Member Info for Scot126

An fyi, but I'm *delighted* to be corrected if I've made an incorrect assumption.

The Alaska State Senate's next Floor Session isn't scheduled until 15/6/26 @ 11am, Juneau time. In the meantime, the Senate Finance Committee is scheduled to meet every day next week.

The Alaska State House's next Floor Session isn't scheduled until 10/6/26 @ 11am, Juneau time. The House Finance Committee is only scheduled to meet once next week, on 8/6/26.

My *assumption* is that even if the full House passes the tax restructuring bill on the 10th, the earliest date for the full Senate to vote on the bill will be on 15/6/26? Both chambers need to pass the bill before it's sent to the Governor for his signature.

09:33

Well done, LonSE1960! Your post contains as excellent an example of conspiratorial nonsense as I've read today! Let me be exceptionally blunt so that no-one is misinformed by your idiocy.

The fact that the NOMAD nodded through Lord Spencer's purchase of 5m shares/CFDs this week means the company cannot be planning a fund raise. If the company was planning a fund raise, the NOMAD would have had to be informed and would have prevented Spencer from purchasing stock/CFDs.

To be crystal clear: Lord Spencer's purchase this week means that no fund raise is being contemplated for the forseeable future. Go back to the Investor Meets Company website and re-watch (or more likely view for the first time) the March AGM webinar. Spencer makes perfectly clear his thoughts on this matter.

To all forum members: if you see anyone like LonSE1960 spouting b0ll0x about an incoming fund raise on the various bulletin boards, call them out on their dishonourable conduct. Inform them that no NOMAD in the world would allow Spencer to purchase stock/CFDs if a fund raise was being planned.

I trust I've been sufficiently clear?!

09:35

Hi Kanothekid - I suggest you, and anyone else who is focussing on Spencer's use of CFDs, to look up Lord Spencer's business history. He co-founded ICAP, one of the global pioneers of equity derivatives. I'd have thought Spencer is just about as comfortable using CFDs as anyone on the planet!

To those who are not educated about market rules or lexicon, please read and digest the following. Whether Lord Spencer bought 5m shares or 5m CFDs......or 4.9m shares and 100k CFDs.......or 100k shares and 4.9m CFDs....it is the economic interest which is key for the purposes of a purchase/sale declaration by a PDMR.

Do stop looking for a conspiracy of dastardly deeds by the billionaire where one does not exist. It's embarrassing.

12:14

Except, DrSlicer, because Lord Spencer is a PDMR he cannot sell a single share or CFD (or any other instrument representing an economic interest in PANR) without notifying the exchange and shareholders via an RNS from the company. I certainly agree that Spencer's purchase shows evidence of his confidence in PANR's future and that, in his assessment as Chairman, the market is undervaluing the company.

For the record, and as a small cap investment banker since the mid 90s, it is a key determinant for my *personal* investment process to see senior management invest meaningful "hurt money" in the listed entity they lead. In that spirit, and being entirely consistent, I call upon Max Easley ($10k invested only), Tralisa Maraj ($0) and Erich Krumanocker ($0) to follow Spencer's example and to invest their own cash in buying PANR stock on market. They've all been in office for 12 months or longer so no excuses.

The fact the NOMAD waived through Spencer's purchase this week means that, by extension, senior management are not considered to be inside at this precise moment in time. Same goes for the NEDs. It's past time they all signal their alignment with the shareholders who employ them.

Interestingly, in the March AGM webinar, Lord Spencer stated he strongly approved of management being direct owners of equity in listed businesses. I'd be delighted if he followed through on this statement.

for those wondering about recent sp volatility. my personal thoughts, could be right or wrong.

recent daily rises based primarily on some retail traders focussing on the positive implications for panr if the alaskan legislature passes the tax bill and the gasline is greenlit + lots of technical analysis commentary about gaps being filled, etc, etc. across all the social media platforms. oh, and there was the usual uninformed bull**** chatter about "a farm in partner about to be announced tomorrow" on websites like this one.

what about the sp retreat over the last couple of sessions? speculation of a peace deal between us & iran, straits of hormuz re-opening and brent falling from $110 to $92 per barrel. and don't forget the traders who lost interest once momentum paused at c.18p or so.

plus, the volume has been comparatively low. yes, somewhat elevated from the average over recent months but nothing spectacular.

