss-making contracts
· Business returned to profitability reflecting progress on turnaround plan with further benefits expected to come
· Underlying EBITDA for the period of £16.6m (2019: loss of £6.3m) and underlying EBIT of £10.6m (2019: loss of £11.6m
One thing I can sniff is a short
There are 100 million more reasons to consider this share than there were last week; 100 Million vaccines need distributing.
I guess a high % of people on this board already did; there are 100 Million Vaccines to be distributed and that's on top of the last trading update which was very positive.
Eddie Stobart says GreenWhiteStar Acquisitions to generate £33mln full-year earnings
The firm benefitted from increasing demand for logistics and transport services during the pandemic
Eddie Stobart Logistics PLC - Eddie Stobart says GreenWhiteStar Acquisitions to generate £33mln full-year earnings
Eddie Stobart Logistics PLC (LON:ESL) said its 49%-owned associate GreenWhiteStar Acquisitions (GWSA) benefitted from increasing demand for logistics and transport services during the pandemic.
In the year to November 30 it is expected to generate underlying earnings (EBITDA) of £33mln.
Morning all holders
It's worth considering that this was an appraisal well to determine the size of the Kirkam find; by definition we need to know the limits and so this well was located at a point towards what was thought to be the edge and it came in positive. It was not meant to find the "sweet spot" for optimal testing.
Traders apart if you check the graphic below you can see the different grading so that it is no surprise they are drilling the sidetrack which has been denoted on the graphic all year. Cadeby likewise ; yes it's a touch disappointing but it's not ( going by the grading ) so I certainly wouldn't be downbeat it helps prove their seismic is spot on.
https://reabold.com/projects/west-newton-uk-onshore/
Now if there are some Rockhoppper Sealion "Vets" on here you may remember that not all the Sealion drills had "perfect reservoir characteristics" as they too went to prove the outer limits of their find.
Also a word about the lack of testing on the original wells; those that read the RNS will point out that the original drill permit from the EA was for GAS testing only and so they weren't permitted ( literally) to test it at the time. Permits are in place of course now and we eagerly await results.
GLAH
I was scratching my head as to why this had dropped from the 70-80p range especially on the back of good RNS after good RNS then the penny dropped ( literally) that those getting options knew they could sell out some of their existing holdings about 66p to pocket a nice little earner in options.
We dont have high volumes of trades so that would explain the steepness of the decline but now the options are out there expect a climb back to the 70s
I was expecting some mask news by now; clearly it's a short term project but it will bring in useful cash flow until March ; I suspect we'll still be asked to wear masks on planes with all the vaccine news out there we can start to count down the clock.
Really appreciate those links jcb-55 from 1st Nov and it looks to me the flaring was present for at least a month; got to be encouraging A8 and 801 ...and A5 flowing could it really happen ?!? in the same RNS!
The Farm-out 2.0 needs to complete by December 31st from memory and although a lot of people will be nervous of daily fluctuations the news of multiple covid vaccines is settling a lot of nerves . We're just at breakeven as we stand so we should consider where will the oil price go from here or at least where is likely to be in 3 years time as it will take that long to get to first oil.
Add to the the Arbitration is approaching 9 months late which is ridiculous however covid-19 cant be used as an excuse come June / July 2021 and considering we were due the outcome of the case only a few weeks after the outbreak it's hard to understand how they have stalled so successfully.. for 8 months already. Perhaps the silver lining is the price of oil will start rising between now and the summer which may motivate Italy to settle before we get to $60 which would substantially increase the size of the award imho.
We should be at 15p on Farm Out signing and with Arbitration...add another 18p based on circa £100 Million payout
Despite covid it's well worth considering that every country in World will increase it's population this year even those at war
correct me if I'm wrong by all means ; each person born today needs oil to be flowing
We're hitting a lot of milestone dates that tie in with possible NDA this coming week and some conjecture as to when DLA piper instructed; 60 days is considered a "normal" time to prepare legal documentation and we know they had been instructed before Sept 30th but presumably not before Sept 18th. I would stick with a backstop of 1st December but there really has to be a realistic chance the FSP is nearing completion. I predict this coming Wednesday 18th November at 12pm.
