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Anders,
I said that the November 2020, which I assumed the company knew more about (as it was awarded more than 5 months ago) would have been built into the sp. As you may have noticed, the company knows a lot of things that we don't know about until they're ready to tell us. But, I feel strongly that the bigger shareholders would have been informed (otherwise why did BR start selling so much?) I'm fully happy to accept that NO-ONE knows what that tender has produced for us, if this is your understanding.
So, when we know how much of that we've got, maybe the sp will go up - it depends on the numbers. Since we don't know, it's anyone's guess what will happen. The same for the new tenders. Until bigger investors can put a price on these tenders, they're not going to react as we do here. I remember how excited we all were about the Versalab and how unmoved the IIs were. I don't want us to make that mistake again. That's all. I bought more shares because of Versalab, and increased my losses threefold.
All I'm saying is that, this time, I want to wait and see what the IIs are doing before I make a commitment again.
Porky,
If you go to the bottom right of the link, you 'll see that all the buys and sells come to an aggregate of 213,527 in red with an arrow pointing down (i.e. 213,527 sales more than buys). To the left of that there's a figure of 3,182,572 which represents the shares still held. The formula (3,182,572 + 213,527) will give you the total shares prior to the movements which would have been (3,396,099) so the change in holding is calculated as (213,527 / 3,396,099) = 6.29% lower if you consider all IIs and MMs. I don't know what the 4.51 stands for. I thought it was the percentage of shares sold over those bought but it isn't - I should have checked this before assuming. It's actually higher at 6.29% instead of the 4.51% which I quoted earlier.
Now, below the figures, there's a bar and if you pull it to the right and go back up, you'll see that BlackRock Smaller Companies Ord has sold 119,877 shares against which you'll see the figure of 25.24% in red with an arrow pointing down, which was the figure which I quoted here earlier.
However, when I checked just now, I saw another 2 holdings by BlackRock which I hadn't noticed earlier. If we take all three holdings, they total 773,615 and the total movements in all three is (-119,877-516+1270) which comes to -119,123. So the total movement is [-119,123 / (773,615+119,123)] = 13.34%
I apologise for not noticing the other two shares. But, the holding is definitely not up - it's down by 13.34% for BlackRock only as opposed to 6.29% for all IIs.
If you have any other queries or comments, please don't hesitate to ask.
troublesome,
After this reply, I'm going to treat you as Lockedandloaded did when you accused him of being a shorter too, which was to ignore you completely.
In fact, I've lost count of how many people you have accused of being a shorter (basically anyone who doesn't sing from YOUR hymn sheet. So, which one of us is paranoid?
This is not Mao's China or Stalin's Russia where anyone that doesn't toe the line has to be punished. People need to talk frankly without you accusing them of being mentally unstable or a shorter or both.
In fact, I've noticed that half of your posts are critiques of other people's posts, either correcting their typos or mocking them or accusing them of being ... (see above). At least, most people know the difference between 'whose' and who's.
You know what they say about critics - those who can't write, paint, act or come up with an original idea, become critics.
Finally, how insecure does a person have to be to put 'LOL' at the end of his own (very unfunny) jokes?
Porky,
I truly wish that I had shorted this share instead of investing half of my savings in it. I don't know why you are so threatened by me. Almost half the people have filtered me because of you and your mates. And this share's biggest deramper is the CEO. Hardly anyone listens to me. I just don't like super-rampers who get people to BUY BUY BUY without producing any factual basis (supported by evidence) for them to do so.
I commended you when you stopped super-ramping and went out of my way to reconcile you with VanV.
I do think that the latest news will get the sp up just like the launch of Versalab did (from 710 to 755). But, for how longs?
I bought more shares at that time instead of selling as I had broken even. What happened after the temporary rise? The sp fell to 400.
There are so many unknowns here that nothing seems to have more than a temporary relief. So, today I remembered that someone had posted the total shareholding link once and that I had book-marked it. I looked to see what had the IIs and MMs done since then and was absolutely shocked at how much they had sold, even though you'd think they's buy give the current sp.
