RE: Wake up we are now a producer12 Sep 2024 08:47
hydro1 -
'this is my take on what’s next at ggp:
ggp will produce 300-400koz in 2024/25 from telfer ( as detailed in the admission document) . basically ggp is a significant “instant” producer - in fact a top 5 gold producer in australia (as of today). most probably in the gdx at next rebalance. day i think has blown the doors off… anticipating a delay to first gold at havieron - yes the placing price was ****e for lth but it doesn’t really matter now as we will rerate as a producer. we have a a massive 22mt permitted processing plant, fully refurbed at telfer. a circa $200m ore stockpile, and a fully operational mine knocking out some 350koz to 400koz a year, in a rocketing gold price environment, with very low asic at least for the first year or so while day figures out how to manage fixed costs. day has actually played a blinder here. $200+ millions in revenue are just sat in stock piles on the rom pad ready to put through the restarted mill… ggp has just brought forward first gold by 2 years given the delays at havieron … but there’s more confirmed in this paragraph: in the admission doc: part 3, 2.4 - page 61 2.4 “optimisation opportunities the company considers there to be significant opportunities to optimise the development of havieron following acquisition completion. a key opportunity to be assessed by the company is expansion of the havieron mining rate by utilising a bulk ore handling solution. the greatland base case is for a 2.8mtpa mining throughput from havieron, which is constrained by the planned single decline. with the existing telfer infrastructure already in place and approximately 50% surplus processing capacity in the proposed single processing train, a materially increased havieron mining rate has the potential to be highly value accretive. the greatland feasibility study for havieron is targeted to be completed by the company within 12 months after acquisition completion, and will incorporate optimisation opportunities to the extent these are identified and validated.” that tells me they are 100% adding a haul shaft or a conveyor decline to an all new dfs which will increase mine output to 6/7/8mt but totally transform the economics… eg 8 mt at 3g/t is 655-700koz of gold from hav alone. plus whatever we can keep pulling out of telfer so when that dfs finally lands (and this is the reason it’s been delayed)….. it will shock the market i think. it’s all there in the admission document.
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