Member Info for Scot126

22:48

Hi Facevalue01 - thankfully ALL of PANR's acreage is located on State of Alaska land, not Federal land. Head to the PANR website and look at the various maps of the North Slope of Alaska. You'll see that Willow and parts of Pikka/Horseshoe are located on Federal land whereas PANR's acreage is located about 20 miles south of Deadhorse, wholly on SoA land.

The attempts to limit further development in the NPRA and ANWR may very well be subject to the vagaries of American politics and its legal system. The good news for PANR is that its acreage is not included in any of the areas specified in the article. Good stuff.

Please see below a link to Chris Wright's confirmation hearing before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources today. Head to 2:21:45 and listen until 2:23:12 to hear the exchange between Senator Murkowski of Alaska and Trump's nominee for Secretary of Energy. I put it to all forum members that Chris Wright already knows President-elect Trump's views on whether the gasline will be going ahead or not. He's clearly across his brief and is quick to mention how advantageous Alaska's location is when it comes to supplying Asian allies with LNG.

There's now clear momentum behind the Alaska LNG project. No question about it. All else being equal, the market should discount this news and mark the value of PANR's equity up.

hTTps://www.youtube.com/live/0cxOu2Oy4nA?si=6NSSqHYq51DKNND8

HTTps://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2025/01/15/japan-seeks-long-term-lng-supply-from-alaska-as-44-billion-project-moves-forward/

H/t to Bought in for the article above.

This is EXACTLY what was hoped for from Dunleavy's UAE trip. And it is EXACTLY the next step which was required to advance the Alaska LNG project. Each step towards construction of the pipeline derisks PANR's investment case. All else being equal, the market *should* respond by marking the PANR SP up.

In addition, we all know Trump is a showman along with being transactional in nature. There is an established narrative to incoming Presidential administrations which sees them make major policy announcements and sign a flurry of executive orders within the first 100 days of being in office.

The jungle drums on the Alaska LNG project are now so loud, with all parties coming together and pointing in the same direction such that I would be amazed if "The Trump Gasline" wasn't one of the top rank of announcements within those first 100 days.

Trump loves playing to his base. "Drill, baby, drill" and "US energy dominance" were key themes during his presidential campaign. An announcement of a presidential green light being given to a $44bn LNG export project is exactly the type of high profile event which Trump can serve up to his base.

IMHO we're now reaching the stage, or are perhaps we're already in it (?), where this long-mooted Alaskan LNG project is almost certain to be constructed. A presidential green light amongst great fanfare in the Oval Office would a meaningful and material de-risking event for PANR shareholders. It's a strong Buy for me going into the Trump inauguration on Monday.

10:23 and 10:27

Hi schlemiel - utter nonsense. Unlike you, I've read the Canaccord sector note. It is simply a function of a fixed process when an analyst covers a sector where some of the most impactful variables on fair value are the POO, $:£ exchange rate and the long term risk-free return on capital.

The small change in headline TP (from 90p to 85p) is a result of the analyst amending some of those key inputs for his first sector note of 2025. It's pretty standard for sector analysts to publish a report in the first few weeks of the calendar year to set out their views for the year ahead.

It would be an odd approach from an O&G sector analyst to downgrade/upgrade PANR for a stock-specific reason in advance of the release of the lab results from Megrez-1. If the company doesn't yet know the results of that analysis (absence of RNS) then there's no way an experienced analyst like Charlie Sharp would take a view prior to empirical data being released.

Stop making stuff up, schlemiel. Investing in the equity markets is difficult enough without posters like you publishing made up nonsense on public bulletin boards. Do better.

