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$22.65 premium for 3% higher grade = $7.55 per % 66.6% FE = 4.6% above 62% benchmark = $34.73 + $75.95 = $110.68/ton Stage 1 Opex costs reduced to $24/ton (top end estimate) = $86.68/ton profit potential 12Mtpa = $1,040,160,000 9 years = $9,361,440,000 Stage 2 Opex costs reduced to $22/ton (my estimate) = $88.68/ton profit potential 30Mtpa = $2,660,400,000 21 years = $55,868,400,000 Total profit over 30 year life = $65,229,840,000 ($65.3 billion) Less $4.4billion capex = $60,829,840,000 ZIOC share = $30,414,920,000 (�22.8 billion) 278,780,000 shares = �81.82 per share And remember this is only the 770 MT proven so far, we have further 2.1 BT probable and 6.9 BT resource. How much will a buyer be willing to pay to secure such vast future profits?

Indeed, the talk of the $2bn owened to Glen and Trafigura is trivial compared to what they owe China. China is moving to secure future profits from the RoC natural resources and will use this as leverage to get the best deal and advance the projects as quickly as possible.

Exactly, buy and hold. There will be very little warning of a takeover which is when the mega returns will be made. Of course news will leak on advancements of key catalysts leading to any takeover (port/SEZ, debt etc), unless as part of RoC debt restructuring they sell part of their 10% stake for a set amount. This will then lock in a clear market value of our asset so may re-rate in the blink of an eye. There is a very real risk of being out and watching on the sidelines.

Good rebound, no real changes for now as we always knew the wax was a problem and they already had a long term solution planned. Erskine not the future and we have enough cash in the bank to see us through to when BKP completes in Q3. Still vastly underpriced even if Erskine never comes back online (which of course it will!)

My view is that there will be more detailed released later, but the closing statements made at the end of the visit indicate more work is required before they will submit a proposal to the executive board. As stated below, China is pushing forward with their rollout in Africa which will compete with the World Bank et al. so should be conducted in tandem. ZIOC is a key piece of the puzzle, but we're talking about the economic future of an entire country here, so quite complicated with lots of interwound interests.

Still waiting for RoC to do a bit more work on their part, before the IMF can put forward a proposal, but they have made significant progress with this to date. Remeber that it was the RoC that initiated this request for help last year as their debt levels were unsustainable. There was a government crack down on corruption, with top officials arrested and new unit created within their judiciary to tackle this moving forward. They are also arranging for a larger share of profits from oil resources to go to the state. The IMF deal is for the wider economy and debt levels. Dont forget that Lazard's are involved here, along with EXIM bank and plenty of high profile finance houses looking to do some deals. Depends whether they can scrape out a deal with these to fund the SEZ first.

�Staffs understands that the authorities will continue to work in the coming weeks on implementing their comprehensive strategy to restore debt sustainability and ensure full program financing. Once compliance with all relevant IMF policies has been established, an arrangement to support Congo�s economic program would be proposed for the IMF Executive Board's consideration.�

Ok, so lets link this back to the rumoured 20% free carry, so �600m would generate a special dividend of �2.15 per share. Stage 2 production would generate $2,660,400,000 per year. 20% share = $532,080,000 x 0.75 exchange rate = �399,060,000 = annual dividend of �1.43 per share x 15 P/E = �21.47 per share. Would work out very well in the long term.

Still lots to play for here. With RoC owing millions to Glencore and them wanting to retain majority control, they would need atleast 5% of the rumoured RoC 10% that could be sold to Rio. If Rio take the full 10% as part of debt restructring, that leaves Glen vulnerable to being bumped to minority owner if ZIOC proceed to sell their full stake to Rio, which would give them 55% control. There are so many possibilities of how this will play out, but one thing for sure is the ZIOC asset is the carrot being dangled to make this all work.

Just to caveat this, unless thats for ZIOC to retain a free carry equity share in the project. Then, maybe...

I'll say it again, I cant see this being sold for such a ridiculously small amount (�600m) to Rio. Based on the currently proven 770 MT this will generate $2.6bn PROFIT per year This is based on 50% of the asset being proven up. There is still 2.1BT probable reserve which would nearly triple this figure and have us producing nearly $8bn per year.

Agreed, takes time to realise value. Good news on the pipeline, if its suitable for use of course...

Just another big buyer I'd say. The Hardy's have �20million invested so fully expect more big players to join the fun!

Could be the rumoured news that the IMF, World Bank and other intereted parties are due to announce their plans for the Congo revolving around financing the SEZ (new port) and possible Rio involvement...

The so called "wild" valuations are helped along by the fact there has never been any dilution of shareholders, so there are only approx 278million shares in issue (compared with the many BILLIONS you normally see). ZIOC also have an asset that could generate over $500 BILLION profit if the entire resource is exoploited, so when you look at past purchases and future value, a buyer could easily hand over $3-$5billion for this, which shared over the tiny number of shares in issue makes for absolutely massive gains. We dont need the share price to go anywhere. When an offer comes we take the cash. Simple.

auction extended until 12:10

Depends how you want to calculate it. I've got it between �4 and �8 per share based on BKR and Erskine production only. Lower end more likely imo. Could increase to �5 simply from additional production from R3. Then you have other prospects too. Excludes the 34m in the bank so plenty to play for here. Got to be the safest share with guaranteed growth in share price.

Remember the potential value of the prize here. �81 per share profit over life of mine (current market conditions) �11.95 per share possible takeover price (based on Chinalco offering for Simandou in 2016) Even this astronomical valuation leaves plenty of profit on the table for the new owners. A low-ball offer of �4-�5 even more so and would be less than �1.5bn which is small change for some of these mining majors.

You say by June, but there is a hell of a lot going on in the Congo right now, primarily around IMF and debt refinacing (which may see Rio take a stake) and how these new debt deals will push forward with the SEZ and new port. I believe the IMF are due to make some sort of announcement this week. We also then have Cold pelletisation which impacts on energy consumption, so until we know whether this is viable we cant agree power deals. This is one of the key components not finalised and needed to help realise value here. Port is number 1 as that unlocks the immense value here, and we could hear news within days. Unfortunately this is complicated and we're in Africa, so could take longer than anticipated.

You say by June, but there is a hell of a lot going on in the Congo right now, primarily around IMF and debt refinacing (which may see Rio take a stake) and how these new debt deals will push forward with the SEZ and new port. I believe the IMF are due to make some sort of announcement this week. We also then have Cold pelletisation which impacts on energy consumption, so until we know whether this is viable we cant agree power deals. This is one of the key components not finalised and needed to help realise value here. Port is number 1 as that unlocks the immense value here, and we could hear news within days. Unfortunately this is complicated and we're in Africa, so could take longer than anticipated.