I'm not saying they wont buy from tomorrow but am taking nothing for granted. If you don't want to take any notice of this link, then please ignore the link and filter me by all means. I try to help my fellow Novacytians, especially those who lost huge amounts like me.
Hope that you'll come to see me as I am, and not as some people have portrayed me here because of their own agendas. I have never lied about this share, nor told anyone to sell. You should look back to my old posts when I was just as bullish as you, although I never told people to buy (except some of my friends who, luckily didn't listen to me). But, I'd like to take this opportunity to apologise to all those who HELD here because of me constantly reminding them about the fundamentals, when they were down in the dumps.
I'm going to buy again when the MMs, especially BlackRock (which is still our biggest holder) starts buying again. I genuinely wish you all the best of luck.
Anders,
It's been over 5 months. When will we learn about this? Are any dates given?
Oriens1,
The tender has been awarded to Microgen and Primer but we just don't know how much of the £3B they will get as there's no indication of how the money will be divided. IF divided equally, Novacyt will get £13.4 million a year for the next 4 years. But, until we know exact figures/percentages, it's all based on assumptions.
Everyone here was talking about IIs buying our shares at this low price, and some did, but if you refer to what was actually happening on the link below, you sill see that shareholding by IIs or MMs was reduced by 4.51% from Dec 2020 to 16 April 2021. What's more, our biggest holder, BlackRock has reduced its holding by 25.24%. Until they start buying again, I personally wouldn't make a move. Hope this helps:
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xfra/nyz/ownership
Anders_UK
The £20 billion tender which Microgen won with 145 others was awarded on 2 Nov 2020. So whatever portion Microgen got, was already built into the current sp.
Hydr31,
There was an older gentleman here 2 days before black Friday who had 2 predictions for the sp:
1. if we get the DHSC contract, and
2. if we don't get the DHSC contract
I was trying to find his post, but it seems to have been removed. It's very strange because on the day, he didn't get any flack. I thought it was because he'd been here forever and said neither scenario would leave him in the red. But, others would be affected.
His prediction for the second scenario was £2 to £5
The only person here who's had a similar prediction is BarnetPeter who I think must be some kind of mathematician or statistician. I know people here don't like charts, and I'm going to get a lot of flack for this. But numbers don't lie. 2 + 2 is always 4, no matter how much we'd like it to be £5 or £45.
gggg21's prediction was £64 just before all hell broke loose.
Unless and until we have some good news, I don't think the sp will move from that range.
L&L
Good to see that you have cheered up. You sounded very depressed in your last post.
I have never doubted the company, but have lost total confidence in the CEO's attitude towards the private shareholders.
Still keeping an eye out for some stability in the sp movements and will rejoin once all the see-sawing has been curtailed.
L&L
Sorry to have been so dense. Thanks for providing your email address. I feel honoured that you trust me with it.
I'm very sorry for your loved one with stage 4 cancer. I have a friend in the same situation and she too is made of strong stock as she's been fighting it for 5 years and her only complaint is the pain of chemotherapy which she says is worse than the cancer, but it keeps her alive. I'm really glad the person you care for recovered. I agree, lots of things are more important than money - family, friends, health, integrity and many more. I'm sorry if I sounded materialistic. If you knew me, you would not think that. I won't give examples as it would be crass. I'll stop here and email you later.
L&L
Sorry about the repetition. When I sent the first post, it wasn't published. I thought it might be about the 'guns and tasers' bit. So, I took that bit out and posted again, only to find that the first post had been accepted.
L&L
I googled your link and it led to a Linked-in account. Is that your account? I didn't see any Yorkshire peaks there so wasn't sure. I don't have a Linked-in account so can't message you there. I don't like social media - this board is as far as I will go. Apparently, you misspelled the name of your favourite place for a walk, so you're now under suspicion. I copied and pasted your spelling when I referred to it so, allegedly we are the same person!
