Member Info for scardey_cat

You will never be accused of being articulate dan.

Chamberlin up 15% today. Trevor's next P&D well underway.

Just noticed a relatively new tender for test validation services. Are Porton Down being sidelined?

https://health-family-contract-search.secure.force.com/servlet/servlet.FileDownload?retURL=%2Fapex%2FProSpend__CS_ContractPage&file=00P4J00000HBRugUAH

Section 4 shows a completely new protocol for test validation.

The full tender is here:

https://health-family-contract-search.secure.force.com/ProSpend__CS_ContractPage?SearchType=projects&uid=a074J000007Fu0iQAC&searchStr=&sortStr=Recently+Published&page=1&filters=

The reply is the funniest part:

Starknight: "James Sharpe has PURCHASE 10,000 SHARES IN BRAVEHEART.. GOOD NEWS !!!

Benster: "You utter idiot - he's sold"

Sisu, sounds like someone just stuck it in too far on a few occasions.

I'd settle for that InfinisandBeyond.
Makes you wonder though, are this govt capable of such nuanced thinking? I have my doubts :-)

beinthelead:
"What benefit would there be in using two tests?"

Not saying it will be two tests, but since you asked.

- Having a best in class 'S' protein test and a best in class 'N' protein test may be seen by govt as covering all bases re: VOC
- Going with just the Avacta test would mean quite a delay (3 months?) re: TT to ODX. Do the govt want to wait 3 months to fully utilise this reserved capacity (which you would expect is a sizeable portion of their total reserved capacity).
- In terms of the 'use case' of frequent/regular testing, are the govt that bothered about a few percent on sensitivity? Will they consider a test that is 96.4% @ ct<25 good enough for certain use cases?

Finally, I'm invested in both companies and it's the best outcome for me :-)

They're both good tests. Avacta wins on sensetivity 100% at ct<27 vs Mologic 96.4% at ct<25.
Avacta tested against 98 positive samples vs Mologic 194 positive samples (so, twice as many in Mologic sensitivity study).
Mologic wins on read time...10 mins vs Avacta 20 mins (though Avacta does give a reliable read at 10 mins).

I see a case for two sovereign tests. Avacta best in class 'S' protein and Mologic best in class 'N' protein. From the govt point of view, this gives them some cover regards mutations. If a variant escapes the 'S' test, it might not escape the 'S' test, for instance.

"Nearly 7 times the sample size of a certain other test..."

I'm invested in both shares Regulator, but have to correct you on that point. Avacta sample size was 200, not 100.
98 positive and 102 negative samples.

"What do you reckon? I just found it an extremely odd thing to say that we’d have a range of capacity based on govt decisions if we’re not central to it."

I just take the 5+25 to mean, 5m nailed on contracted capacity for Avacta, plus 25m capacity if we are chosen as the sovereign test by the govt. It's encouraging that AS actually mentions the 30m total. That indicates to me that he must feel he's in with a good shot, otherwise it would be misleading to mention it at all.

Probably reading more into this than I should, but interesting that Omega use 'tests' plural in their tweet: -

"Could there be interesting times ahead for the manufacturers of gold-standard ultra-rapid Lateral Flow Tests? "

Maybe there will be two sovereign tests after all...Avacta + Mologic.

@jdt "Avct was 100/99" - good point, yes, no doubt Avacta is a superior test. Just getting my head around use case criteria.

@PL I'm coming around to the idea of two LFT use cases also. One, where you're not too bothered about ct>25 and the other where you need a nailed on result regardless of CT value. Will be interesting to see how it all pans out. Can't wait to read the book at the end of all this...as I think you said a few weeks ago.

"The clinical performance of AffiDx is far better. Look at the drop off past 25Ct. It’s dramatic."

If the govt and scientists accept that 25ct is the limit of infectiousness, then there is no disadvantage in the drop off above ct25. One could argue that the perfect LFT identifies 100% up to ct25 and 0% above that. If an LFT is identifying positives at ct35, for instance, what use is that if it's accepted that any person above ct25 is not infectious? We are then getting into the realms of LFT being too sensitive as is the case with PCR.

@hants
So, up to CT 25, Mologic S&S is 96.4/100, whereas Avacta S&S is 98/99.

I'd say the two tests are not a million miles apart for CT<26 and do we really care about sensitivity above CT26, given that the use case for LFT is to identify infectious people.

Wouldn't surprise me if the govt go for best in class S protein (Avacta) and best in class N protein (Mologic). This would give them some flexibilty regards mutations, whilst they await a combined SN test from the two companies. Also, if they went for the two tests, there'd be no TT delay...GAD ready to go with Avacta, ODX ready to go with Mologic.

Can open spread bets again on Avacta @ IG. Should help things along a bit.

Not really the way to demonstrate that you are supporting the great British diagnostics industry. Bloody criminal, I'd say.

Handjob not so keen to open the cheque book. So much for govt contracts!

"The Company has still not been able to establish from the DHSC when the outstanding debts in relation to this contract will be paid, as well as other monies owed in relation to the procurement of components on the DHSC's behalf by Abingdon. As at 27 April 2021, Abingdon has outstanding invoices with the DHSC totalling £6.7m (including VAT) with monies being overdue by between 79 and 135 days. This includes £5.15m (including VAT) for the 1 million AbC-19™ rapid tests which were delivered by early January 2021 and are currently being used by the DHSC within the UK Biobank study. So far as the Board is aware there is no contractual basis for the DHSC to withhold payment on products they have accepted and are using. As such, the Board continues to seek resolution to this matter. If the outstanding and overdue sums are not paid in the short-term, then Abingdon may need to reduce its cost base. As at 26 April 2021 the Company's cash balance was £7.7m."

There's scope for a brand new bus service here Richob...the 'People in the Know' service. Stopping at Alva (BigJock), Whetherby (Sujood) and Porton Down (Derekshf)...all aboard!

Staying loyal? It's Avacta PLC, not AVACTA FC, Rolly.

In that event, PL, his credibility will finally be shot, as too will the SP.

* I've seen hints of the latter personality trait, but none of the former