I was able to confirm the House and Senate Finance Committees of the Alaskan legislature are indeed scheduled to begin meeting this coming week. We know the full chambers won't meet again until 4/6/26, so that's the earliest possible date the tax restructuring bill will be brought to a vote. Until that date (at the earliest), both finance committees have been tasked with finding a negotiated route towards a bill acceptable to the Governor/Glenfarne and the state legislature.

Personal opinion: I believe the bill will pass. However, looking at the history of contentious bills in Alaska and special sessions, the likelihood of brinkmanship and delaying a vote until the last minute has got to be pretty high. A reminder, the special seesion closes on 19/6/26.

22:33

Hi Stoamillion - the Governor of Alaska instructed the state legislature (House and Senate) to reconvene for a special session on Thursday, 21st May at 10am. Both the House and Senate met briefly today before adjourning their respective chambers until Thursday, 4th June. So the bill to restructure Alaska's state property structure won't be passed until 4th June at the earliest. More practically, if the bill is to pass we're likely looking somewhere between 4/6/26 - 19/6/26 (when special session must end) for concrete news on this crucial matter.

Please see link below which takes you to Governor Dunleavy's Executive Proclamation authorising the Alaskan state legislature to move into a special session on 21/5/26 @ 10am. The regular legislative session will cease @ cob on 20/5/26. The *only* item of business to be considered in the special session will be the bill seeking to adjust Alaska's tax structure to ensure the Alaska LNG project is commercially viable for the developer and external investors.

hTTps://x.com/alaskalandmine/status/2056888249323549161?s=20

Interestingly, it appears in the last 24 hours the White House has been in touch with the President of the Alaskan Senate, a Republican senator named Gary Stevens. One can only imagine the pressure the Trump administration will be piling on to all the Republican senators and representatives to get this bill passed during the special session.

The Alaska Sustainable Energy Conference started today (Tuesday) in Anchorage, and runs until cob on Thursday. Secretary of the Interior, Doug Burgum, and Governor Dunleavy held a joint press conference at the Conference today, including a Q&A with journailsts. See link below - well worth listening to because you can see the battle lines being drawn in advance of the arguments for and against the push to amend the tax structure for the Alaska LNG project. The sound is patchy in the first few minutes but it improves thereafter.

hTTps://www.ktoo.org/video/gavel/governor-dunleavy-press-availability-2026051233/?eventID=2026051233

Here's an Alaskan politician's explanation for what Governor Dunleavy is likely to do if, as now expected, the legislative session ends on Wednesday without passing the gasline bill.

"So, for now, leaders in the House and Senate are doubtful they can get the bill done before the regular session ends. Meanwhile, Governor Dunleavy says he’s willing to call a special session on the issue.

Dunleavy has an hour after adjournment to call lawmakers back into an immediate special session, otherwise he’d have to wait 30 days."

Scot126 - following this process from afar, Dunleavy has consistently signaled he's going to immediately call a special session if no gasline bill has been passed by cob on Wednesday this week.

That's my best guess, folks. It's an election year in Alaska so legislators will be fairly grumpy if they are instructed to stay in Juneau for another few days/weeks. Will that focus their minds on making the necessary concessions to property taxes to ensure the gasline is commercially viable?

Polling released in the last 48 hours suggests c.70% of Alaskans support the gasline. I expect the Governor's office will urge the electorate to communicate vigorously (!) with their senators and representatives to maintain forward momentum on the LNG project.

Personal opinion: I do believe the gasline bill will pass in May/June but that it's now unlikely to pass before cob on Wednesday and will require a special session to be called.

