Member Info for Scampthedog

"Why are gls working conditions for the employees an embarrasment to cwu? As far as I'm aware they have no members that work for gls."

If either of you cannot see the answer to this question then I am not going to all the trouble of having to explain it to you both.

I notice you did not reply to all the other comments I made regarding RMG,s debt?

In any case...a cordial good evening to you both.

Nobody is disputing Royal mail is not, at this moment that is, managing its debt responsibly...or indeed does not have facilities to handy amounts of credit; although no company would want to be forced to have no other recourse but to avail themselves of it.

The comments below sum it all up for me.

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Royal Mail had liabilities of UK£1.99b due within 12 months and liabilities of UK£793.0m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had UK£236.0m in cash and UK£1.21b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total UK£1.33b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of UK£1.95b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

If those present lenders start to get twitchy...then the sale of GLS might become inevitable.

A much more preferable option in most investors and shareholders minds than a dilution of the stock.

If that happened you would be lucky to get much more than a pound a share at present values.

And don't think for one moment the sale of GLS would not or could not happen: all the institutional investors (Kretinsky particularly) would be very, very happy about it...and the greater part of the small private investors also.

You can, without a doubt, add the CWU to that list: the pay and terms and conditions of GLS employees are an embarrassment to the CWU...how they would love to distance themselves from it all I am quite sure of it.

Plenty of businesses operate within the bounds of a certain amount of healthy debt, 200iq...the trick is to make sure you have it all covered. Royal Mail don't.

Royal Mail generate plenty of turnover before tax and interest...but not so much after all that which needs to be then deducted.

The last thing (the very, very last thing in fact) we, as shareholders, would want is a share dilution, a fund raise, to help finance RMG's grand aspirations.

And those aspirations are most certainly going to cost a very large amount of money by any calculation.

More than RMG has available.

I don't disagree with the sentiment you are expressing in your remarks; in business though, just as, indeed, it is true in all aspects of life, we cannot always go down the much preferred route.

Sometimes we have very little latitude when making our decisions. And it may well be that RMG have very little choice in the near future concerning the possible sale of GLS.

It may be the only way forward without incurring huge, crippling debt.

We don't always get to have our cake and eat it.

Kassam, "Break up and asset strip seems more than likely now, certainly would not surprise me".
Why do you think that would happen? Do you seriously think that the RM BoD (or UK government for that matter) would allow that to happen. Do you not think that there are legal protections in place to prevent that from happening?

Oligarch, it is looking more and more likely that GLS WILL be sold off. Why? Because Royal Mail is in a hole financially; and will be in an even bigger one with or without a deal with the CWU...and any deal, good or bad, is going to cost an awful lot of money.

As for the government: why would they intervene if RMG attempted to sell off GLS? What would it possibly have to do with them?

Not only could GLS be sold off but further asset stripping like selling off depots and leasing them back might also take place...or just selling off depots and moving on. Or even selling off more chunks of land to developers...which is what happened in the case of the Nine Elms site.

Again, nothing to do with the government...nor would they care less for that matter.

The only thing, in the short to medium term at any rate, that the government would be concerned with would be the core UK business and its commitment to the present USO...and one also has to mention that the structure of that existing USO will undoubtedly have to change in the very near future. And most absolutely will!

The government of this moment most certainly would not bail out Royal Mail if it was teetering on the edge of insolvency...not with all its millions of assets: land, buildings, GLS and other foreign investments. Again -- why should it?

Before any Tory government handed out millions in financial aid to RMG to prop up its ailing infrastructure it would insist it used some of its many assets to support itself.

Stop thinking like a militant dinosaur, Oligarch...you are too intelligent for that.

The figure of £250, 000, 000 is that which was stated by "This is Money"...it is not my figure simply quoted from off the top of my head.

Basic maths: 250, 000, 000 / 131, 000, 000 = £1.90.

If his average is indeed somewhat lower it simply further re-endorses my argument: why not sell all the way down from £2.20?

Until we see an RNS stating that he is actually doing just that, then you are simply guessing. You may well be right of course...but as of yet we do not know this.

And yes, Isleworth...it is now touching Autumn. Or it will be next week.

Kretinsky, Royal Mails biggest shareholder, has, according to "This is Money", spent £250, 000, 000 buying his stake.

That would make his average at least £1.90 a share.

Makes one wonder why he did not sell at £2.20 a share.

Thought-provoking is it not?

cometh the man! An RNS is not so far away...and sooner than later, methinks.

Big trouble coming from a lot of disgruntled CWU members if they don't get that extra hour wolves...or, alternatively, perhaps get compensated for it. And the shorts know all of this of course.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.......

Look for Kretinsky to buy more stock again at 1.68. Hopefully.

zzzzzzzz.......

Finally found time to watch the CWU update on Facebook all through in its entirety.

Undoubtedly...trouble is coming.

The CWU leadership have now accomplished what they set out to do at the onset of this long and bitter two year dispute: get themselves a seat at the table where the executive decisions will be discussed and agreed upon.

Fair play to the CWU for that...it is, after all, only what every good union should strive to do.

