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flushfrank, you must be truly flush to want to sell at this price.
Jungla, your scenario actually makes sense. Let's hope that doesn't happen. Does anyone know how much BlackRock paid for their shares? I know that they may have bought them for different amounts but does anyone have a clue about their weighted average share price?
Can someone tell me why the spread keeps getting bigger. I'm sure it was less than 5p when I first bought. Yesterday it was 6p. Today it's 8p. What drives this mechanism?
Darton, that doesn't seem logical. They have 2.1m shares. If the sp drops, their portfolio drops. The only scenario which would make this move rational, would be an imminent takeover. But if a t/a was 'imminent', we'd know about it. I don't think they would take such a risk for a 'possible' takeover. But then, nothing surprises me these days and in particular with this share. Hopefully, someone here will correct me if I'm wrong.
Mr A, the commentary of "An evolution which suggests that the management company has joined the current seller which affects the value for a month, with a decline of more than 13% over the past four weeks." suggests that the sp drop triggered the very small sell based on some algorithmic baseline.
I agree with CRL123 and MilCait - I would't worry about his sale. They still have 2,117,183 shares.
The glass is more than half full.
crl123, thank you for your support. I did find the words "begging" and "flatter" extremely offensive. I won't be apologising for my post to Kaeren - she says it wasn't a dig. I think it was. Her only other post to me was pretty nasty, and only because I had questioned the rationale of having the same PR company as Avacta. Look how the sp has slumped since, while Avacata is flying off the shelf.
Yes, I may be a fool in investing more. But, what the hell. I've lost quite a bit recently and am going for gold (on the losers' bench)! Just thought that by diluting my share price, I may have a better chance of breaking even. I almost didn't post my buy because you'd told me that you couldn't afford to. Sorry mate.
Oh, and one more thing - I'm not a guy. I don't think any man would give himself a name like ScardieCat, even if he was ****ing himself with fear... :)
Darton, thanks for your post. It's sweet of you to want to cheer me up.
Actually, I didn't mind the recent drop in prices. I had bought my original batch at 896.50p and was in two minds as to whether to buy more to bring the total price down or leave it as there was so little information from the company that the price would just go belly up, increasing my losses. So, I made a pact that if the price fell below 673 today, I would buy and if it didn't, I would leave off and just keep my old shares.
As it happens, I bought some more at 670.95p. Huzzah!
I actually think that once our 2020 accounts are published, it'll give a huge boost to our sp. Here's hoping it'll be accompanied by news of a new contract.
Kaeren, I'm sure you've got better things to intrigue you. I don't flatter. But, when I like someone, I make it known. I was impressed by Van's ability to spot this company as a winner very early on. It was only natural that I would ask him for tips of other companies which he thought were going places. I din't expect him to respond but he did, making me like him on top of respecting him already.
Not that it's any of your business, but to give heart to others, I bought another £4,500 of Nova shares today.
If you want to know why I'm here, read my other posts. DYOR.
Apart from the new craze about AVACTA which made a loss of £6.9m in the first half of 2020, I think it doesn't help that on the LSE, it shows Avacta with a market cap of £617.9m and P/E of -0.13 whereas Novacyt is shown with a market cap of £489.4m and P/E of -0.14.
We really need to get the 2020 accounts out and change that P/E ratio. I know you might say that it doesn't matter as people can look at our interim accounts but so much trade is done via algorithms now and p/e is one of the most important pieces of data in that equation.
John 2015, they only sold 15,189 shares yesterday, reducing their holdings from 3.02% to 2.99%. The commentary was a little damning though:
(CercleFinance.com) - BlackRock, the world's number one asset management company, reduced its stake in Novacyt, dropping below the level of 3% of the capital, shows an opinion released by the clinical diagnostics company on Friday.
Novacyt indicates that it was informed yesterday that on March 11 the participation of the New York giant stood at 2,117,183 shares, or 2.99% of the capital and voting rights.
By way of comparison, on January 25, BlackRock's stake in Novacyt amounted to 2,132,372 shares, or 3.02% of the capital and voting rights.
An evolution which suggests that the management company has joined the current seller which affects the value for a month, with a decline of more than 13% over the past four weeks.
