RE: Brinkmanship :-22 May 2020 09:29
For those that missed this excellent post yesterday see below I hope share anorak doesn’t mind me re posting
ShareAnorak
Posts: 3
My take FWIWToday 12:00
I am not fretting, and here is why. I write as a former City investment banker, so I do have a feel for how these these things pan out.
* The underlying value of this company is clear, as various broker's notes have detailed. The demand for palladium and the weakness of the rouble make this a compelling asset, notwithstanding the obvious country risk (which is why a Russian buyer remains the likeliest outcome).
* The shares were suspended in February because there was a risk of a false market following the rogue tweet and the AIM rules required such a suspension.
* At about the same time it became clear that the June 2018 loan agreement with Dmitry Suschov should have been notified to (but not voted on by) shareholders under Aim Rule 13. This relatively minor c*ck-up falls upon the shoulders of the nomad WH Ireland, who have lost interest in AIM clients anyway, so a mutual but amicable separation is agreed, including a reasonable notice period . We have already heard from the company that this is a 'separate' issue from the share suspension.
* So a new nomad is required and we are told is close to being signed up. But the company does not have to end the suspension until the nomad does sign up, which needs to be by the end of this month.
* So given the need to confirm formally the MT flanks approval (which we are also told is in the bag) and the substantive transaction, whatever it is (sale of MT followed by special dividend or sale of the whole company, probably the former given the company tweets about WK), the board quite rightly hides behind the nomad appointment to prolong the suspension as long as possible. Because to return to the market before these things are in place could lead to a short-term fall in the share price, notwithstanding the underlying asset value.
This is my take, and why I am fairly confident that we will hear positive news from the company, but possibly not until the very last moment.