Member Info for Scampthedog

I work nights.

Last evening, after one of our crew rang in to confirm his positive coronavirus test, at least six staff walked straight out.

They join the other half dozen who are refusing to return to work...and at least four others who are badly ill with it.

Speaking to a driver this morning, he told me that he had just returned from a certain depot (which I will not mention here) that only has approximately 50 full-time employees working at present out of what would normally be about 130 --

Mind boggling!!

This stock is now coming back down to earth -- fast!!

Investors are becoming painfully aware of two immutable truths here: A; sky-high revenues does not necessarily mean sky-high profits, B; more and staff missing from work means more agency to cover = greater expense.

I believe in what Royal Mail are trying to achieve regarding a parcel orientated business. Who could not in all reality? But it will not happen in 2021...or not even 2022 for that matter.

Lots of turbulent waters to pass under the old creaky bridge yet, methinks.

And that is without all the drama to come regarding the CWU's outlook on all of everything.

And that drama is coming...without a shadow of a doubt...with or without the union leaderships blessing.

this looks like profit taking to me. Kretinsky perhaps?

Always best to get in first.

Oh and incidentally: £6.30 in 2021? Really!?

Ha, ha, haaaa!!

I laugh out a loud every time that one comes to mind.

There could well be a split coming in the CWU membership...there is, I believe, a good deal of disgruntlement.

I remarked quite a while back now that both Ward and Pullinger (especially Ward) might come under attack from certain factions within the CWU.

Looks like I might be right. Time will tell.

Yes I think it is.

So then, £6.31 in 2021, Redceo?

Ha, ha, haaaa!!! Oh Lord! Whatever.

You insisted, sometime ago, in 2019, for £6.00 a share for 2020...if you can think back that far that is.

That in itself was funny enough, and I did tell you at the time that I was never going to let you forget about it....but £6.31 for 2021?

Lets just concentrate on your first prediction shall we:"£6.00 in 2020".

No chance!!

66 DAYS... AND COUNTING.

MrNation, you have now attained the status of: "Fully Confirmed Ramper!"

I would not mind so much but you are anything but subtle in the manner which you attempt to go about it.

Why is it that you quite often insist on using the same "Heading" time and time again when it obviously suits your purpose?

Perfect examples: as to all your latest contributions over the past several days all headed with the same title: "RE: Shorts down further".

Shorts down further? You know full well that since you have been repeatedly using that tired and worn out old heading the short position has in fact increased on two separate occasions from somewhere round about 2.21 -- to 2.29 -- to 2.40.

Why persist on trying to give the impression to the gullible and uninformed that the shorts are still reducing when this, quite evidently, is not the case?

And as for your foresight and acumen...what of it?

Everyone could see that as long as the CWU and RMG were talking, and as long as the pandemic persisted...and then grew back in strength again (resulting in an obvious increase in revenue) coupled with the short positions closing (not to forget the big investment by Kretinsky...further buoying up the s.p) that this stock was bound to rise in value.

It does not need you yourself to persistently come onto this thread with your wearisome, uninformative, nonsensical cliches.

Try writing something original and of interest now and again...then people like me might just give you a little more credence.

I will settle for that today.

Unfortunately, as I write, after just checking the short position I see it has increased back up yet once again.

Now stands at 2.40%.

I was starting to believe that they had made their profits over the last two weeks or so and might have now been in the process of closing. Apparently not.

Cannot find much wrong with your reasoning, GMHK...but just a couple of points regarding the present s.p...

1. In the last couple of days it has been reported that Kretinsky is more than content with the present direction RMG board is taking regarding the USO and the acceleration towards more automation for the quickly growing and burgeoning parcels market. That is the best endorsement we, as shareholders, could have hoped for.

2. If Royal Mail can successfully tender for the government's "Moonshot" contract (reputedly worth three quarters of a billion pounds over a couple of years) then this will be a massive "shot in the arm" for the finances and fortunes of the company...it will in fact wipe out, at a stroke, the much heralded daily losses RMG are supposedly showing.

Now for the bad news.

