Member Info for scaredycat

'PIs wont feed them in the timeframe left ,

Yep those algo rhythmic up and down things finnished for sure. Could this be another Rolls Royce?

'Too many millionaires on here when they should be playing on their yachts'

LoL. Fireworks today and in my back garden tonight woohoo

Anyways, off for a holiday in a war zone secure in the knowledge my investment is coming good. Although, I have to be careful what flag I am flying on the yacht..

GLA cpi solid imho. SP wants to go north

'I think the forecast will be in line with expectation'

Always tempted to sell a few even when its +20p just because being so low is annoying... but honestly think +40p and +£1 over 12 to 24 months...

Wrote to IR last week and got a structured reply...

'I appreciate and understand your frustration and disappointment regarding the recent share price movement and I will ensure that your feedback is passed on.

Our Investor Relations programme means that we engage with investors on a continuous basis outside of close periods, as well as during the usual roadshow meetings with the management team'

Anyways, directors and execs are buying. FCF will have £45m+ disposal proceeds in FY reporting and historic costs already reported in H1.

Hopefully Adolpho will be making the case for international expansion to monetise the OECD policy initiatives underway and executing UK PLC public sector contracts won with new debt @ circa 10% ROC...

If it was me, I would declare a modest dividend on the same flight path as as milestone/ up front cash landing from 4/5 year DWP contract etc even as early as April 2024.

No wonder execs are buying. No brainer imho

@Capitalizer

'The question is whether there could be unanticipated impairments arising from the L&P business that would hit profit and FCF ??'

Until the trading update I just assume any puts and takes are a wash regarding fcf etc and they meet guidance

@capitalizer

You can be sure all assets and liabilities have been recorded as required by the companies acts and the directors can get 2 years in jail if they they are telling porky pies.

At last FY the net assets were valued at the lower of cost or net realisable value c£350m.

The market value is c£270m today.

No worries

Come on Adolpho, sort it out.

Raise debt for international expansion imho

https://www.oecd.org/digital/digital-government/good-practice-principles-for-data-ethics-in-the-public-sector.htm?utm_campaign=Digital%20Government%20Edition%20October%202023&utm_content=Link%20to%20the%20Principles%20for%20Data%20Ethics&utm_term=gov&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Adestra

https://www.oecd.org/gov/digital-government/the-e-leaders-handbook-on-the-governance-of-digital-government-ac7f2531-en.htm?utm_campaign=Digital%20Government%20Edition%20October%202023&utm_content=Link%20to%20the%20Handbook&utm_term=gov&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Adestra

https://www.oecd.org/publications/oecd-good-practice-principles-for-public-service-design-and-delivery-in-the-digital-age-2ade500b-en.htm?utm_campaign=Digital%20Government%20Edition%20October%202023&utm_content=Link%20to%20the%20Good%20Practice%20Principles%20for%20Public%20Sector%20Design%20and%20Delivery%20in%20the%20Digital%20Age&utm_term=gov&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Adestra

https://www.oecd.org/employment/the-oecd-framework-for-digital-talent-and-skills-in-the-public-sector-4e7c3f58-en.htm?utm_campaign=Digital%20Government%20Edition%20October%202023&utm_content=Link%20to%20the%20Framework&utm_term=gov&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Adestra

Sharehead

Just needs a few geo political events to drive the pricing of risk at higher interest rates and CPI is on the right side of a positive rerating imho

# realistically, on a spreadsheet , in a merchant bank or corporate strategy department, they would be using a much higher discount rate.

Say 10%, should give a SP of c29p+

That's a familiar number....So, if everything under the companies control is now improving, then such a low share price (16.8p) must be more to do with the general macro and hedges, and so we will see an unwind relative to those companies more exposed than CPI that dont show the same improvement going forward and weak balance sheets.

As for a takeover. The headcount and the contract order book are mouthwatering imho

@nofear, thats good research.