Before you get the proofreader general on your back again, you also misspelled taser! You really should rethink opening a premium account so we can talk to 'ourselves' without offending others. I have to get back to work now but will be back this evening. I hope you don't get trolled too much till then.
L&L
I googled smhargreavesltd@hm.com and it led to a Linked-in account. Is that your account? Didn't see any Yorkshire peaks there so wasn't sure. I'm not on Linked-in so can't message you there. I don't like any form of social media. This board is as far as I will go. Just wanted to say that I was just listening to the news and now understand your comment about women needing "to work out what a gun is and what a tazor is!!!" What a pathetic excuse for killing a young man. You'd think she would know the difference after 28 years on the force!
Apparently you have misspelled the name of your favourite walking place and now under suspicion. I copied and pasted your spelling when I referred to it, so now we're allegedly the same person! Before you get the proofreader general on your back, you also misspelled taser!
I have to get back to work now but you should really rethink opening a premium account. That way we can talk to 'ourselves' without offending anyone!!!
I'll be back this evening. I hope you don't get trolled too much till then.
L&L
I missed the Grand National this year. Where did Cloth Cap end up? Last or in the middle range? It may a be clue to how your prediction will fair. You misunderstood me. I'm not from oz. When I said 'here in the land of oz' I was referring to the Wizard of Oz :)
Well, in that case £5.50 is a possibility seeing as it could happen in the next century. I think it will happen sooner or later but my problem with this sp is its reliability. I wouldn't mind waiting years if the sp didn't keep yoyoing. I bought this share for keeps as one for my retirement fund. But the see-saw action had caused me to spend too much time here while it fell and fell some more. I think we need to get off AIM and wondering whether I should wait till a takeover by a large firm happens and buy their shares. Even if I have to pay more, it would be nice not to have to come back to this board and check 20 x a day (as one shareholder who sold today, put it). Totally agree with you about fundamentals and PR.
I googled Pennyghent during the lull - nice to have a straight-talking Yorkshire man who says it as it is.
Good night L&L - I'm off to the land of oz. Hope to speak to you soon.
L&L,
LOL, how many drinks have you had?! My own alcohol uptake has gone up quite a bit since the last RNS...
You're very welcome. I hope I'm invited to the V&P nuptials after all my mediation efforts last night, but I'm not holding my breath on that.
I was hoping that you'd give a negative forecast on the odds of a positive RNS, seeing as you were wrong last time, but I guess they haven't tied the knot as yet. When they do, I'm buying back the shares I sold on Black Friday.
I don't have a premium account either but thinking of getting one so that I can just DM those who have shown an interest in my posts, few as they might be! It would also be nice to communicate with people of like minds without upsetting others. You never know - there may be people there who know more but don't post here given how informative posts are targeted by trolls and quickly removed.
I won't be re-posting my 8:03 post here again. I hope you don't mind. If you want to read it, you'll have to give me an email address.
It's brave of you to post your penultimate sentence. Let's see if you get as many negative responses as I do :) I bet you won't.
For full disclosure, I'm not a man, regardless of one person in particular refusing to believe it! I don't know why anyone would lie about their gender but then, she made it clear that she didn't believe ANYTHING I say. I guess it was a good way of weaving her/his own narrative about me, and it seems to have worked.
Now that you've been nice to me, I think you're going to get a DM from her/him. Many people have and ended up turning against me. I hope you won't buy the alternative narrative. If you'd seen the 8:03 post, you'd know why this is such a clever ploy.
Lockedandloanded,
If I had a very busy life, I wouldn't be sitting here for hours on end, looking for a scrap of good news.
You're forgiven. Thank you for the apology - so refreshing on this board.
I can only imagine how you must feel, not taking advantage of the spikes. I only bought after those and I too regret it, but many of us fell in love with this company and now feel like jilted lovers.
Apologies for assuming you were a man - it's the reference to guns in your name, again assuming that guns are more favoured by men, which is of course biased.
Yes, I did go to bed shortly after your last comment. I hadn't slept a wink the night before.