08.40 Thanks for the heads up, theoilbarron. Governor Dunleavey has indeed vetoed the pensions bill. I don't know what effect, if any, it will have on the progress of the gasline bill? The legislative session must end at cob on Wednesday this week. However, I am now looking at the possibility that the Governor may instruct the legislature to open an Emergency Session for 10 days immediately after Wednesday in order to get the gasline bill passed. Good article below which explains the political options in the short term.

hTTps://x.com/adndotcom/status/2056634557374533986?t=rPXBcYArwQW3FhG3QNZ2lA&s=19

A long night. The article below explains really well what happened in Juneau overnight IMHO. Bit of a standstill for now but the House is scheduled to keep going with the debate on the amendments to the bill later today.

hTTps://www.adn.com/politics/alaska-legislature/2026/05/18/house-considers-new-alaska-lng-bill-following-negotiations-with-dunleavy/

HTTps://www.upstreamonline.com/lng/us-major-agrees-to-gas-supply-deal-for-lng-development/2-1-1991013?zephr_sso_ott=UXRO5a

Ha! Verrrryyyyy interesting.

Pat Galvin's wife, Alyse, is a Democratic member of the House in the Alaskan state legislature. She just addressed the House to declare that she has a direct conflict of interest. She said words to the effect that her family stood to benefit directly if the property tax reduction bill for the gasline was passed today. I am fairly certain that somewhere in her admission she stated that her family WOULD benefit if the Bill passes, not could, and that it would be large or meaningful or material or somesuch word which conveyed significant scale.

If you type "Alyse Galvin Alaska" into Google, up pop some photos of Mrs Galvin. I'm no fashionista, but I reckon she is wearing the same yellow jacket from the photos on the House floor today!

Summary so far? The vast majority of representatives who have spoken thus far are coming from an angle of "Yes, and......" or "Yes, but....."

Most representatives appear to support the idea of a gasline for Alaska's future prosperity but wish to make sure that any concessions given to make the project financially viable for external investors don't damage their constituents' interests in the immediate and longer term.

[for those unaware of Pat Galvin's role in PANR, please see the following from the company's website:

"Pat Galvin - General Counsel & Chief Commercial Officer

Pat Galvin is the former Alaska State Commissioner of Revenue, Former Petroleum Land Manager for the Alaska Dept of Natural Resources, overseeing the State’s oil and gas leasing program. Former partner at K&L Gates."]

There *may* also be a press conference by Governor Dunleavy today. Latest guidance on the timing for the press conference is noon, Juneau time. [London is 9 hours ahead currently, fyi] He will have a couple of notable wins to direct towards the legislature and wider Alaskan electorate. (1) Santos/Repsol's Pikka project has just produced its first commercial oil and (2) Glenfarne and Conoco today signed a Gas Sales Precedent agreement. I suspect that if the Dunleavy press conference goes ahead the Governor will seek to exert maximum pressure on the legislature to pass the property tax bill today/this week.

I don't yet know if the press conference will be broadcast live? Governor Dunleavy's YouTube page is ok, but it doesn't normally cover live events. I find that hTTps://www.alaskasnewssource.com/livestream/ is pretty good for coverling live events in Alaska.

If anyone else knows how to access the Governor's press conference, if it goes ahead, then please let this forum know?

Dear All - this is it! Click on the link below to listen live to the Alaskan legislature debate the Bill which would dramatically reduce property taxes on the route of the proposed gasline in order to allow the Alaska LNG project to proceed.

Some local commentators suggest the Bill must be passed by 3pm today (Juneau time) as the Governor is threatening to veto a defined benefits pension bill unless the legislature passes the gasline bill. *If* the gasline bill is passed, all else being equal, PANR's value should increase dramatically tomorrow.

Other local commentators suggest the deadline on the gasline bill *could be* close of business in Juneau on Wednesday. Close of business on Wednesday is when the legislative session closes.

hTTps://www.ktoo.org/360TV/#page=schedule&day=20260518&provider=Broadcast

I cannot overemphasise enough the importance of the property tax relief bill being passed by the Alaskan state legislature to PANR's short, medium and long term future. Whether the political activity concludes tonight (London time) or later in the week, Guild members' eyes should be firmly affixed on the 60 state legislators in Juneau. I sincerely hope they get it done.

26/3/26 @ 08:13

Poor wee ShareGuru22 isn't the brightest of posters on these forums. After I posted links to interviews and statements by senior US politicians about the proposed Alaska KNG project, ShareGuru22 asked the following of me: "Will you be sharing this good news on the 88e board too as I notice you post 'factual content' on that too? Or are you cherry picking your narrative................"