To me, it says the transformation, followed by an underlying business improveme (as per H1 reporting), is further enhanced by contract renewals such as these kand DWP £0.5Bn 2024 etc) with incremental improvements and confirmation of the BoD story, and PIs certainly buying into.

At the moment, it seems markets are cannibalising bond valuations as interest rates increase and explsed equities hedged accordingly. But CPI has materially reduced its exposure to that over the short term. Nobody knows how long the central banks are going to go but CPI gets a place at table imho and any new long term debt will be against new incremental business imho.

If the public sector should be considered in perpetuity (and we cant do without it) then, say, £50m freecashflow at 5% discount rate should give an MV of £1Bn.

MV is currently £286m ( net assets circa £350m?..).

So SP, if contract confirmations, BoD buy ins, underlying/ continuing business etc are to be believed, could be 58.74p on the story boards so far.

I guess we have to wait for H2 reporting before the market gets off the fence but the SP will be well on the way to 50p by then IMHO

Yeah tough times...again lol.

But CPI already executed the transformation and the debt reduction in particular. H2 will have the £45m disposal proceeds in the fcf to offset H1 historical accounting adjustments (echo from H1). On balance, the cfo and the chairman buying suggests a net positive outcome, surely. A bid cant be ruled out if you are a visionary in this industry. Helping out central banks and governments whilst creating value and wealth for stakeholders...£3Bn revenue, 16.5p...

Anyways, a bottle of red wine helps pass the time imho

https://youtu.be/DBzuYNK95sM?feature=shared

Yes. I think Adolpho will be the catalyst for the recovery phase of large enterprise and the capital reinvestment cycle across the public sector. Still think a savvy entrepreneur could catch cpi at a discount. The business model and employee resource way undervalued at 17p imho... £3Bn revenue ffs?

@JG68

No boiled eggs that day LoL.

Writer? I suppose so. Just my own thinking. No forum except CPI. All factual.

Well, not too shabby for a Friday?

CPI reminds me of the time I was doing my private pilots licence and practising low flying near Buckingham. To get back to the airfield, I needed to climb to 1500 feet to pass over a residential area. At 900 feet the plane began to shake. The shaking increased and as it increased, I had to reduce power to maintain control. And then, BANG! An engine rod shot out the engine housing. As you might imagine, the engine and the housing are key to flying, in more than one way.

Stark...it changed the 'visual flight rule' where you use the engine cowling to position the plane to the horizon. Now, the horizon was lost. Power was decreasing and then the engine stopped.... 900 feet...

So, mayday mayday mayday. Open the door for a crash landing. Look for a field and land into the wind. Over electricity pylons and sideways slip to lose height to get into the field over trees. But the nearest field was too short.....and then, bouncing off a downward slope we finally finished upside down in the trees at the end of the field. Wing buckled over my door. Upside down. Fuel from the tank trickling down my back and a hot engine in front. What do you do?

From sh*t this is not good to relief on touching the ground to sh*t as we hit the trees to 'I am not staying in this plane to burn, even if I cause a fire getting out'

Trapped upside down and soaked in fuel, it was like a james bond movie. Put your shoulder to the door and the light metal allow buckled and I fell out into pools of cow sh#t. A herd of curious frightened heifers jumping up and down at the fantastical sight, then chased us down the field and we in shock...

But at the bottom of the field, a team of archeologists working in the next field who saw the plane come down appeared, waving jackets and coats at the heifers. And finally we stopped. The falling and running over. Talking and

explaining and in shock. Drinking their sweetened tea from their flasks eased the shock.

A police helicopter landed to answer the mayday. They were nearby on a training exercise and apologised that they couldnt fly us back to the airfield as all 4 seats were taken. The fire brigade arrived to neutralise any risk of fire and clean up the fuel spillage. An ambulance and local police officers, journalists, passersby all arrived.....

Front page of The sun and The Daily Telegraph, the Local Radio.. A small article...'Plane Pair Safe'... next to a large photograph of Princess Diana in egg and spoon race.

CPI SP crash is the same. Shock, rationalise, accept, reform.