The stock still shows a price more than multiplied by 10 over the last 12 months.
crl123,
I love garden swings. Love decent people (and all animals). Love Stan Lee. Love your posts.
'Nuff said.
Have a lovely evening
gggg21, your 19:02 post was the most uplifting information of the day. You should be working for Nova, instead of the useless PR team.
crl123
Your post made me LOL twice :)
I'm still laughing at your comment about manipulation "done in an untraceable un-Hilary Clinton way". Brilliant.
You'd think politicians would be at least as devious as bankers, but they're not. Politicians are in the pockets of bankers, not the other way round. Did you ever see the film 'swimming with sharks'?
I sold my BP shares as soon as they went up over 5%. I've noticed this is what they do. Long-term investment is unfashionable in the UK stock-market.
But, I'm holding on here because, for a change, I could see real potential being appreciated by shareholders who are 'believers'. Unlike GME or Tesla, the belief is not arbitrary.
Your line "I have known such hard times in life that intelligent risk shines brightly in its potential. Burn out not fade away." was poetic - brought a tear to my eyes.
I'm with you all the way. Fear not, whether we find the path to glory or jump off a cliff, you won't walk alone.
crl123, I agree with you that the market can be manipulated. Insider dealings go on all the time. I know this because my ex's friends were all investment bankers. These things don't happen on the trading floor or via emails where people can be monitored. They happen over drinks and dinner.
However, given the volatility of AIM shares in general and diagnostics firms in particular, I'm not surprised that the sp has dropped in the absence of any information on new contracts. It may be that GM is playing a crafty game - although I can't see how this would benefit him or the company. I'm actually beginning to think that maybe the silence is based on the fact that there are NO new contracts as yet. We have a few weeks before all the new money is allocated to various bidders. Once the tender awards come out. we'll know for sure. Until then, it's going to be a nail-biting roller-coaster ride.
You and I are in the same boat. We both bought at just under £9 and have a harder time with it all.
HarChris, glad you came round. An sp rise of 600% over 5 years is not impossible for an innovative company like ours. As you point out, we need more clarification on what is going on. Quarterly updates would be great to settle stakeholders' qualms. It wouldn't do the sp any damage either.
zcec67 - they're not MY numbers. I left a link on my post. It's an opinion by Wallet Investor - one of many, I'm sure...
HarChris -
LOL :) It's no more ambitious than dreaming about an imminent takeover with a price tag of £30 - £50!
For balance, please see below The Motley Fool's prognosis of 24/2/21:
"Based on Novacyt’s expected earnings for 2020, the shares trade on about three times earnings. In my experience, when a company’s stock is rated this cheaply it means the market expects profits to fall.
That’s my view too. The company expects sales of Covid-19 products to be “strong throughout most of 2021.” But there’s little visibility beyond that.
This uncertainty is reflected in the latest forecasts from Novacyt’s house broker, which are available on its website. Earnings are expected to fall by around 17% in 2021, before dropping by around 65% in 2022.
Based on these forecasts, Novacyt’s current share price values the stock on about 12 times 2022 forecast earnings. That seems reasonable to me. But with no visibility on future earnings, it’s not cheap enough to persuade me to buy.
Novacyt’s technology has been a huge commercial and medical success during the pandemic. But without specialist medical knowledge, I’m not sure I can estimate how easily the firm’s will be able to expand into new areas.
For me, investing in a stock like this is too speculative. I won’t be buying, despite the possibility that Novacyt shares might be cheap today."
This might explain the current price???
Just to change the subject a little:
"At Walletinvestor.com we predict future values with technical analysis for wide selection of stocks like Novacyt S.A (NCYT). If you are looking for stocks with good return, Novacyt S.A can be a profitable investment option. Novacyt S.A quote is equal to 693.000 GBX at 2021-03-11. Based on our forecasts, a long-term increase is expected, the "NCYT" stock price prognosis for 2026-03-06 is 4918.780 GBX. With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +609.78%. Your current $100 investment may be up to $709.78 in 2026."
https://walletinvestor.com/lse-stock-forecast/ncyt-stock-prediction
That's yesterday's closing price
Thanks andrbea. I saw it right after asking the question. Weird that HL doesn't have any of the 2020 deals on its website.