I strongly urge forum members to listen to this podcast featuring Glenfarne founder Brendan Duval. It will give you a pretty comprehensive overview of Glenfarne's role in developing LNG export infrastructure. For those who have dealt with Macquarie personnel over the years, you can tell Brendan has been through their machine and no doubt passed with flying colours.

hTTps://youtu.be/9ncgZpwMYHU?si=vLJtYgenp5ITkTYl

The interviewer did an excellent job too, fwiw. A very easy listen, full of facts, no wandering off into unnecessary cul-de-sacs, genuinely informative. This will both educate and reassure folk who are trying to imagine what role Glenfarne will play in the Alaskan LNG project. Impressive fella.

Brom - check the Alaska Landmine Twitter account. He got the scoop from a source and Glenfarne then confirmed formally. Note the quotation marks.

Still waiting for your answer about how 88E is going to fund the next tranche of cash due to be paid by them into the Namibian project? Longhorn is just about covering G&A but unless 88E sources more capital from shareholders and/or a future partner then how is the company going to continue? You are commenting on PANR very regularly these days, Brom, but I'm not seeing the same rigorous approach to fact-checking 88E's forum? Hmmmm......there must be a reason for this......can't quite put my finger on it. 27,500+ posts and counting, Brom. What a combination of stamina and brass neck!

17:09

Ayecuramba - a few fact checks for you. Eek! You're a professed shareholder in PANR and you appear to know even less about that company than you do your investment in 88E....if that's at all possible?!

No, PANR does not have "an exclusive 2 year period for gas supply into the proposed pipeline." That is false. Please read (no doubt for the first time) the PANR RNS dated 5/6/24 to educate yourself about the AGDC agreement with PANR.

Next fact check. You posted, "...there is no reason in the future 88E could potentially benefit, no matter what other may posit as ‘facts'." I know of a brilliant but really, really simple "reason" why this is not true. Unless you find a benevolent charity with more money than sense, Ayecuramba, there is no O&G investor in the world who will drill a well at Project Phoenix in order to sell the gas alone. Unless that same well can produce hydrocarbon liquids commercially, not a single cubic foot of 88E's natural gas will ever be sold into the proposed gasline.

Ayecuramba - please stop misinforming the members of this forum for your own financial benefit. I appreciate you are clearly hurting due to your long 88E position but disseminating obvious falsehoods is no way to conduct yourself. You really must try to be a better person in 2025.

15:58

Hi Rayvon68 - I agree. It does indeed look like the Alaskan gasline will be constructed. Please see below a link to Governor Dunleavy's energy press conference yesterday.

hTTps://youtu.be/GDjVwBts9kc?si=-oc6j3hsgKWtgpgm

There is not one professional in the O&G sector in Alaska who thinks a project is commercially viable by relying on future natural gas sales alone. I repeat, not one professional thinks that way. Rather, the production and sale of hydrocarbon liquids alone must be viable for a project to be assessed as commercially viable on the North Slope. Sadly, the data collected thus far by 88E at Project Phoenix does not appear to support the commercial development of Phoenix. As a result, the probable construction of the gasline will be unlikely to benefit 88E's Project Phoenix. Project Leonis? Who knows. 88E is years and hundreds of millions of dollars away from fully appraising what may or may not be contained within that acreage. 88E is relying entirely on sourcing external capital from unknown partners to advance any of its projects in Alaska.

Your question was fair, but sadly the answer is no.

.

HTTps://www.kdll.org/local-news/2025-01-06/state-says-it-is-close-to-an-agreement-with-a-private-company-to-lead-alaska-lng-project

With thanks to Adz for making the Dunleavy press conference available so promptly on YouTube, see below.

hTTps://youtu.be/GDjVwBts9kc?si=hCvS20bPnJtgpWkY

AGDC signing an exclusivity framework agreement with a private energy/infrastructure enterprise is a proper gamechanger IMHO. The $50m backstop from AIDEA was clearly essential but I'd also bet a few dollars the private company would have sought, and received, assurances of support (financial, political will and capital, legal, Interior Dept, Dept of Energy, DoJ, Defence Dept, State Dept) from the Trump transition team before entering into this exclusivity agreement with AGDC.

