Member Info for Scampthedog

I think you will find that although no dividend will be paid in this financial year, approximately 6.2 pence is expected to be paid out in the 2021 to 2022 financial year...which is next year?!

If you understand my meaning... :) lol

I suspected as much...an old article from last Summer. But that does not change the fact that at some point a pullback will occur.

At some point soon there will be a big sell off. I am sat on quite a considerable profit myself at the moment and are considering just that: selling some for profit.

Or maybe I will just sit tight and buy more shares when the inevitable pullback occurs...as it will most certainly will.

No stock keeps going up without pulling back at infrequent times -- sometimes falling quite dramatically!

After all this share price, at present, is a product of several factors...and all of it based on sentiment...not rock solid fundamentals.

1. The pandemic leading to a massive upsurge in parcels -- but not profit!
2. Far better relationship with the union -- but no settlement as of writing.
3. Massive investment in modernization...and complete restructuring of working practices (terms and conditions) the USO and the "Network to" follow on; but all for the future of course.

And there you have it. Come the other side of Christmas the euphoria surrounding the present s.p and RMG's future prospects will have subsided somewhat...and, if not taken place already, quite a big pullback will occur.

In fact it might just be one of several that will take place over the next several weeks or so.

Most stocks are based on present conditions and prospects. Royal Mails stock is no different.

Was told by several people at work, throughout last week, that: "announcement is imminent...will be made by Wednesday...Friday by the latest".

Then it was: "announcement jointly made from both Keith Williams and Terry Pullinger -- will come on Monday".

When I left work early this morning it was: "heard they have put it back a week...a minor disagreement".

In short, nobody (well, not outside the very inner circle that's for certain) knows exactly what is going on...not for definite anyways.

Other rumours: 6% over three years...and an extra hour off the working week.

I am surprised about the extra hour if true. It always was going to be the biggest hurdle...and I have repeatedly stated so.

You write: "Letters are in huge decline as more and more Millennials use email; Royal mail is also tied down with unions and their issues".

Point 1. Letters have nothing to do with the argument that Royal Mail is now getting back on track and re-focussing its major efforts in other directions...in future letters will be just the icing on the cake. Especially so in times of elections, whether that be General or council, and things, for instance, like referendums.

Point 2. The present discussions will be for a three year deal...as is usually the case with RMG and the CWU. The union will want a little extra for this first year of course...and why not? Most of us are pretty well exhausted right now. And in the next few days it will get even more hectic!

But trying to equate what is now rapidly going from "what once was" to what is rapidly changing to "what will be"...is like comparing chalk to cheese.

Worth keeping this in mind perhaps?

I am saddened by your leaving...you have given me many laughs.

Good luck with Aviva!

Don't make the mistake of ignoring (and its a common enough mistake) that not only is the parcels courier market off the scale at present...but its a market that is only a fraction of the size it will be in several years time -- and it will just keep on growing!

And it won't be solely at the cost of the High Street either. There will always be a High street...it is part of any cultures intrinsic herding instinct: the need to interact and mingle. After all, millions of people (woman -- lol) enjoy the much vaunted pleasures of shopping and coffee...etc, etc. For many people it is not a chore -- but a day out!

But the future will be both...they go hand in hand: High Street and online. They are finally aligning and will become Yin and Yang.

The High Street has already adapted (thankfully) to the many threats and challenges that online ordering has confronted them with by going online themselves...but online shopping is here to stay...and will burgeon in size with every succeeding on-going year on year.

In fact they will compliment each other in a strange sort of contradictory way...however, the truth is that parcel online delivery will just keep on growing at ever increasing and extraordinary rates -- whether that be food deliveries from Supermarkets or face masks from Amazon.

The ones who can execute those orders the quickest -- from collection -- through processing -- to actually delivering...will be the ones who come out on top. They will come out on top because they will capture more and more of these vast yet-to-be-tapped emerging new markets.