However, therein lies a huge fundamental obstacle.

Although the CWU leadership concedes that the company must change and now adapt to the ever challenging demands of an ever evolving deliveries market, and change quickly at that...they are still clinging to same old belief, with its archaic , outdated restraints, in the traditional obligations of the existing USO. Understandable...this is, obviously, the best way of protecting jobs.

This will not be, unfortunately, in my humble opinion, the views of the major shareholders...and one in particular I might well add.

Stuart Simpson and the Board could well be coming around to brokering some sort of muddled compromise with the Union...but, if they do, the market will see right through it. I suspect this is already exactly what the market does think...in general, least ways.

I reiterate what I have been saying repeatedly for sometime now...everything here hangs upon Kretinsky.

If he keeps on buying...it won't matter a bean what the CWU and the Board decide. It won't matter a bean because the present Board will no longer be in place!

Good luck to all long term investors here...whomever you should be. See you all in the Autumn -- cheers!

Oh yes, Isleworth, I got my £200.00 allright...but then I deserved too.

Not unlike the many dozens upon dozens in my immediate area alone who also got the 200.00...but for sitting at home laughing at the rest of us whilst we were working our b0ll0cks off.

After 8 weeks of it I was totally knackered!!

Cannot say the same for those who decided to sit it out. And you talk about hypocrites!! The only hypocrites were the workshy idle loungers who were once again abusing the very generous sick pay RMG generously provides whilst refusing to work and at the same time openly laughing at the rest of us.

What a great idea! Pay everyone a bonus whether they contributed or not. Well, you know what a lot of people are going to do next time don't you?

Yes...quite right. Do the bl00dy same!

And if anyone wants to argue with me about the hard reality of the situation concerning other big players in the field of delivery...then go ahead.

Because unlike you other, far longer serving posties...I have actually worked for some of them. And that includes the likes of Amazon.

Progressive? The CWU would not understand the simplest definition of the word.

You long serving RMG employees have lived in a closeted and privileged environment with terms and conditions far and way above of that which is the norm outside in the real world. Far above!

Nobody is deriding you for any of this...rather just asking you all to wake and acknowledge the fact that it is now a completely different world than what it was even five short years ago.

God forbid if Kretinsky is getting ready to launch an assault on the company...because if he is, Broch, the CWU will feel like a tonne of brick has come down on them.

Wishing everyone a very good night! Duty calls.

If Stuart Simpson, or anyone else stupid enough for that matter, thinks he can jolly the CWU and the posties down along a certain route by means of a £2oo payment...then they are sadly mistaken.

If Simpson turns out to be nothing more than an appeaser...then the inevitable will happen: somewhere down the rocky road in a year or two from now the squabbling, recriminations and loud, unreasonable demands will be heard yet once again.

Negotiate hard, Mr Simpson, now! Because if you don't demand a well-balanced and progressive deal that results in fairer workloads for all, a complete revision of the sick pay procedure and the need for more individual accountability (make that a lot more!) then it may well be (and one shudders at the thought of this) that someone else far less sympathetic might be telling the CWU exactly what they are going to do...and not through negotiation either.

This union has this one chance, and last chance at that, to accept a newly established, hard fact of life: an ever changing and increasing pace of living where customers demand their goods are delivered asap, not in a couple of days time or at the first available opportunity...but now, right now. They want to be able to track it all the way from the vendor to their front door...and they want a greater inbuilt flexibility within that system to cope with sudden and unexpected changes in their own personal circumstances.

RMG is standing at the precipice. Both it and the CWU accept the dire reality of the situation...or in we all go. Simple as that.

Every single word wolvesposty has put on this page tonight is absolutely spot on...and I mean "every single word".

Both Mr Ward and Mr Pullinger, as if they would need reminding, will have been gleefully told by Mr Simpson: "deal with us...or deal with someone representing a hostile takeover bid. Its your choice, boys!"

Stuart Simpson? What have they got to do with Kretinsky buying in?

Answer -- zero!!

Kretinsky does not give a tinkers toss for the union...nor for Stuart Simpson and all the board for that matter.

Either he is, at some point, and soon, going to start selling off big tranches (and if he does then the s.p is most definitely f..k.d!!!) or he is in this for the long term...and for reasons he alone only truly understands and knows.

As for the union, the board, and any update or agreement...why should he care? Any or all of that would have been taken into consideration, after much deliberation I might add, before he ever bought into RMG in the very first place.

He would have been very aware of every single facet of what he was intending to take on...and that includes the CWU and it s consistent and past history of ruling the roost.

Problem is...there is now a bigger rooster in town. And it might just be he is about to start crowing. We will soon find out what he is all about...with or without any positive update or threats of industrial action.

Like I said -- he won't give a tinkers toss!!

Kretinsky is drawing a line in the sand.

But we still don't know why.

But this might well have something to do with it: "somethings afoot, i think he wants GLS, or at least have enough of a holding to be able to steer any split as he wants".

Least ways, I agree with the sentiment of your comment, CrystalBallBroke.