The equity market ***should*** take note of this press conference. The market ***should*** note Alaskan political and regulatory leaders acknowledging explicitly PANR's cornerstone role in this massive $44bn project. There is no question in my mind that the information from the press conference marks a de-risking step for PANR's investment case. As such, and all else being equal, PANR's equity value ***should*** increase on this news.

31/12/24 @ 09:38

Hi Killerpidgeon - a couple of fact checks for you. I began commenting on 88E only when Dave Wall confirmed 88E and PANR shared various reservoirs, albeit markedly different in scale and quality due to 88E being downdip of PANR's portion of the shared asset. Thus I've been posting about 88E, and sharing my analysis, comparative valuation models, etc. for far longer than one year. It's either 3 or 4 years since Dave Wall first mentioned PANR in an 88E RNS. Delighted you've enjoyed reading the content for at least a year, possibly longer.

31/12/24 @ 09:59

Investor111 - fact check? False. Proof? (i) My first post on fintwit was a *response* to various shorters claiming PANR was a scam, that there was no seal present at Talitha, that management had falsified data. Look up the definition of "response" (ii) the SP pretty much doubled from around that time, the time of the fundraise at 65p. I look forward to you withdrawing your inaccurate statement. A more honest poster would have noted the shorters piled on meaningfully when a) the 3 exec directors sold stock at 124p and b) the Alkaid-2 LTPT failed to deliver on its pre-drill guidance. Less lying and more honesty from you, Investor111.

31/12/24 @ 13:18

Hi Miner4 - I categorically reject as laughable your contention that 88E shareholders are investing in "an oilfield almost identical to next door (which as you say is 3 years ahead in development). If PANR is successful, that will certainly make 88e very attractive to a major. You know that as well as I do."

(i) "almost identical" - complete gibberish. Yes, there are shared reservoirs but Dmax considerations mean that the updip portion of the shared reservoirs displays commercial reservoir characteristics (PANR) whereas the downdip portion does not appear to be commercially viable (88E).

(ii) If PANR is successful, it'll make PANR "very attractive to a major". No-one is going to touch 88E's Project Phoenix unless it's commercially viable. All the data collected thus far by 88E at Phoenix does *not* support the case for commercial development.

(iii) "You know that as well as I do." Lolololololol. Good one! Hehehehe.

Miner4 - do you actually believe a single word in your post? Has it ever occurred to you that if 88E insiders believed as described in your post then they'd be falling over themselves to buy as much stock as possible? And yet with the exception of Staley, not one member of the leadership team has invested *a single dollar* in 88E stock. In fact, Ashley has taken his bonus in cash (v's shares) in one period, and immediately sold his LTIP shares as soon as they vested in another.

Anyone picking up the signals here? You don't have to listen to me or Rabito79 or olderwiser or munnietorx....just follow the lead of the 88E bosses.

09:42

Just for info only, not sparring. Fully appreciate the discussion has been in pence, but just fyi, the US OTC intra-day SP high was 9.2c in H1'21. Happy to be corrected. So, yep, down 97% or so from the high point.

31/12/24 @ 17:33 and 15:09

It was the Dave Wall period which saw the most egregious of management abuse. 88E buying another ASX listed company *at a premium* where Dave was the first or second largest shareholder was outrageous. Sending 88E on a wild goose chase to one of the most stranded onshore assets anywhere on the planet, and spending US$50m doing so was outrageous (Peregrine). Setting up and executing a circular invoice---cash payment---private placing---immediate share sales between the company and Erik Opstad's private OFS firm (ELKO) was a cosmically egregious abuse of 88E shareholders. Compared to the Dave Wall leadership days, Ashley is at the Vauxhall Conference level v's DW operating in the Prem. Actually, make that the Champions League because DW's Inyati Capital is still scooping 6-7% commission on all the funds Inyati raises for 88E since his departure. What a legend.

