The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Can’t resist one more post in reply to that Hardboy. I own very few books, one of them is the biography of Warren Buffet. I have made many wrong decisions on Ceres and even more on other stocks, but your words of Buffet below are very much why I am now taking a final view to buy more and then ignore the rest for a few years.
The most likely outcome at this point, in my usually wrong view, is that Bosch and Weichei agree to jointly take the company over and becomes a division of their many joint ventures and partnerships along with the joint venture that is delayed.
This of course might not happen, perhaps the $100m investment deal with Shell causes some other outcome.
Either way, the only thing changed today is confirmation of an already identified likely delay until 2024 of a deal signed along with a lot of positive comments about multiple deals.
Yes, aweful year, yes lots of money lost, mostly by me, but don’t pretend what Ceres has is not going to be very lucrative over the next years and they have partners and shareholders with very very deep pockets that are totally invested in the IP for future growth. Good luck, no more from me.
Never have I got a share so wrong or lost so much. Hands up and hope I didn’t sound so positive that anyone lost as a result. I always say they are my opinions and nobody should ever do anything as a result of a bulletin board. For sharing views and ideas. So I lost an absolute fortune (literally here).
Also never have I seen a commercial agreement be “announced, only to still not be inked nearly 2 years later” - unprecedented!
Thr announcement, my view fwiw, and little I would imagine. There isn’t any change and it is very easy to view the announcement as positive as a further delay of a month or two and when they can then start recognising revenue is of no consequence as long as the 3 way venture is signed and the message around that appears that it is still progressing well. Yes too damn slow, yes horrible, but having lost all of the money I have I am now averaging down heavily at these levels. Whatever you do, don’t copy my trades!!!
Chairman purchase always helpful!
I believe divergence from boohoo is a good thing. I see ASOS being long term much better bet than boohoo, but think both are unduly underpriced currently. Once the market goes risk on ASOS with some positive updates on 25th compared to trading statement (what I expect) I think this has a chance of very nice run all the way to Christmas.
I can see one of them buying out one of the others with the third as kingmaker / joint owner. The alternative of deep pockets Chinese investor who can afford £1.4b which I see current takeout price. I don’t think it is imminent, however the quietness of the share volume and the moves by Mike Ashley tell me something is going on behind the curtain.
I am not invested here, however am now going to invest based on.
The consistent barrage like posting of Pedro. He makes fun of those that are positive and completely ignores the Shore Capital assessment of the company in favour of looking backwards at some wrong decisions that most of us have probably made in the last 2 years.
I don’t buy the bashing or shorting of BOO or ASOS currently, I believe the risk reward is strongly in favour of buying the shares on turnaround plans working and accelerating into the Q4 shopping season.
If I am wrong I will take it on the chin, when others are wrong they should ignore negative comments from others and stick to their convictions, the shorts will change as quickly as they came here once the turnaround numbers are evidenced.
On the timing effects you simply need to read AND understand the reading statement. It is very clear and not subject to events, it has already happened. Cash flow as a result of type of sale and tax implications.
On a different note and more interesting. I’m not going to your loads of takeover talk, but I do now believe there is a certainty of consolidation with ASOS and one or two others in the market. I believe MA will be the king maker and why he wants share in multiple companies that will form skme or all of the consolidation. Time will tell!
Did you see my message yesterday saying ASOS and others need to ensure Medium means medium across the ranges to cut returns. Seems H&M read it 🤣
Valued at 0.25 Sales, which are being focussed to profitable orders, weeding out the chaff. 750million spent on automation and distribution capital exp over last few years and 23 million customers. Pass these figures to somebody in the industry like Mike Ashley and see if he is interested to buy some shares, oh hang on a minute…
I think lovely base here, kitchen sink of news and remember the lower free cash flow was timing and type of sales, fully reversed in next period, ie £90m higher than was pencilled in. These sort of headlines are how the city take money from the poor, imho, as they know that in fact the free cash flow is still as was told in May, just delayed by type of sale as explained… place your bets which shorteeee muppet closes first?
Better weather means people go out more generally, going out means more clothes. It’s simple formula that appears to work in any season. Miserable wet winter also worse than crisp cold bright days. You might think bad weather means more purchases of jumpers and coats, of course all part of a big puzzle, but better weather is good for clothes sales no matter the season…
The biggest way to reduce returns, in my view is getting closer and closer for ASOS. Ensure clothes sizing works. 90% of returns I make and likely many others are due to medium in one t shirt fits great but in another feels large or small…
AI, online sizing and camera sizing of customers superimposed onto particular garments etc… so this along with charging more for returns, getting better at what to buy in different sizing and getting read of loss making customers like Waynetta that buy a wedding outfit, spill 3 doses of pudding and skme Cava on it and then send it back, will continue to help margins. Smaller retailers and those like Shein that just want high volume, will ensure this flourishes going forwards.
My repeat call out, this trading after unprecedented July and August weather was a good result. The Indian summer set to return now and I believe September and October will be very strong, leading into the season that matters….I’m loading up before the shorts close
With the May update before the 2 months of unprecedented bad weather in July and August (I don’t remember a summer like it) I am very pleased with how the board has come through it. It bodes very well for the “retail quarter” of B lack Friday and Christmas…
Believe shorts are closing, overplayed hand!!
Careful how you read things here. 00 million lower free cash flow WILL REVERSE in September and October. So yes this years numbers impacted as described but next years will get a benefit of 90m. Very easy to try to spin it badly but means very strong for next period. Slight miss on expected gross margin UPLIFT so again not terrible and low end EBITDA due to sale mix. Reading all this again I am much more encouraged that it is not at a level justifying the recent share price falls and the market cap to cash generation, EBITDA and turnaround here doesn’t add up. Shorts need to be careful here
Headlines point to turnaround working and guidance for full year as was. Speed if inventory to cash days is now industry leading
Some really good positives and few slight negatives. Cash flow little lower due to sales mix, but the new strategy and selling speed of new range is strong. On plan to do what they said and with a model that now works. Lower end of EBITDA but still in range. Hard to call reaction, think the price has already fallen too far for the small negative points and the positive points are very positive. I will buy on any weakness and hold through next period, some very good weather forecast for next weeks which can only help before full year results commentary
If the news is truly good, which I expect, this will go over £5
I believe the US are going to come down hard on Shein, others will follow like sheep, just my view.