I have to say your posts today really cheered me up, particularly your remark about the chances of a takeover being:
"I’d say there would be more chance of Vanv and Porky merging for marriage:)"
Hilarious :) But, judging by the comments today, I think they have reached a truce. So, who knows?!! Anything is possible in Nova land. Now, let's see your odds on a positive RNS that doesn't tank the sp. :)
Re. my post of 8:03 yesterday, do you have a premium account so I can DM it? I don't want to upset people here - informative facts are rarely welcomed by the majority here and I could use a day on which I don't get abusive comebacks.
Lockedandloaded,
Sorry again for the late reply. I have to work for a living so often have to read posts at night. For a number of weeks I was here all day long and doing my work at night and weekends. This stock can send you mad sometimes. I've stopped doing that now and back to more sane working hours.
Re. your comment:
"I missed your 08:03 post, I didn’t hear the front door:) Please resend if I’m in the good books."
do you mean MY good books regarding your ungentlemanly post? Then sure. As I said, this share in general and some people on this BB, in particular can drive anyone crazy.
Please confirm if you still want to see my posting of 8:03 am yesterday. I never know where people stand with me at any particular time.
Good evening L&L
I'm sorry for the late reply - I was working all day. I was pulling your leg about your post. I knew exactly what you meant. Didn't you see the smiley face? Some people here are so ready to take offence and criticize. I'm not one of them.
I like your analogy with the RNSs especially those produced here, which always leave you more confused and in the dark than before you read them (and that's really saying something)! One minute the RNS is a catastrophe which wipes nearly half the sp, the next it's a work of genius and we have a TO in the bag.
Yeah, I noticed Porky's turn around. Wonders never cease in the world of Nova. Did you see my 8:03 am post? I knew it would have a short shelf-life as my posts are often removed for being 'disruptive'. Here in the land of oz truth and information are disruptive. You need to fall in line or have your posts removed. If you did read my post it would go some way to explaining the 180 degree turnaround. Did you?
Morningsun,
I totally agree with everything you said. I don't know if you've watched the Big Bang Theory. Basically it's 'anything can happen Thursday' or was it Tuesday? So many unknowns here:
- what is the legal dispute about ?
- why couldn't it be resolved?
- if the Q4 profits have to be revised, how much do they have to be revised by?
- what are 2021 forecasts?
- if we have 50% of our sales from the ROW, are these ongoing contracts or one-offs?
- is there ANYTHING that we can rely on (given that GM's announcement re. 2020 results need revising now)?
Despite all these unknowns, the rampers here were posting all day till market close, telling people to BUY BUY BUY. There were over 200 post by 8am! all of them ramping in such hurry that many of them even forgot the usual caveat 'IMO'. Despite so many rampers saying they bought xxxx shares and xxxxxx shares and the big buys by IIs, the share price has ended 4.72% down from Friday's sp. You have to wonder if they really were buying or 'pumping and dumping'. Why is it that Diamond Horse keeps thanking rampers for their 'pump & dump' on Twitter? See my earlier post for the link.
Given that none of the predictions that these rampers have assured us about (remember someone's insistence that the next RNS from BR would be an increase to 5% holding but turned out to be a reductions to 2.99% and another on its heel declaring reduction to 2.89%), why do people still believe anything they say? FOMO is an excellent motivator. All IMO.
L&L,
You make very interesting points. So, do you think that £5.50 is a fairer price given everything? You may be right, but without any numbers we're just speculating again. We're also speculating about the legal 'dispute'. The wording of the RNS points to a breakdown of negotiations, as many here have said. Why else announce such a thing to the world? My barrister friend said that most (but not all) disputes get settled on the day they are due in court, at the very last minute. But, it could drag on and most likely, do damage to our reputation. IMO.
When you say "to put it in perspective I’m saying NCYT relies on the virus to grow as the company grows!!", are you suggesting that we should mingle more closely and travel to red zones to help the company???!!! :)
As far as ODDO is concerned, why do you think GM hired them to deramp us?