1. I totally agree with your view that the s.p might progressively continue to fall further down...and yes 2.27 would seem a reasonable guess; and if it does not hold at 2.27 then certainly 2.13 or 2.15 might be on the cards...regrettably.

2. I base this on the short position: at this moment in time showing as 2.29%.
I, myself, am rather disappointed at that...having seen how the share price has reacted over the last two weeks I was hoping they might have made their profits and reduced their position down to zero. Not so.

3. It would not surprise me to see the short position increased again sometime this week.

So there you have it, GMHK. You takes your pick and go with it. No in-between I feel with this one.

but for much more interesting reasons I have to say.

It would seem, according to a report today in the Telegraph, that Royal Mail is tendering for the chance of acquiring a government contract, along with the usual suspects of course (Amazon being one) that will culminate in one being chosen as the courier for the "Moon shot project".

Reportedly it will be worth around £750, 000, 000. Thats right...you read correctly -- three quarters of a billion pounds!

Lets us all fervently hope and pray we are fortunate enough to acquire it...

Because if so it will be a real game changer. A real game changer!

Wow, ABRoyalMail, is that really the way you and MrNation "see it"?

What amazing cognitive powers you both possess. To be able to think so subjectively...and then so cleverly project those considerations forward by several years to such a far reaching and highly logical conclusion as that. I do have to say...really is very, very impressive. My God -- such clarity of thought! Such free thinking!

Oh how I wish I had but just one half of your rare and highly desirable brain power...

Its enough to take ones breath away.

P.s If I could but stand alongside of you on the shoulders of those ancient giants!

Now I am fully convinced. MrNation...you are living in Cuckoo land my old son.

And as for your statement: "What I'm saying is that I believe RMG is well placed to come out the other side with record parcels, an upward trend in mail & a great share price that is multiples of where we are now".

Does not need a genius with the foresight of a Nostradamus to see where RMG will be in several years regarding automation.

But a share price in the coming new year multiples of where it is presently? -- TOSH!!

MrNation? More like Fruitster or Redceo.

Multiples my backside! You need your bumps feeling.

P.s one bad update from the CWU...and this stock sinks like a house brick.

Regarding point 1: where do you get your information from in respect to how well (or badly) talks between RMG and the CWU are progressing?

I am a CWU member and talk to my union rep every working night of the week. He, along with everyone else I talk to, is completely in the dark regarding any on going discussions.

What is your source for making these claims? Obviously you must know something?

Cannot argue with your latest comments, Dazpink...coincides with my own train of thought regarding AGM and its future prospects.

Still maintain what I remarked on previously though:-

"But they (VRS, AGM, Directa Plus, Haydale) are little more than research companies at the moment...and companies which don't generate a great amount of revenue either".

Out of all the above companies (I am invested in AGM, Directa Plus and Haydale...used to be in VRS) I favour AGM...and also Haydale for various other reasons also.

Why? Because they (especially AGM) specialize in "dispersals". In my opinion this is where these small companies have the best chance to become self-reliant as far as generating steadily increasing revenue is concerned.

That, and again...only my opinion, is why VRS are struggling. They claim to be the only accredited producer of properly defined Graphene...so what?

Even if this was a recognized fact it would make no great difference to them.

1. They could not produce it in any large amounts even if that was the case...the cost would be prohibitive.
2. The production of "graphene" will come in varying forms; I doubt if everything that benefits from the addition of graphene, on any scale, will have to be graphene in its purest form. Something very close to absolute graphene, which can be produced quickly and a lot more cheaply, will most likely do in many cases.

But producing it in tonnages? A pipe dream for small companies. Anyone, whatever process they devise or use, will need a lot (an awful lot!) of money to mass produce graphene.

have you stopped laughing yet? Your absence today is most noticeable.

What was it you wrote? Ah yes: "network now in place with 60 sales people taking orders,
Next weeks results will prove the doubters wrong".

Apparently not, Dazpink.

According to our in-house "horse-whisperer" RMG planners have now readjusted their original forecasts regarding the volumes for Christmas. Apparently, they now think that instead of a formerly envisioned 55% increase...it is in fact more likely to be a 100% increase.

Obviously fantastic news for all long term investors.