31/12/24 @ 10:20

Jeepers, Brom is sure doing a lot of stretching here, isn't he? Burgundy has failed to meet its payment obligations since Q1'23 (when Hickory-1 was drilled) all the way through to 31/12/24. So let's get this straight, shall we? Despite investing US$25m into Project Phoenix thus far, and having access to the data all the way through, Burgundy is self-evidently struggling to come up with a mere US$3m to ensure they retain their working interest in Project Phoenix.

Brom may wish forum members to "draw some comfort" from this miserable state of affairs but many forum members are now wise to his reassuring posts spoken with forked tongue. [Long term members will recall that it was months after the fact when Brom admitted to selling into the social media 88E SP spike, despite posting hundreds of uniformly positive posts in the period leading up to the spike ***and, crucially, in the months following his share sales but before admitting he'd sold into the spike***.]

Forum members should read the RNS of 31/12/24 again. Being icily objective, try to name one other RNS in the history of 88E in Alaska which attempts to tie 88E's future good fortune to PANR's current operations. But the company and Brom are trying, once again, to pull the wool over forum members' eyes. PANR's Megrez-1 is focussed on the Eastern topsets at Ahpun. These topsets are pretty well understood elsewhere on the Slope, and are likely the main attraction for whomever bought the leases to the east of Ahpun. I asked this forum to point me towards evidence that the topsets extend into 88E's acreage at Project Phoenix. Everyone remember? Apart from laziness and sticking heads in the sand, the main reason for the silence is that there is simply no evidence of topsets in 88E's acreage. So why is 88E management tying itself to Megrez? Very naughty.

Announcement out in Oz. Couple of items of note. Burgundy's IPO is supposed to happen in North America, so Canada or USA. This will allow forum members to monitor any paperwork filed by BEX with the various exchanges in those two countries.

Another kick of the football down the road, the new date being February 15th, 2025. Everyone will note the desperation to attach 88E's Project Phoenix to PANR's impending flow test of Megrez-1. The trouble is that PANR may very well have released the lab results from the data collected at Megrez-1 by that date, but I'm uncertain whether any flow test results will be available? Secondly, Megrez-1 is assessing the Eastern Topsets at Ahpun East, described as "wholly conventional". Does 88E's acreage contain any topsets formation(s)?

Instead of throwing more cash (US$25m and counting) at Project Phoenix, Burgundy would be better investing in the NN's equity. That would give them exposure to: a larger asset....a higher quality, updip asset.....a more highly classified asset....a project at least 3 years ahead of Phoenix....an asset which has been independently assessed as commercial.....the sole supplier of natural gas to the proposed gasline for the first few years of its operation...a management team where ***each individual*** has invested significant sums of money into the buying shares in their company.

Easy decision.

11:11

Ayecuramba - less imagining, more reliance on facts. See my post timed at 00:53 for the FACTS. In fact, why not try making an increased reliance on facts your 2025 resolution. That, and waiting for a few hours before hitting "post message" on your latest made up nonsense.

To repeat, the index revisions became EFFECTIVE at cob on Friday, 20th December. Fact.

07:27

Hi Chinaplate - No.

PANR was the only stock promoted from the AIM 100 to the AIM 50 index. The revisions became effective at the close of business on Friday, 20th December, so were active from the opening today (Monday, 23rd December). The vast majority of reweighting has already occurred after 4/12/24 (when FTSE Russell clients were informed) so I wouldn't expect too much, if any, enhanced volume as a result of this news.

14:13

Hi AlexDD - I profoundly disagree with your suggestion that "The Megrez results have no bearing on the current SP." I feel this way because the volume of negative comments on financial internet forums (most notably Twitter) from the loudest and most dismissive naysayers of PANR state the endeavour is one giant science experiment in just about the most difficult and expensive location in the world. In addition, and despite industry audits by the likes of Netherland Sewell, AHS Baker Hughes, Schlumberger, Lee Keeling et al. there is supreme scepticism that PANR's tight-ish contingent resources can be developed in an economically viable manner.