On the face of it, and specifically for the less informed 88E and PANR forum members who ticked his posts today, ShareGuru22's question might sound quite reasonable. The trouble is that ShareGuru22 doesn't appreciate the multifarious differences in the investment cases of PANR and 88E. You see, ShareGuru22, PANR signed a Gas Sales Precedent Agreement with AGDC (and thus Glenfarne thereafter) on 5/6/24. Accordingly, the proposed construction of the gasline *could* have a massive effect on the future of the PANR investment case and the value of its equity.

Now then, ShareGuru22, please inform the 88E and PANR forums of the date when 88E signed a Gas Sales Precedent Agreement with AGDC/Glenfarne? Sorry, what was that? You can't give us a date because 88E has never signed such an Agreement? Hmmmm.......you're not the sharpest knife in the drawer, are you ShareGuru22?

And before you rattle off the usual b0ll0x about advising people to invest in PANR at 140p or some such nonsense, please read the following and take the time to comprehend it. I don't have a license to give investment advice. Therefore I don't give investment advice. Pretty simply really. I do, however, share my thoughts and analysis on the investment case of PANR and 88E on lse in order to assist in building a consensus understanding of the facts of the two investment cases. Why? In order to promote as accurate a price discovery process as possible. No more, no less.

Oh, and by the way, ShareGuru22. 88E is down 99% from its peak. PANR is down a measly 93%. I'm sure you'll agree, a magnificent win for PANR!!

Please find below a link to an interview of Secretary Burgum by Daniel Yergin at CERAWEEK on Wednesday. Listen from 16mins 30secs for Alaska LNG chat.

hTTps://www.ceraweek.com/en/program/leadership-dialogue-with-hon-doug-burgum-1068-52178

Please find below a couple of short videos from Governor Dunleavy. He is advocating for the passage of a key Bill which would see the property taxes associated with the gasline reduced by 90% or so. Without question, we are seeing an intensification of pressure to move the gasline construction through to FID by the political and corporate backers of this project.

hTTps://www.youtube.com/shorts/IlER2WVdMM0

hTTps://www.youtube.com/shorts/2OQveMIuePQ

19/3/26 @ 07:00

Hi JoD - trading halt in Australia pending news of a capital raise. Just think of all those retail investors spiked into 88E over the last couple of weeks. What was it you highlighted? Something about a noteworthy increase in volume in Australia, something like 9x the average volume, wasn't it? Don't know about you, JoD, but I can't help wondering if the sellers on those high turnover days up around AU 4c won't be the very supporters of the fund raise being executed as I write this?

JOD - you stated on this forum that you "didn't see why not" Burgundy Xploration wouldn't come through with the finance required to drill a horizontal well at Phoenix later this year. As I trust the forum is aware, Burgundy has until 30/4/26 to show proof of funds raised in the IPO. If their IPO hasn't happened by that date, presumably Bex will seek to renegotiating its farm in deal with 88E once again. Only 5 weeks away so we don't have too long to wait.

i presume you're keeping an eye out for Bex's IPO paperwork in the US? Looking at their website and searching the SEC filings, I can't see any references to their IPO timetable, can you?

Tell you what though, it'll be really interesting to see if Ashley Gilbert supports the 88E fund raise. First time for everything, eh?

Part 2, continued from Part 1 below.

7) 7) You have misunderstood me in your paragraph beginning "However, the suggestion that investors....." Professional fund managers, which Bex will meet during the IPO roadshow, will examine and interrogate the "Use of Funds" strategy as laid out by Bex management. They will see that the definitive analogue well's flow test is currently suspended (Dubhe-1) and results are indeed "inconclusive" as you correctly stated. It is *these* investors whom I contend will delay investing in the Bex IPO pending the outcome of the Dubhe-1 flow test. I am fairly sure Bex executives will realise this and, as a result, if they wish to proceed with their IPO this year they may very well elect to amend their "Use of Funds" to prioritise another drill rather than the SMD-B horizontal well at Phoenix.

I hope and trust that message is more clear to you now?