I was back in the air the same day doing a few circuits of the aerodrome in another plane just to get back in the saddle... and believe it or not, a screw in the cowling worked loose. and I looked at my co pilot...WTF!.

He said ' there's plenty more screws in the engine cowling' ...and there are.

There are plenty more screws in CPIs engine cowling.

£1 incoming imho.

'It's currently worth 16.5p'

Oh dont despair.

I remember a cross channel trip, Hamble to Cherbourg. Storm force winds all week, and me worrying in the office all week what to do and the weekend booked and paid for.

But the storm was subsiding....what do you do? What are you gonna do with your weekend? Hang around in the Solent or risk it across the channel?

Well, I risked it. And the winds got stronger.., 12 hours to Cherbourg...So I reefed the sails (shorted them down) and set course on autopilot. But the wind rose, the waves got bigger, the troughs lower.. and innevitably, everyone descended into sea sickness and became completely incapacitated :-(

But the boat was strong, well equipped and could handle the conditions, even if the crew couldnt. Even in the darkest moments there was light....aaah, the night sky, the milky way....a photographic negative of stars above....and storm swells and angry growling waves 3 times the height of your house all night long, below. We were just holding on, belief in a positive outcome and happy ending.

So much water coming over the boat through the night, my sons life jacket automatically inflated. Strobe light flashing, stomach empty from sickness, and a rope and lifeline tying him to the boat. Death is more comfortable than sea sickness in these moments. ( Even Charles Darwin described 5 years on the beagle as 5 years of wretched spewing sea sickness)!

But then landfall. No more rise and fall. Dolphins playing on the bow wave. Bacon, sausage, egg, black pudding and ketchup sandwich on a pontoon. Woohoo!

And then there was the boat in the next pontoon. Sali torn by the storm in their qualifying race for the Fastnet. And their disbelief we had done the crossing for pleasure. Of course, we had no idea. We learn from experience. And then, nonchalent, we bought whole cured legs of pork to bring home as boys trophies. Conquered nature...

So what?

So 16.5 is just nothing.

When you sell. Sell at 25 or 50 or 100.

Whatever the outcome, it is always better to travel than arrive.

In the spirit of transparency, I would swap £1 for that bacon sausage, egg and black pudding sandwich with ketchup. Wow that sandwich was good.

GLA

#Hope noone picks it up for 25p if it's worth a £1.

#CFO

Right now, the central banks are forcing the market to take on higher interest rates and presumably that leads to better allocation versus zero interest rates and non performing loans.

CPI has scrubbed the decks and should be in good shape when the market decides to look forward. CF buying, DWP contract, new digitally savvy CEO all positive. Hope onone picks it up for 25p if it's worth a £1.

Anyways, Boiled egg for lunch and then walk the dog.

GLA

LoL. Yeah just concentrate on making good memories and CPI will come good on its own

Of course the market can all go to cash and then it's a race to get back in.

Reminds me of a night passage from Scillies to Falmouth. 2 safety lines to the boat, an old Swan 38, force 6/7 and an inexperienced crew all fast asleep below. The milky way above, a constellation on the bough and circling the mast tip whilst occasional shoals of fish surface in the silver moonlight. A trail of phosperescence in the wake. Course and speed set. 6 hours tide pushing to the east and 6 hours tide pushing to the west. And a watery dawn, cold air, sound of waves against the hull accentuating the remoteness of the ocean desert and a hot boiled egg for breakfast. Finally arriving in falmouth, heralded by the manacles bell and the rocks where a thousand souls have perished.

300 years ago you could have woken to the same and received a cosh to the head and the kings penny after a boozy night in Plymouth.

Nothing really has changed. Still flip flopping. Just the passage of time that's not easily resolved in a trading or investment strategy but has an ending.

£1 imho :-)

'they keep flipping between just above and just below 19%'

The government regulators call that 'flip flopping'. Its just taking advantage of the peaks and troughs around the average. Caant reconcile 17p with that long term average of 19% using CPI financial performance