To be clear, I disagree with this under-researched view. However, that said, Megrez-1 offers the potential for data to be collected, published and audited which can be more easily understood by commentators. These loud, under-researched and dismissive commentators currently refuse to countenance the suggestion that the combination of long laterals and multi-stage fracking can deliver engineering solutions to commercialise PANR's proven reservoirs in Alaska. The good news is that Megrez-1 is targeting reservoirs with wholly conventional properties (20-25% porosity, 5-35mD permeability). Results thus far *appear* to confirm PANR management's pre-drill expectations on that front. We will know far more once the lab results are received, the flow test designed and flow test results begin to come through in Q1'25.

As we reach these stages in turn, and providing the results are as anticipated, then Ahpun East will present an irresistible tsunami of data which will see more traditional valuation methods applied to this portion of PANR's asset base. This will hopefully provide a foundation or base case from which the company can access new sources of (less dilutive, even non-dilutive) capital *and* open doors to institutional investors and/or industry partners.

My *personal* view is that if pre-drill estimates are confirmed by the Q1'25 flow test, then analysts will have no choice but to increase their risked/unrisked valuations of PANR's equity. Canaccord's risked fair value is 90p currently. If the Megrez-1 flow test supports management's pre-drill assessment of Ahpun East, I can easily make a case for that figure being upgraded to 150p+.

15/12/24 @ 11:50

Hi Learningtoinvest - I don't think Surprise Valley has a relationship with either 88E or the NN. If I was forced to speculate, I'd have thought the two most likely candidates would be Apache and/or Armstrong. Those are the only two entities, apart from 88E and the NN, to have shown any interest in the land to the east of the Dalton Highway, TAPS and the Sag River.

Here's a useful introduction to Armstrong/Apache's activities in the 23/24 winter season.

hTTps://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/armstrong-announces-2024-north-slope-exploration-drilling-results-campaign-extends-the-prolific-brookian-topset-fairway-65-miles-to-the-east-302123867.html

12/12/24 @ 11:43

So, Brom, that means the balance of US$224k will be paid to the SoA in summer '25. With such limited cash on hand and no sign of Burgundy Xploration paying what they owe to 88E (US$350k was due by 31/10/24 and not a peep from the 88E BoD????? plus a further c.US$3.5m due by 31/12/24) then that's a decent-sized investment on new lease acreage. Which is great, with the proviso 88E secures a financial injection from a partner in order to drill Project Leonis sometime in the 25/26 winter season. Until then, happy to value the Leonis leases at purchase cost, or optionality value.

Of course 88E hopes to be drilling two wells in the 25/26 winter season. In the absence of a massively successful Burgundy Xploration IPO on an exchange no-one in this forum has been able to identify (not US, Canada, Oz or UK) I cannot see another external partner farming in to Project Phoenix when they can either negotiate a farm in to a far more attractive asset to the immediate north of 88E's acreage or simply invest in the NN's equity directly.

On that basis, I'd suggest Project Leonis has a better chance of attracting external interest than Project Phoenix. I wish 88E all the very best at Leonis.

Anyone in the forum managed to investigate what happens if/when 88E defaults on their next payment to the Namibian project, due in 2025? We know 88E has insufficient cash to make the payment. Are there any penalties to 88E for failing to make the Second Stage payment? Will the whole Namibian project grind to a halt unless and until another source of external capital is identified? Or will 88E management use any Recon Africa inspired newsflow to launch another heavily-discounted equity raise? To fulfil their commitment to the Namibian project, 88E will have to issue another 30 billion odd shares, giving 60 billion SOI. Jeepers.

16:33

The only idea I came up with for the new neighbour on PANR's eastern flank was that it is acting as a proxy for Armstrong and/or Apache? Apart from PANR, they're the only two parties I'm aware of who have an understanding of the geology to the east of the Dalton Highway and the Sag River.