RE: USA16 Mar 2026 18:09
12/3/26 @ 17:44
JackOfDiamonds - you posted the following, "Phoenix: We all know about this. Wait until April or May to see if IPO goes through. This is the biggest news of the year."
I agree that it would be big news if Burgundy's IPO gets away and they raise sufficient capital to proceed with their plan to drill an horizontal well at Phoenix in 2026. The thing is, this already difficult challenge became even more difficult with the news from PANR last week.
PANR announced last week that it's not going to proceed with any operations whilst negotiating a farm out. Unfortunately for 88E and Burgundy, this means PANR will not, for now, be re-starting their flow test operations at Dubhe-1. The horizon being flow tested at Dubhe-1 is the same SMD-B horizon which Burgundy is planning to target and test in their proposed horizontal well at Phoenix later this year. Burgundy will have been praying PANR recommenced its Dubhe-1 operations in the Spring, announced commercial flow numbers, after which Burgundy could go out with an analogue well/reservoir narrative and raise some cash.
Imagine a Burgundy IPO roadshow meeting now that PANR is delaying Dubhe-1.
Fund Manager (FM): "So, Mr Burgundy CEO (BEX CEO), your presentation sounds exciting. I note your neighbour to the north, Pantheon Resources, has drilled a horizontal well targeting the same SMD-B reservoir as you're planning to drill. So Dubhe-1 is a direct analogue to your proposed horizontal well at Phoenix, correct?"
BEX CEO: "Yep, that's right."
FM: "But hasn't PANR suspended their Long Term Production Test at Dubhe-1 after retrieving to surface around 50% of the frack fluids?"
BEX CEO: "Yep, that's correct."
FM: "And hasn't PANR just informed the market that, rather than recommencing the Dubhe-1 flow test in the Spring/early Summer, they've decided to put that on hold for now as they negotiate a farm out?"
BEX CEO: "Yep, that's true."
FM: "In that case, why on earth would I give you precious capital to drill an expensive well targeting the exact same reservoir, the SMD-B, when the flow test from the analogue PANR well is inconclusive and, for now, there's no timetable for PANR to recommence operations at that analogue well?"
BEX CEO: "Erm, er, er........"
FM: "This just doesn't make sense. Why would you, 88E and potential IPO investors not wait for a definitive decision from PANR as to whether they plan to recommence operations at Dubhe-1, and for confirmation that the SMD-B is a commerical reservoir? What if Dubhe-1 confirms the SMD-B is non-commerical and you've just sp*nked $40m of IPO investors' cash up the wall when, if you'd waited for the Dubhe-1 results, this could all have been avoided?"
BEX CEO: "Erm, er, er....."
JackOfDiamonds, BEX may or may not get their IPO away (next 88E deadline is end of April) but I suggest relying on the Phoenix narrative alone to attract IPO investors will not work. I doubt a well will be drilled at Phoenix in 2026, do