With Royal Mail's unequalled "Network", they immediately have a hugely superior advantage. Yes they may well have been last out of the gate...but their super-powerful hound has now just hurtled away, and, ripping up the track...is already running down the competition. It is just a case of terms and conditions...and a little tweaking of the USO of course.

But get everything right: terms and conditions -- an affordable business that makes profit -- new services -- three huge Parcels-Hubs up and running -- Mail Centres modernized -- USO tweaked...and its going to be -- BALL GAME!!

Dump these shares at your peril! Because in four or five years time...£3.06 won't even buy you half a share.

Even though there has been a massive shift upwards to a more upbeat and positive sentiment by the average "Joe Blow", in the last couple of days that is, due to the much excitable heralding's from the many forms of media reporting "salvation in our time" in regard to the covid vaccinations, it will, I suspect...not quite be the "silver bullet" many people hope or believe it to be.

For a big proportion of the older generations, and I am not specifically referring to the so called "Silver-Surfers" here, their shopping habits (indeed many habits) have now changed for the rest of their lives.

Where as once the very same people were reluctant to order some of their many requirements online and have it delivered to their homes, particularly food I might add, now these people are doing just that...a newly adopted habit that, in many commentators opinions, will permanently, to a lesser or greater degree depending on the individual, most likely remain.

In the UK, RMG is perfectly positioned to take full advantage of this...as every postie on here full well knows. After all is said and done, it just comes down to the question of time...and terms and conditions of course.

Once that settlement is made with the CWU, and once the on-going automation is fully completed -- then competitors watch out!

Royal Mail has an unrivalled "Network" in the UK that is unequalled by any competitor...and that includes Amazon.

It is just a matter of time! Keep the faith...and keep your shares...whatever happens regarding the s.p.

In three or four years time this stock will be miles away from where it is now.

If everything can come nicely together without any squabbling or major falling out (a big "IF" I grant you)...we can only guess at where the s.p might actually be in several short years time.

The market for parcels is absolutely gargantuan...and growing exponentially every single year. Get this transformation right...and the sky is the limit...it really is.

£7.00 a share? It may well be far north of that. And if you think that is just pure poppy**** -- then go take take a look at Deutsche Post!

What a Burke!

About as much chance as Redceo's laughable boast of £5.50 in 2020. And don't think I have forgotten about one either, Redceo...because I have not.

The only reason the s.p is where it is now is because of the pandemic; which you could not have possibly foreseen in any case.

This stock will be worth £7.00 a share or more in a few short years...but not in 12 months it won't.

Once those three hubs are up and running at full capacity (processing a possible combined full-capacity total of 2.5 million parcels a day) then the business might start to realize its full potential...but not in 2021...not a snowballs chance in Hell of that.

Three hubs fully automated and running at full or near full capacity -- terms and conditions settled with posties -- an affordable pay deal agreed over the next three years which satisfies all parties: employees, shareholders, and (for the s.p most importantly) city analysts...and the s.p will then reach new heights.

But in 2021? Doubt it. Doubt it very much.

To put it all in perspective. Where I work, volumes are through the roof -- and increasing every night! Like I have stated previously over the last several months: nobody in living memory is going to recall anything of this magnitude come the following next few weeks. Its going to be off the scale!!

But, as OliGarch quite rightly keeps reminding people, massive volumes does not always (in this case most certainly anyway) equate to massive profit.

The only way RMG is going to realize all that potential massive profit is to fully automate its processing. And for that...another three years from now at the very least.

Block in fact is producing huge amounts of gas at this very moment...unfortunately none of it being drawn up from under the ground.

As per usual this board is rammed full of nothing more than wild speculation; which sums the situation up in one word really -- speculation! And thats all it ever was and still remains: pure speculation.

Remarkably enough I find myself in agreement with AJamesW here...all fair comments I would say.

I don't need to chum, you are more than capable of making a complete fool of yourself...

As you have just so ably demonstrated.

Whats so clever about buying at the prices you have just listed? Most of the long term holders on this thread were buying at those prices.

