Member Info for Scampthedog

Rico Back has the perfect solutions for transforming Royal Mail into a highly efficient and highly profitable business...but at what price? Could any of you, in all fairness, sit down at your dining table tonight, look across at your families, and say to yourself: to hell with 30 to 40,000 redundancies... I am only interested in the return on my shares? Because, like it or not -- thats what Mr Backs plans amount to!! He wants to get rid of the USO anchor that greatly drags on the company and prevents it from sailing at full steam. Take for instance delivering competitors mail: abolish the USO and the Royal Mail would no longer have to do that. Also Royal Mail would more than likely want to get rid of the "first class mail" service. This is a big imposition on the resources of the Royal Mail. If you could witness the mayhem and panic every night of the week as highly stressed managers and whipped staff battle to ensure it does not fail...then you would perfectly understand what I mean. But what would this all mean for the workforce? Quite simply -- 20,000 posties gone at a stroke!! The new hubs alone may also account for another 10,000 jobs losses...and you can go on and on. A more efficient, profitable Royal Mail - yes! But ask yourselves: at what great personal cost? Would any of you fight for not just your jobs but also your families survival -- you bet your sweet arse you would!!!!!!

This is a real mess! I personally suspect that the Royal Mail executives have now, once again, due to the company's deeper pockets... thus ensuring availability to the best London lawyers (the Cwu never learn - lol) managed to get themselves the other side of Christmas without the CWU being able to lawfully call a strike due to the muddled and highly convoluted dispute process -- clever!! But even if they do...the massive underlying problems will not just go away. This s.p will, unless agreement can be reached on all issues, now be at the mercy of all those on-going grievances...something that could take an awful long time to sort out.

Basically, as explained in the video, the grievances are, at present, concerned with two different parties the RMG posties at large and Parcelforce employees...but within the RMG it is again broken into at least two other issues; the extra hour that was due this October is also a seperate issue. Royal Mail are doing there very best to delay any possibility of a strike by refuting some of the grievances and also disagreeing with the interpretation of some of the former "Four Pillars" agreement. For example here is part of the former agreement refering to the extra hour off the working week that the posties were due to receive sometime this October. Section 12 of the 2018 agreement: "The funding formula for the second hour will include a joint evaluation of inflation as of the 1st April 2019, any implementation of changes from the trials...on-going efficiency, and other operational technological changes. The shorter working week forum will review progress for plans to achieve the above objectives ensuring they are on track and put corrective actions in place where not". Quite a mouthful! And, obviously, open to much self-interested interpretation. And, in a nutshell, that is the main problem: it just depends on what side of the fence you stand...and how you interpret it to suit your own purpose(s).

Cannot understand why you cannot get the video to play, JBTHISTLE...I have just watched it only five minutes ago.

Oh...and I am still waiting for the answer to my previous question. Thanks again.

Just popping out for a Costa...but before I go here is a question for all you "experts" (especially Redceo) on the ongoing RMG/CWU issues. What is the present ongoing mediation concerned with at this present moment in time? That should be easy enough. Let us start a "real" discussion not engage in mindless, juvenile banter. Oh...by the way, Redceo, three questions for you. What is your favourite boyband? Are you shaving yet? And do you still wear shorts? Cheers!

..........................still waiting.

Cannot understand all of the hostility here directed at falkland? He is just taking a punt. A punt, you know...like betting on a two horse race. What is hard to understand about that? If the strike happens then he gets his 1.70 -- or better even! If the strike is averted he does'nt. Which one of you people can not understand that? Its not even worth a discussion. Any normal adult who has never dabbled in stocks in their entire life could understand this. But, apparently...not some of you on here. Get a grip!!

Short answer, Qd22 -- reassurance! The age old primeval instinct of "flocking together"...a rather questionable sense of "it won't happen to me because I am in a crowd". Admittedly there is some degree of truth to this. As for your previous question concerning whether I am shorting IQE: no I am not...I have never shorted stocks -- best left to the pros. Cheers!

Good point, JBTHISTLE. I too have just looked on Facebook...no update as of yet. To me this suggests they are making some progress....wondering myself if they have found some common ground and have extended yesterdays session into today also. Keep an eye on that share price...a sudden upturn might suggest that those in the know have heard a little whisper or two. Whichever way you look at it I am sure it has to be a positive sign.