Interesting to look back at the earlier WN drills that announced after 40 days; we'll be around 40 days now so we can start expecting news from Monday. Whether we'll get updates on Kirkham first and then Cadeby later is an unknown but FOMO must be growing. I've held and added for a year looking for minimum 2p a share on the current program. We're looking at 100Mboe net to Reabold with a breakeven around $17/18 so a very substantial asset. Good Luck all holders
Greetings All
We've know we've been in the end game for some months now and as we approach the final phase two milestones have been reached; it's now 60 days since the flanks approval and 30 since the director roles changes this ties in well with a RNS tomorrow to announce the deal based on 60 /30 days NDA ; DLA piper are likely to need 30-60 days to complete legal work. I will go for Real Deal RNS tomorrow 7am but I'd also say the backstop would be be December 1st based on 6-0 days after the latest possible date of their appointment ( Sept 30th). I have a feeling it's cash + shares as otherwise I see no reason to change CEO for a months; my guess is around £1.5 Billion 55-60p + 25% of new entity with free carry. Here's hoping!
We've hit a all time low on successful flow of three deeps!?
The way the RNS was worded was astonishingly negative.
Reasons to be cheerful Quarter 3
141 work-over to be completed
151 to be brought into production
South Yelemes production license awarded
These 3 events are more than likely to add 1000 bopd based on 350/350/300 estimate and all at international prices.
Deeps
Very important distinction in the RNS between A5 > flowing but not at rates previously seen (3000bopd) and A6 and A8 not yet flowing at commercial rates . I take from that A5 is flowing at commercial rates.
Also consider the amount of drilling mud to be recovered in A6 and A8 this will take time but the fact the Acid is on site and has resulted in oil flow means the plan has not entirely failed.
I expect a flood of good news in the next month.
Goldman Sachs estimate $49 oil price for year end so looks like we will be profitable even without any of the above
and yet at all time low ????
Sale of the century imo
The last RNS really was a historical Clivism compilation and told us nothing of progress ( or lack of it) since May. The lockdown has eased significantly since then although there is no definitive information as to whether it's arrived on site or not however the crew wont be using it until A5 ( 5 is for years to flow) has it's latest band aid
The statement "Our G50 rig is now in position to replace a broken link " doesnt tell us that the replacement link is at site or not if is we might have also had to wait to allow for a crew change over and maybe 2 weeks downtime or they could have started work on this on Friday and be flowing by the time of the next Quarterly update due ...this week.
On the positives ; Caspian always find oil no dusters that I can remember in 5 years; on land cheap labour low breakeven and no leaks! this is important the company are watertight with news which is something.
The forward plan is inexpensive Acid washes then apply for export license for the field
current production between 1700-2000 aint bad for a market cap of £65 Million and with the long heralded deeps this could very easily be 10,000 bopd within months albeit only 2000 at international prices.
The overwhelming majority ( I estimate 90%) of expenditure has already been made for the deeps with the remaining 10% going to be the acid washes and cleanups.
56kms square is big and like Benny Hill would say " I like em big"
21st May Hungary reopened all of its border crossings with Romania
No reason for any further delays to Parta testing; it wont be long now
June is looking good
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/hungary-reopens-border-with-romania/ar-BB14qsCm
It looks like most of us are clinging to the hope that we've still got Taribani covering the 1% of B12 which makes some sense until you consider the Gas production at Mtsarekhevi (MGC) ; Frontera is selling MGC produced Natural gas through Georgia’s gas distribution grid. This must make up additional % however if we are talking about Production v Exploration it may actually mean that both Taribani and MGC are considered production areas and we've effectively lost 99% of the area not in production. As to the reasons why the arbitration GOGC may have been fed up with the slow progress but I wonder if the real target was sunk costs which need to be absorbed before they receive payment on the PSA; by removing the 99% any money that was spent there may now be discounted in the sunk cost equations which may mean $100Million + of the $500 Million spent. That we ceased production was in my belief to stop Hope/ Outriders snatching that money before the asset was moved and the before new production licenses can be drawn up under the new offshoot the arbitration case had to be concluded. As stated here the Arbitration is made of many rulings; GOGC have won the overwhelming majority but critically Frontera also won some also hence the need for Arbitration in the first case. The mineral license tax issue is interesting as if Frontera now go bust then the GOGC wont get a bean so it's in their interest to allow Frontera to progress with development if only in order to redeem the tax and then start paying into the PSA. The remainder of B12 is now highly prospective acreage that can be farmed out again by GOGC. If Frontera now fail it will knock Georgia's business rating form 44th in the World to sub corruption category 179th place. How could anyone even consider investing in country that want you to spend the money to find oil and gas and then snatch it back when you find it; that is what has happened here make no mistake. Frontera had to wait years for GOGC to allow them to sell MSG gas and then at only a restricted volume ( I suspect this where we won in Arbitration). It's painful to watch this unfold; it reads like a Dallas V Barnes plot only we've no idea who JR is. I sincerely hope we come through this ; there are some notable posters who have been absent of late and I will keep reading these boards hopeful that more light can be shone on the Arbitration findings in due course. I can't see this uncertainty lasting beyond June so lets hope for the best!