Response in short:

Dubhe-1 is not a definitive read through for Phoenix. scot126 - profoundly disagree; and it's definitively an analogue to the design of the proposed Bex/88E horizontal well at Phoenix targeting the SMD-B.

PANR’s pause does not equal a negative outcome scot126 - true. However, the inconclusive result thus far reduces the likelihood of a successful Bex IPO as currently envisaged with the SMD-B horizontal well understood to be the primary objective for the "Use of Funds".

Phoenix is derisked by Hickory1 and is multi-zone scot126 - indeed, but I'd have thought the underwhelming volume of oil collected at surface would merit an appropriate caveat to your statement, non?

Funding/timing is the real variable, not geology scot126 - yes, agreed ref. funding/timing. Also, maybe not geology but certainly completion design is still a key variable prior to decalring commericality for both PANR and 88E.

The outcome at Phoenix will ultimately depend on its own flow results and funding, not on whether PANR resumes testing first. scot126 - yes, true. However, my argument is that potential Bex IPO investors will wish to be cogniscant of the Dubhe-1 results as part of their risk management assessment *prior* to backing a Bex IPO with their capital *if* the primary purpose of the funds raised is to drill a horizontal well targeting the SMD-B at Phoenix.

I also don't look at 88e versus PANR like Celtic versus Rangers. For all concerned, it would be great if they both succeeded. scot126 - 100%. Ensuring a consensus understanding of the facts supporting an investment case leading to consistent price discovery is what I am seeking to establish.

NB If Bex/88E do indeed drill a horizontal well targeting the SMD-B at Phoenix in 2026 or 2027, I will be cheering them on as energetically as anyone. If Bex designs a successful completion which provides incontravertible proof of the SMD-B's commerciality then i'll be opening a bottle of champers to toast them! /end

17/3/26 @ 07:07

Hi JackOfDiamonds - thank you for your reply. I'll attempt to address your points in turn.

1) Not so much a bearish argument as an assessment of your previously expressed view that 2026 would see Burgundy raise sufficient capital to drill a horizontal well at Phoenix. To be very clear, I have zero comment to make about any of 88E's other projects at South Prudhoe, Kad River East or Namibia. They are all speculative in nature with varying degrees of data supporting 88E's interest. Fine. You pays your money....

2) I don't think Phoenix depends on Dubhe-1 per se ( I don't think I stated this?). The point I am attempting to make is that due to the "inconclusive" results from Dubhe-1 thus far, it is my assessment that Burgundy will find it *more* difficult to raise funds during the IPO process. I am sure you will agree that if Dubhe-1 had flowed 3000bopd of light, sweet crude in December '25 then Burgundy would justifiably be pretty confident that they'd raise sufficient funds during the IPO to drill a horizontal well at Phoenix in 2026? Fair?

Well, surely the logical deduction from the above scenario is that the likelihood of Bex raising funds in their proposed IPO has *decreased* as a result of the suspension of Dubhe-1 operations?

3) I profoundly disagree with your statement that Dubhe-1 is not a "definitive analogue" to the proposed lateral well to be drilled at Phoenix as currently understood. The proposed Bex/88E horizontal well, as currently specified by 88E's public commentary, is targeting the exact same SMD-B formation as Dubhe-1, only a few miles south of the Dubhe-1 location. As a result, I would argue that the proposed Bex/88E horizontal well is about as analogue a well v's Dubhe-1 as you can get in Alaskan exploration!

4) You make an argument that Phoenix is not a one trick pony. So stipulated. However forum memebers should be clear that the proposed Bex/88E horizontal well is targeting the SMD-B, and that the SMD-B formation characteristics are thought to be superior in PANR's acreage due to its updip location. You refer to Hickory-1. The other horizons intersected at Hickory-1 are also present at Talitha #A and Dubhe-1, and in larger volumes and with superior reservoir properties.

5) My analysis does not "overlook" the results from Hickory-1. Unless Bex/88E is planning to commingle production at their proposed horizontal well at Phoenix then the presence of flowing hydrocarbons in the SFS and other SMD intervals is not really an appropriate debating point in this context, is it?

6) Funding paragraph. Noted.

Part 1, see above for Part 2.