Difference is, most of the long term holders here were not buying at the former highs you were busy buying at...

nor were they consistently insisting that the share price would hit £5.50 in 2020. (laugh my rocks off)

Oh and one other thing. Why is it as soon as your name is mentioned you appear like uncle Fester? Is it perhaps because you still see yourself as some self-appointed monitor of this board?

Thinking further about it, why is it Redceo always turns up in the noticeable absence of MrNation. Funny that is it not? Well, maybe not quite funny -- but certainly peculiar!

Anyhow...the ball is firmly back in your court. I have far better things to do. Like help avert a looming crisis for one.

Duty calls. Nighty night all.

P.s Redceo, why not give us all the benefit of your great foresight and wisdom and attempt to predict a new share price for the end of this year. The "£5.50" is falling a little flat now.

Or perhaps you have modified your outlook on that one somewhat? Whatever.

I mean, er, Redceo?

If you do, then tell him this: 59 days and counting.

And please don't be too hesitant about passing it onto him...he will know exactly what it means.

Got to go now -- left a pan of scouse on! Ta-ra.

P.s As posties we are all about to find out what "Hell on Earth" truly means.

This is indeed good news, oneandonly1 -- and many thanks for providing the link!

This is certainly, if actually not a game changer, an added welcomed bonus for us as shareholders. What is more...the site is appealing in both its presentation and outlay; and also most informative in all its clearly stated detail.

Kudos to the website designer!

I made just recently. A driver I know told me that he delivered to a depot a couple of nights ago. Out of a permanent workforce of approx 134 employees, spread across the various shifts, only 50 were still coming in to work -- 50!!

If anyone needs further convincing of what the effects of a further worsening of the coronavirus pandemic will have on this stock...then this incident should help convince them.

Last night I asked him to reconfirm his story...it was repeated back exact word for word.

Analysts are aware of the impact coronavirus has on any business's workforce of course...but unless you work in that industry day in and day out you cannot fully appreciate the immediate impact.

We, as posies, can; we are the ones who see the full effects of it each and every working day.

This time, we, as a country, are not on the downward slope with a rising barometer. We are on the opposite slope labouring upwards...and this time the temperature is not so obliging.

With every upward step, that temperature is vey slowly falling. And with it our chances of avoiding a massive outbreak are falling also.

Massive volumes coming for Royal Mail undoubtedly...but will not equate to massive profit. Not this time at any rate.

with the basic sentiment you are expressing, wolves, regarding both the CWU leadership and the s.p.

Like you comment: "....... this dispute is not going away any time soon".

Looks like a good deal of profit taking is going on. Or, perhaps, we may well see the short position being reported very soon as having increased back up again quite dramatically.

Be interesting to see if Kretinsky has been offloading any stock.

a couple of nights ago: a split is coming in the CWU membership.

Looks like five point something is coming...back to the level before the vertical take off in August.

Anyone got any concerns or suspicions about what may be going on? And please don't suggest the markets in general...after all, supposedly, at present time, this company is ideally placed to benefit from the covid situation.

Why the steady drip, drip downwards then?

Profit taking perhaps? Rumours of a fund raise? Though I cannot see why that should be the case.

Something is afoot though. But what?

Thanks for taking the time out to reply...much appreciated.

And thanks for providing the link -- it does give one cause to ponder most certainly!

I also would agree when you remark: "I would have thought for the company to be setting up a sensible way to distribute cash by way of a dividend moving forward, was very positive".

Strange how it would appear some investors think the contrary...unless of course the money released might be needed for other things?

Putting aside the very real worry of all the present covid issues (although I am quite sure all shareholders would agree that this should be the prime driving force at this moment in time for both Byotrol's immediate and future good fortunes) I fail to see why the announcement contained in the last RNS should have had such an adverse effect on the share price.

I understand the mechanics of the proposal (re: capital reduction to create distributable reserves) but cannot understand why the market appears to be so apprehensive about it all.

Could anyone kindly enlighten me or offer a possible/likely explanation?