Oh, and judging by the way the share price is falling, due to he increasingly greater sell off, I should imagine the markets are anticipating that the hat is about to be passed around again. No chance of that either -- at any price!! So it does make one wonder: where is all the much needed money going to come from then?

I am invested in both companies, RobinHood69...but I do not see this making much difference in the grand scheme of things to improving Haydale's chances of survival. To little far to late.

Agreed, Fruitster. But it did'nt take a genius from any walk of life, never mind a financial one, to see what effect the threat of a possible strike could have on the Royal Mail share price. And before I depart for my pre-shift nightshift nap just let me leave you with this thought: the posties do not have to undertake a total walkout, more of that in a minute, all each postie would have to do, when instructed by their union rep, is not turn in for one shift in each week...this way they keep earning the majority of their pay. In less than a week the whole system would come to a grinding halt!! By remaining at work in numbers on the floor they also act as watchdogs. They cannot prevent Royal Mail from bringing in any agency workers but bear this in mind: to operate the dock leveling, to work as a yard marshal, to operate forklift trucks, scuds, pallet movers, york movers and york pushers you have to be trained...and hold all the relevant licences. Also the inductions: yes, they have Angard...but they would need many, many more agency -- and they would all have to be inducted. And guess who would be watching to make sure the managers did not infringe upon the health and safety regulations and the LAW? Yes -- you guessed it -- the posties!! All earning money...and all laughing their rocks off as not only does the s.p go to hell in a hand-basket -- but everything else around it!! And as for a total walkout? I do not want to even put my mind there...no sir I do not. Like I stated previously: MAD: Mutually Assured Destruction!!!!! Good afternoon to you all.

One thing we all agree on, JBTHISTLE: in the next 6-8 years these shares "could" ( barring further union disputes -- highly likely!) be worth considerably more than £2.00 a share. Lets us all hope! But do not think it will be all plain sailing. Any technology will always be regarded as a threat to job security by the workforce in any industry (naturally)...and the Royal Mail workforce is no exception. There is much troubled water to pass under many bridges yet, JBTHISTLE...much, much troubled waters. Cheers!

And most importantly bear the most obvious thing in mind: if professional traders and big financial institutions thought this s.p would hit just £4.00 per share anytime in 2020 you would, in spite of the threat of a truly devastating strike (the effects of which most of you cannot even possibly envision} not be able to buy these shares at the price they are now -- they would be far higher! But, of course, if you think that you all know better than the vast majority of the worlds markets...then go ahead -- fill your boots!! Just remember: if the strike comes (and there is, in all fairness, a good chance it can still be averted) than this share price will not be worth £2.00 a share. It will be a lot lower!!!

And going back to that share price, JBTHISTLE...just to put things in some sort of proportion: at present, Royal Mail generate 63% of yearly revenue from parcels -- in five years time they "expect" (lovely use of the word "expect" that!) yearly revenue from parcels to be 70%. Does'nt sound so grandiose and dramatic when you say it like that does it. Thats an average of 1.4% growth each year over five years. Actually, in all reality, it obviously starts at less than the 1.4 percent as its an expected year on year growth. Either way it certainly does'nt have much of an impact when stated like this. By the way...not my words -- Rico Backs!

At one time I had over 10,000 shares...missed out on the 6.30 but got 5.90 if I recall. That was due to pure dumb luck not due to any high degree of market savvy or brilliant deduction. Unfortunately, like an idiot, I decided, in my great wisdom to hold onto a couple of thousand...got about 6000 again now. I am not happy, obviously, with the reversal in price...but it has afforded me the opportunity to bring my average down more than just considerably.

Are you seriously suggesting that with a billion shares in circulation and at the added cost of £1.8 billion pounds to overhaul the complete infrastructure of the Royal Mail Group at large that the share price will almost triple in value in the next 3 - 15 months? Surely you are jesting...are you not?

I might be. But if I was...what does that have to do with my question: what has Redceo been right about so far? And what about his ridiculous ramping of £5.50 a share by "sometime" next year? Is that a sensible position to take? The man is spouting complete nonsense!!

Still waiting.