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Solgfinger 2 I would expect some news this week given the two high profile events we are presenting at over the next 2 weeks and renewed interest in the Company, a lot of eyes are on Solgold... But then again NM seems to run on his own clock and isn't easily swayed by public opinion....lol

Precious metals summit - presenting 21st at 4:30 MDT / 11:30PM our time. Webcasting link below
http://www.gowebcasting.com/conferences/2018/09/20/precious-metals-summit

Denver Gold Forum -> presenting on Monday 24th but we won't get to see it till 7am MDT / 2pm our time on Friday 28th
https://www.denvergoldforum.org/webcast/

Really do hope the above events are a catalyst for some news flow... GLA and DYOR

Hi Maybach, possibly. I think their move on Nevsun shows they clearly want to grow. The assets (Cascabel plus the sheer amount of prospective tenements) and the new frontier of Ecuador are a different kettle of fish.

NM has said that the assets will be a "company maker" i.e. there is enough within the Solgold portfolio of companies/tenements to create a significant Copper/Gold company. This is very different to a single small exploration company with a couple of promising trench assays.... Hence why I viewed the point within the article that Lundin was willing to spend up to $3 billion to apply to us -> if a PEA can prove that the wider Alpala cluster is feasible for a mine then all the other targets in Cascabel PLUS the ten priority targets will make us even more interesting to the market for M&A...

Just my own thoughts, DYOR of course

No problem, sleep well Fishboy, lol

"TORONTO, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Canada'sLundin Mining Corp is on the hunt for copper mines and projects and willing to spend up to $3 billion on mergers and acquisitions, its incoming chief executive officer said in an interview on Thursday." Perhaps needs to be a bit less stingy to get a piece of us...? :) https://m.nasdaq.com/article/lundin-mining-has-hefty-ma-appetite-for-copper-says-incoming-ceo-20180913-01066

Seeking Alpha

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4206032-showdown-looming-solgold

GLA

Cheers TheItalian, yes the idea is that the further along a project is the higher the per lb valuation as risk decreases and certainty increases.

When the updated MRE and PEA are out that will take us up a stage and valuation.

I would be surprised if there isn't a serious push on Blanca Nieves at the moment to get towards drilling.... as NM has stated before, "go for gold" as a financing option.... which could then provide a significant amount of funding for Alpala...
That would also strengthen the position for NM as, currently, we're not really attributing much to the wider land package nor 8 Porphyr targets nor 2 Epithermal gold projects... All of which, if are found to contain another Cascabel or larger, would act as a multiple to any price attributed to the company

GLA and DYOR

Hi Grundles,

Found the research paper which shows the $0.07 per lb takeover for copper -> it was from Red Cloud Klondike

"In our view, significant upside exists if a bidding war breaks out. Historically, copper projects sell
for ~US$0.07/lb CuEq, this implies a share price of C$0.83 for SolGold."

http://www.redcloudks.com/rcks/solg-the-sharks-are-circling-is-a-bidding-war-about-to-begin

Also googled how to value gold in ground for takeovers using historical takeovers between 1990-2013 (so it is old data but hey, this is just for fun eh...) which says between $45-90 per oz. There are so many variables which won't come out until the MRE update and PEA are released which will give a better idea of the cost to mine. NM has always said c$3b of CapEx savings due to logistical advantages, Hydro power, access to roads, railway water etc... Obviously the cheaper to mine, the more you would assume that one could negotiate for a project.

https://www.911metallurgist.com/blog/how-to-value-gold-deposits

But let's say a takeover price per ounce of gold at the mid-point between $45-90 so $67.50 per ounce x 25m ounces = $1,687,500,000.

85% of that is $1,434,375,000 / 1.7b shares = $0.84 per share or 64p per share.

Add that into my workings for the Copper and you get a total of £1.27 per share...

PLUS.... 2 Epithermal targets
PLUS.... 8 Porphyr targets

Please all DYOR and due diligence, the above is just my workings based on publicly available information....

Been going back through old releases in the absence of a renewed update and, for sh*ts and giggles, re-done my estimates on value of ONLY CASCABEL (not including any of the 10 other priority tenement targets) using the line on slide 3 "Targeting 10m tonnes of copper and 25m oz of gold"

So I know this is just targeting and not confirmed but if we use 10m copper AND 24m oz gold we get a potential in ground value of:

Copper -> 10m tonnes x $5890 per tonne = $58,900,000,000 or $58.9b
Gold -> 25m oz x $1205 per oz = $30,125,000,000 or $30.1b

85% (for our 85% of ENSA) of the above would be $75.65b....

So I know that some people like to use a % of the in-ground value to value a company but all analysts and transactions seem to be done based on the lbs of copper equivalent. I can't be bothered to work out what the gold is in lbs of copper so let's call the $30b of gold as a "Brucey bonus."

So 10m tonnes of copper = 22,046,200,000 lbs of copper (multiply tonnes by 2204.62 to get lbs) so c22billion lbs.

A takeout at $0.07 per lb of copper (from memory) seems to be the mean level from some of the analysts pages of transactions over the past few years (during a pretty decent BEAR MARKET) so...

22,046,200,000lbs of copper x $0.07 = $1,543,234,000 -> 85% of that is $1,311,748,900 / 1.7 billion shares in issue at present and (abracadabra) you get $0.82 per share US$ or c63p per share....