Mind you, it does not say much for the RMG planners...the fact that they could not see the mail doubling when we were as far back as March just about sums up the acumen and foresight they all apparently do not possess.

Take any figure you like...it is simply guesswork.

Suffice to say that this Christmas will simply be off the charts. And after it is all over I defy any long term serving postie to come onto this thread and state they have seen anything like it before. Nobody will have witnessed any time before what is about to come...unless they were employed by the Post Office during WWII that is. Because that is how far back you are going to have to go!

It will be an absolute deluge!! And it has started already. Volumes this week in our depot have exploded! Last night was absolutely ridiculous...and next week, with Amazon despatching all the parcels from its latest Prime Day sale, will be even more chaotic.

When the quarterly figures from the October - December period are announced in the New Year there is going to be audible and collective gasp from the Markets.

What with the steel work now being erected in Daventry for the midlands hub and the Warrington hub to be readied for installation of the new parcel sorting machine in early January...things are now, finally, really starting to look a lot brighter.

Of course, there is still the "fly in the ointment"...and a bl00dy big fly at that: yep -- the union!

Let us all hope that they can all come to a long lasting and amicable agreement. A forlorn hope? Perhaps. But, there again, hopefully...perhaps not.

from 2.21% up to 2.29%.

And still no substantial news from the union...

but there again we are just the membership. As always we will be the last to find out just what is going on...if anything "is" actually going on that is.

Sold most of them all the way down from its former high. I now have only 50,000 shares left at an average of 3.3 pence. Not buying back in...not at the present price...however low. Might reconsider if the price drops to 1.8 ish.

Or to put it another way: I do have not enough shares remaining to be worth losing any sleep over. If they go up to 10 pence a share - fine! If the company goes belly up...so what.

Just a punt, AJ...just a punt.

P.s good luck to all of you who have decided, or are compelled, to stick it out. I hope it comes good for all of you. There is still a chance it may well prove yet to be a winner.

...Completely crap.

The only thing happening here next of any significance will be a fund raise...round about 22 pence I reckon.

I am not saying graphene (or AGM itself) is struggling to find entry points into various interested industries around the world...far from it.

But they (VRS, AGM, Directa Plus, Haydale) are little more than research companies at the moment...and companies which don't generate a great amount of revenue either.

Going to be a few years (several years?) yet before graphene really takes off; and when it does, little companies like the aforementioned will probably get swallowed up by the established mainstream giants.

Great thing to be invested in (as I am) for the future. But that future is not quite now.

has increased back up...now stands at 2.21%. Might just be locking in some profit. Hopefully.

I hope you are right...I should very much like to be wrong about all this.

I am also wondering what this update from the district manager is going to be all about.

Either it will be another bit of useless, uninformative, jingoistic waffle about what a marvellous public company we are with our 500 year heritage and unequalled history of serving the great British public...or, perhaps, just an update, of no great national significance, of a more local nature.

Or maybe it might just be an uncompromising statement from the company pleading poverty and asking for common sense and restraint regarding the CWU's demands? Always best to get in first I find.

And lets face it...the company holds all the cards here.

Well they do after Ward and Pullinger very kindly gave away all their negotiating clout by announcing earlier in the year that we will not strike during the pandemic. So I take it therefore that means any possible striking is out of the question for at least the next three years then?

This is the last roll of the dice for the dynamic duo...and they will be well aware of it. Screw up this time and one of several things will result: a much reduced union membership...a fractured union...or new leadership at the helm. Whichever way you cut the cake, at present...Royal Mail are going to get the lions share.

Looking good for a compromise? How? How do you compromise on an enhanced pay deal demand for the first year backdated to April, and two extra hours off the working week.

How does the union compromise on that? And even if it does...how does the union then get the membership to ratify it? And even if the majority of CWU members do vote yes to some sort of cobbled together compromise how do the union then get a "working majority" in regard to the outcome of this vote? If say 50000 members voted yes and 30000 members voted no would that then be a ringing endorsement of confidence in the CWU leadership?

Easy to resolve? Okay then how would you resolve it? I would be very interested in your answer. Because I don't have one. And what is more important...I do not think RMG or the CWU have one judging by the things are or are not going.