Some thoughts for the day; the SP was rocketing without a holding RNS; who was buying ? were they Chinese did that need clarifying ? were they buying up shares cheaply to effectively lower the amount they need to pay for the asset which was due to increase in size circa 10-15 times once flanks were approved; EUA knew the approval may take months allowing a stalking horse ( and it's many subsidiaries) to buy up in relatively small chunks to keep the holding RNS off. By suspending we prevented that happening and taking the calculated gamble that flanks approval wouldn't take 6 months ( forcing de-list) . NOMAD didn't agree there was a regulatory reason not to recommence trading ; the suspension was tactical not regulatory. Add to that the market instability would have allowed our buyer to amass more cheaper shares lower the total amount need to purchase the asset. If suspension is lifted before the end of May without flanks approval I'm wrong it we get flanks approval then suspension lifted I might just be right.
I've held since 2014; each time watching the spikes fade until this one; this one had legs but the move from 4 -7p was very quick and looked (to me at least) like the situation described above.
Finally I hold FRR Shares and have been through a delist; that was a shocker that is not yet over. I doubt very much it will happen here but it could, remember you still own shares if it does and this like FRR has a high % of director skin in the game.
How the pendulum swings and today Tarzan was swinging it out of most of our comprehensions reach.
Ombrina Mare arbitration now takes on a new guise if it comes in circa £200 with our current market cap even £100 Million and how much might we need to pay PMO for their 30% back ?
There are many twists and turns but I'm holding mainly due to the potential outcome of Ombrina Mare arbitration transforming the current SP but also the potential it has to be used in the Financing; could we even buy PMO out ? ( cheaply) or will their interest simply lapse if they walk away?
First oil is 3.5 years after sanction so selling today based on today's price or even a year out isn't relevant.
Russia saying it can survive 2/3 years at this price may be true but I can survive on Milk and Bread but I don't and nor will they especially as there is a transition of power and they need to keep spending.
Anyone heard from Malcy ? no blog on a day like today?
Euro 230 Million / £200 Million will nicely with our Market Cap circa £55Million if we get just half that we'll be hitting the giddy heights of 36p just imagine.
Looks like there will be a storm to weather but there is another meeting mid march scheduled between OPEC and Russia ( during the Premier court sanction) . The interesting pieces I read today were that OPEC had over complied (130%) with their production cut and Russia didn't anyway. Russia's view may be that the World is overreacting to Covid-19 and the drop in demand has already happened and wont deepen as China is over the worst of it. Covid has so far infected if 80,000 of the 1,408,526,449 population Chinese; today the new cases in China where 25% of the World's Population was 9th in the global list behind the Netherlands where 0.22% of the World's Population lives. I think Russia has a point in not succumbing to the hysteria. Clearly the picture will be clearer in 10 days time.
As for a price war I can't see it really as it's in nobody's interest.
It's been a hard few weeks watching this slide but don't give up in what has to be the darkest hour before the dawn.
We are not floundering below the waves we have circa $35Million (post Med sale) in the bank and no debt so no matter what we're not sinking just yet, with our cash in the bank we can weather the storm.
We are days away from Ombrina Mare arbitration decision and all eyes of Premier court sanction for the 17 March after that our Navitas farm in should be signed.
The Ombrina Mare could include loss of revenues as well as sunk costs so this alone could keep the wolf from the door for years to come.
Having said all that from reading this board there really is a high degree of alarm at the level of BOD pay and if we don't get the farm out signed this quarter or Ombrina Mare then I can't see how the current pay is sustainable let alone deserved.
I sincerely hope Russia will come to a gentleman's agreement with OPEC this week and given the sharp decline on Friday I think it's more likely than not. Short to mid term we can rest assured that far fewer new exploration wells are going to be drilled globally and drilling on the stock market becomes the cheapest way for gain resources.
I hold 2 other Oilies both on land with lower costs but we are shallow water and still cheaper the shale so we wont be the first or second casualty of the price war
Good luck for the week ahead.
If the workers have gone on strike and need the state oil company to come in to avoid an environmental catastrophe then this is very very concerning as to me this would be surely be a breach of our license agreement for block 12. It sounds an absolute disaster so close to the end of court proceedings. Without workers our income is 0...and here I was hoping for a Zaza Christmas message!