Member Info for Scoobydoo321

https://twitter.com/DrJPPham/status/1408412415268638721

Translated from google -
After years of disengagement which had little to do with it, it is good to see the Flag of European Union # EU re-engage fully with the Flag of Burundi # Burundi in an “open and warm climate”. The Flag of United States # USA took the first big step towards standardization a year ago with my special mission.
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Does anyone know when Ed mentioned Q3 IPO - is he referring to calender Q3 or financial year Q3?

Trying to glue the pieces together

Dr Pham - last week - meets the Burundi president in person.
https://twitter.com/DrJPPham/status/1405741422897102849

This week - George Bennett flies to Burundi early next month, confident that his meeting with President Evariste Ndayishimiye will lead to agreement on the terms for operating Africa’s only rare earths mine.

Sounds like, Dr Pham, laid the groundwork and the overall framework agreed and now in terms of nitty gritty, George will finalise. Sounds consistent and most plausible.

Rainbow Earths CEO confident Burundi rare earths’ dispute will be resolved

https://www.theafricareport.com/100025/rainbow-earths-ceo-confident-burundi-rare-earths-dispute-will-be-resolved/

Rainbow Earths CEO George Bennett flies to Burundi early next month, confident that his meeting with President Evariste Ndayishimiye will lead to agreement on the terms for operating Africa’s only rare earths mine.

The project at Gakara is “definitely going to work,” Bennett tells The Africa Report from Johannesburg. The discussions concern the mining convention covering royalties and tax, he says, adding that the company’s good relationship with the government gives him confidence. “Burundi is a very good resource and a very good project.”

Rare earths are crucial to energy transition as they are needed for magnets used in hybrid and electric vehicles, as well as wind power turbines. According to an International Energy Agency (IEA) report that was released in May, global demand for rare earths may rise by three to seven times by 2040.

Rest behind paywall

With Dr Pham's influence in Africa, George appears very confident that the Burundi will be sorted out.

Vadim is Head of SP Angel healthcare

https://www.**********.co.uk/media/60cb4086f100b6321edd9b6a/?context=/series/daily-podcast
v o x m a r k e t s
31:15 onwards
Vadim Alexandre, head of SP Angel discusses SMD

https://investors.spectralmd.com/docs/spectralmdlibraries/default-document-library/admission-document/spectral_md_admission_document.pdf

AI driven - state of the art tech.
Looks great. FY20 in +'ve net profit due to BARDA contract.
No private equity debt anywhere. Fantastic.
Moat.
Continued BARDA contract grants if milestones hit.
Extending into Diabetic Foot Ulcers.
IP protected.
Octopus Investments hold 7%.
For their burn wounds triaging - they already have FDA break through status.

MV could follow a similar trajectory as RENX.

Last time Ed tweeted around April - they had around cash and cash equivalents/liquid assets of c£13mn. So they are sitting with plenty of money. No need for a fund raise.

More info on narrative fallacy here
https://fs.blog/2016/04/narrative-fallacy/
It's a type of cognitive bias that us humans have when we seek to explain something that we are uncertain of.

The 10-20% SP fall attributable to Poolbeg, IMO, is what Nassim Taleb, the author terms as "narrative fallacy".
Sometimes things happen for another reason, or by misfortune or by luck. Here, CF see the SP fall and assigns the SP fall to the spin off. Why? Because it makes the story all neat and tidy.
Sometimes the story can not be explained or can be due to a number of reasons.

Is he wrong to do so? Perhaps. But we all say things on the spur on the moment without thinking of the consequences particularly when CF is on live recording. IMO, I really dont think that PIs should regard what CF said about 10% SP fall after spin off literally.

There is a persistent seller selling batches of 250k

@Earl
Yeah - I was in this morning. Shocked on its popularity today! What on earth is going on with markets...

Totally agree. It is similar to the selling on the last day of the cum-div for Poolbeg. WT??
When someone is giving you a freebie and you turn it down.

11th Feb - the TU released the SP was 24.5p.
21st June - FY results released (same info as 11th Feb) with post year 5 months showing huge growth in ARR and clients - SP - 18.5p

WT ??????

With the right time, right place, this stock should be much higher. Overall sentiment in the market is a little off for all stocks.

Reiterating what I said, to almost achieve ARR growth of 100% May 2020 to May 2021 is brilliant.

The fundamental business is growing and they appear to be market leaders in this small niche.

Today, initial reading is yikes - increased losses. However, as they go on to state, larger losses in comparison to 2019 were primarily due to IPO expenses. If anything, they could have stated the Share based payment expense and Reverse acquisition expense explicitly (with bracket and figures) rather than requiring lazy PIs to go to the CR statements and pull these figures out in the written paragraphs).

Also, what has repeatedly frustrated the SP is the continuous selling by RTO sellers regardless of the positive news, business updates or underlying business performance.

FY 20 financials same as TU Feb '21 except FY loss.

Loss for 2020 excluding Share based payment expense and Reverse acqusition expense is $1.7 mn. Therefore, only c$0.3 mn higher loss than 2019 FY with signficantly increased business activity.

What really matters is the new information in the new FY 2021-22-

Almost doubled ARR since May 2020 (93%). That's brilliant.

New clients in Jan - May 2021, 81% of 2020 client acquisitions. Of course, we do not know the size of these clients and each client contract (we do not have this info for 2019 either). Still with 7 months in the FY, this is a very aggressive sales and marketing drive.

RTO assets valued extremely conservatively (WeShop + mining resources).

Overall, for a company to increase their ARR by nearly 100% from May 2020 to May 2021 - what more can you ask?

I may be duplicating
but on https://www.**********.co.uk/media/60cb4086f100b6321edd9b6a/?context=/series/daily-podcast
v o x m a r k e t s
CF is on there talking about Poolbeg.
Under Poolbeg, he mentions using their facilities, in the future, to going through challenge trials (phase 1 trials), spend c£5mn per trial and prepare them to be sold off to big pharma afterwards. Sounds like a great model!

@Extrader

Valuation of spin offs wise - I still think that CF is simply sticking out his finger and calling it based on what the EKF secretary told him.

If it helps -
EKF EV c£334mn - today's EV (note that when it spun out the 3 below - the EV was not so high)
Trellus - on IPO EV c£100mn
Verici - on IPO EV c£40-50 mn
Renalytics on IPO EV c£85mn

* note I am using 1st day of public trading as a proxy of IPO valuation.

@Demon
That's why we got CEOs, on the other side of the spectrum who end up being wooden by keeping quiet on all sensitive issues - leaving PIs always uncertain and guessing.
With CF, we can receive so much guidance and visibility that is way beyond any CEO. I, indeed, am very thankful for this and hence why Orph is my biggest investment.

For CF, it can not be easy for him to "stick to the script", to be on live recording to ensure that he is very careful in what he says yet always alluding/ nudging the PI to potential newsflow / what's ahead. In fact, I would be astonished given how much he discloses that if he were not to get timelines / figures occasionally wrong. CF strikes me as someone who is offering help / seeking to share rather than to be boastful and making unsubstantiated claims.

Taking a look further, CF in a bang on trend growing biz like Orph - spot on. Excitable, great prospects, growing, sharing the pie with fellow shareholders - sounds consistent with his personality from what I have observed.
However, put CF as a CEO of a struggling company and I would probably see him in a different light. Things to hide, putting on a brave face, BS factor etc.

IMO, resolution in Burundi should lead to an uplift of SP (valuation) of between 20%-30% from current SP.