RE: Sell off of Cascabel20 Sep 2018 16:07
Hi Solgfinger - Here are an amalgamation of two posts i did last week off the back off the Diggers and dealers presentation. All are my own workings and all should DYOR and come to your own conclusions:
"Been going back through old releases in the absence of a renewed update and, for sh*ts and giggles, re-done my estimates on value of ONLY CASCABEL (not including any of the 10 other priority tenement targets) using the line on slide 3 "Targeting 10m tonnes of copper and 25m oz of gold"
So I know this is just targeting and not confirmed but if we use 10m copper AND 24m oz gold we get a potential in ground value of:
Copper -> 10m tonnes x $5890 per tonne = $58,900,000,000 or $58.9b
Gold -> 25m oz x $1205 per oz = $30,125,000,000 or $30.1b
85% (for our 85% of ENSA) of the above would be $75.65b....
So I know that some people like to use a % of the in-ground value to value a company but all analysts and transactions seem to be done based on the lbs of copper equivalent.
COPPER
So targeting 10m tonnes of copper = 22,046,200,000 lbs of copper (multiply tonnes by 2204.62 to get lbs) so c22billion lbs.
A takeout at $0.07 per lb of copper (source: http://www.redcloudks.com/rcks/solg-the-sharks-are-circling-is-a-bidding-war-about-to-begin) seems to be the mean level from some of the analysts pages of transactions over the past few years (during a pretty decent BEAR MARKET) at the advanced exploration stage. If we get PEA and Feasibility and the price per lb of copper goes up, if we get to development it goes up even more (to as much os $0.20 per lb from memory) so...
22,046,200,000lbs of copper x $0.07 = $1,543,234,000 -> 85% of that is $1,311,748,900 / 1.7 billion shares in issue at present and (abracadabra) you get $0.82 per share US$ or c63p per share....
GOLD
Googled how to value gold in ground for takeovers using historical takeovers between 1990-2013 (so it is old data but hey, this is just for fun eh...) which says between $45-90 per oz. There are so many variables which won't come out until the MRE update and PEA are released which will give a better idea of the cost to mine. NM has always said c$3b of CapEx savings due to logistical advantages, Hydro power, access to roads, railway water etc... Obviously the cheaper to mine, the more you would assume that one could negotiate for a project.
https://www.911metallurgist.com/blog/how-to-value-gold-deposits
But let's say a takeover price per ounce of gold at the mid-point between $45-90 so $67.50 per ounce x 25m ounces = $1,687,500,000.
85% of that is $1,434,375,000 / 1.7b shares = $0.84 per share or 64p per share.
Add that into my workings for the Copper and you get a total of £1.27 per share...
PLUS...... Two Epithermal Gold targets
PLUS...... Eight Porphyr targets"
The above is just desk based fun at the moment -> if we can get some value from other projects, if we can get funding secured, if we get hits at Aguinaga etc... All goes up, potentially mu
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