PLUS...... 25m oz of Gold at Cascabel
PLUS...... Two Epithermal Gold targets
PLUS...... Eight Porphyr targets

Hmmm...I wonder why the Majors are interested and we have both BHP and Newcrest on the Share register as well as one of the largest investment houses on the planet...

GLA and please do check my figures and do your own research, I am a PI and wanted to share my own personal perspective to get your take on this....

$25m profit... Bought $10m and ended with $35m. They sold as needed money. I posted links which showed they were starting to lay off people in a cost cutting exercise , DYOR of course

Hawkspear CGP can sell their Solgold shares whenever they like. Don't forget CGP got the Solgold shares as Irwin, Sangha etc swapped their Solgold shares for CGP ones as they didn't agree with NM's approach last summer. CGP wanted to package it up with the ENSA stake to make CGPna takeover target, the Solgold shares were a 'sweetener'

You beat me to it Ohwhatanight, yes Solgold has first refusal if CGP try to sell their 15% in ENSA not if CGP try to sell their Solgold shares. Hence why CGP were doing all of their restructuring to encourage a takeover of the whole of CGP as would be which would circumvent the first refusal agreement.

Interview with Henry Troya, the Vice Minister of Mining for Ecuador. Dated August 16th 2018.

https://gbreports.com/interview/henry-troya

Key bit for me from the horse's mouth:

"Investors are still put off by Ecuador’s windfall tax. Is this going to be eliminated?

The windfall tax for extraordinary earnings was our Achilles Heel since it was established by the Correa administration in 2009. We have seen that, when applied in other countries like Mongolia, it affected the mining GDP very seriously. Our windfall tax actually takes 70% of the extraordinary earnings when comparing the base price of the last 10 years and the commodity price during a high cycle. We introduced several modifications to this tax, yet we saw that the investment community could not understand why this was applied. So, president Moreno finally decided to eliminate it, and the process for this should be complete this year. This move has been very well received by the industry."

Personally, I believe that the move by BHP further supports that Ecuador is beginning to be seen as a place where the level of risk is acceptable and that they believe that this will indeed take place.

GLA and DYOR of course

Thank you Pinot! Will get my alarm set!

Denver Gold Forum - Nick Mather presenting on Monday 24th September, 9am Colorado time. Webcast will be available on the 28th September. Historically has been a decent forum and presentation. Attendee list below, plenty of big players in the Gold space.

http://www.denvergoldforum.org/participating-companies/

Be interesting to hear tone and content given the recent developments.

https://www.denvergoldforum.org/webcast/

GLA

Yes Malachite there is an expectation that CGP will get taken out to get the 15% direct stake in ENSA and 10% of Solgold. I am hopeful it may be a third party not on our radar or BHP to start a takeover battle

It's first refusal for the disposal of the 15% of ENSA shares that CGP own not their own CGP shares, hence why CGP were doing the spin co to encourage a takeover as it was the only way they could realise value for shareholders.

Hi AK, when I watched it I didn't think he was talking about price, more about cost to operate and extract/funding required etc, hence why it needed to be a big major to take this on... Hope I'm wrong and you guys who thought he was talking price tag are right, guess it's a glass half full Vs glass half empty personality that will dictate it eh, lol. Happy weekend all!

Hi Ned, Solgold have first refusal on the 15% in ENSA if CGP try to sell it. Hence why they were packaging CGP for atakeover as that would circumvent the first refusal . Hope that helps, GLA

Q - your journal contact is Chris Temple no? CEO.CA just posted something identical to that from his newsletter!? Please do correct me if I'm wrong....?

Thanks again to @pob, copied and pasted from ceo.ca:

"@pob Further excellent $SOLG $CGP update from the always excellent AFR (behind paywall). #ecuador

Summary - Rinehart has Solgold surrounded on three sides

...If "nearology" is the science of getting close to those with good geology, then Gina Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting is proving particularly adept in the case of rockstar copper explorer SolGold.

The Hancock subsidiary Hanrine Ecuadorian Exploration and Mining SA is SolGold's neighbour on more than 50 per cent of the Cascabel tenement's border, and controls acreage to the east, west and south of Cascabel.

...could Mrs Rinehart be willing to challenge BHP and Newcrest in a super-heavyweight battle for control of SolGold?

"Hancock has a standing policy that it does not comment on commercial matters," said Sophie Mirabella, Hancock Prospecting's general manager of government and media relations.

Ms Mirabella also declined to comment when asked if Hancock owned shares in either SolGold or its joint venture partner in Cascabel, Cornerstone Capital.

Should BHP and Newcrest's creep up the SolGold register ever turn into a full blown bidding war, they may also face competition from the world's biggest copper miner Codelco, which has locked up acreage on Cascabel's north-western border, plus has further tenements within five kilometres of SolGold's eastern and southern borders.

BHP's Ecuadorian acreage is about 12 kilometres south of Cascabel at St Teresa, while Newcrest has tenements that are about five kilometres east and west of Cascabel.

But exposure to SolGold can still be obtained through ASX listed resources house $DGR.AX DGR GLobal, which owns strategic stakes in several ASX listed juniors as well as several privately held and foreign listed companies."

https://www.afr.com/business/mining/rinehart-has-solgold-surrounded-on-three-sides-20180906-h1509s