Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Could this recent rise be down to a buyer accumulating with a view to mount a bid on release of poor half yr results when they land in August?

IMO - DYOR

Certainly hope so Garydav2 🤞

*from

Danielh - cheers for the question 👍 - I am not shorting VOD for two reasons:

1. I dont have enough experience to take the kind of risk levels associated with shorting.

2. I dont have deep enough pockets either.

I'm adamant though that VOD will drop backwards a little. The easy bit of signing the 3 merger is done but there's now much work to capitalise on the consolidation benefits but for a period right now there will be higher costs to make that happen. Also Germany is still struggling, it will return to growth IMO but probably not until the approach to Christmas time. I think VOD will dip, stagnate and then experience gentle upwards movement from early 2026.

As such there's just more value to be had (for me) f4om being invested elsewhere right now.

All IMO - DYOR

Iranians opting to significantly escalate with missile strikes.

Hoping no casualties 🙏 - solidarity with USA armed services personell 🇺🇲

Closures of airspaces in some areas.

Primetime51 - Do you own your EZJ shares? Or have you open CFD's on EZJ?

Primetime51 - I had hoped you might ask 👍 - I remain of the view £4 is fairly probable here. Lots of factors converging.

67p for me pls.

Iranian parliament just voted to close the straight of Hormuz.

Frankly, CPI is seriously exposed & weak right now. Much is pinned on investors gritting their teeth and holding on for another 2-3yrs because there won't be a true turnaround prior to that (as its asset fire sales alone which are propping up this shrinking business)...

This could get very ugly for LTH's and those overcommittied on other investments speculatively look set to be the first to have a painful reality check.

IMO - DYOR

Higher oil prices, cost over runs, slowing customer tolerance to high ticket pricing, and prolonged elevated Interest rates in UK.

As I'd explained beforehand, this stock has been consistently over bought... with much ramping/speculative buying! The fundamentals are considerably less promising than the bounceback hype, and so EZJ is going through natural correction of SP -to take it back down to where it should be at this point in time (£4.70p & below).

Sure EZJ will recover in time but the SP was getting two-theee yrs ahead of reality.

All IMO - DYOR

Trisor - as explained there's no need to open any new call centres at all - CPI wasted money opening the SA one.

To make savings they can simply have remote workers, that's what all of the successful businesses will be doing - then again CPI isn't successful so it's little surprising!

Gotta have some sort of poor excuse to make a use of the redundant office they went and procured in South Africa - No need for many of the offices these days; just a laptop, software, headset, and net connection required! CPI should have been leading the way but instead they've been opening pointless and costly new office sites lol!

Curiously quiet Macy has been... 🤔

Trisor - Alternatively it's entirely possible the FY2025 revenues land in ~10-15% lower yet again (FY2024 they were down 14%) because of ongoing Macroeconomic weakness... If we're possibly looking at no more rate cuts till Nov25 MPC then a cut will land much too late to be supportive for CPI.

Add atop overspend on cost cutting, lower than expected cash income from asset fire sales and potential AI teething issues... then it's not difficult at all to see how this stock could indeed plummet backwards again to ~180p in new money (12p old monies).

DYOR - All IMO

Wowsers - Total housing starts over in U.S.A. plunged 9.8% in May. 30% month-on-month fall in multi-family starts drove the sharp drop.

Could this be an early signal of a potential black swan event which Aimmaster2018 was talking about?!

After all they do say... 'when America sneezes the world catches a cold'!

MartinG - It seems unlikely, as I'd have to be wearing something in the first instance for that to possibly occur

One thing about economic black swan events is they 'sort the wheat from the chaff' - and this stock is pure chaff (aside from the component parts AH is selling off through asset fire sales.

LTH's here are going to be caught with their pants down in due course... it's simply a matter of time IMO - DYOR

I've not been caught out with CPI because I've other investments sitting in profit 👌 - I'm not invested in CPI at all.

As the saying goes: "it's easier to fool people, than to convince them that they have been fooled"

The situation with CPI demonstrates this rather nicely.... since CPI is still today a fast shrinking business - Proven as the TU acknowledged "the Group’s adjusted revenue was 4.5% lower in the five months ended 31 May 2025". Not to mention it's likely CPI is still shrinking today too!

So by FY2025 CPI could be smaller than £2bn annual revenues - making it about ~26% of the size it was back in it's 2015 hayday (when calculating using an adjusted for all of the cumulative inflation from 2015, forwards projected to 2025 year end total amount of accumulated inflation).

£4.7bn Revenue in 2015 - versus a Projected £2bn revenue for 2025 - (I used a ~36% cumulative inflation factor 2015-2025 Yr End).

Shocking decline and sorry state of affairs - and there's definitely still very likely potential for many of the following risks to be showing up within future FY2025 results yet:

1. Overspending on cost cutting. The change from

2. Lower than anticipated sales, largely due to macroeconomic turbulence but also the pursuit of margin levels being set too high.

3. Mis-steps wth AI investment (both high spend required & early adoption teething issues/costs/reputational damage).

4. Potential for future asset fire sales to net fewer proceeds than may currently be anticipated (on weakening market conditions).

There's very few upsides IMO here - the first one being the "Total Contract Value (TCV) of £969m" - that landed in a little better than I'd anticipated but was not stellar. The second one was "the one-off benefit from a termination exit fee and deferred income release from a contract in the Mortgage Software business" which naturally won't be repeated so effectively it yet again helped prop up this trading update.

All IMO - DYOR

BadgerB - a serious question from a sensible person, at long last, bravo BadgerB 👏

FY24 forward guidance said "Expect adjusted revenue1 to be broadly in line with 2024 overall"

Today's TU states: "Re-iterating full year 2025 financial guidance of broadly flat revenue"

Some may claim no difference between the two here. I disagree. "Broadly in line" phrase retains open possibility of results being towards being on the upside "broadly flat revenue" phrase is a little cooler in comparison, suggests to me that flat is now the very best possibility on the table. Before their view was it could be upside, and this TU appears to me to now be ruling that possibility out.

There's other phrasing like it dotted through the TU. Best compared sitting both the FY24 results directly alongside today's text and doing a thorough compare + contrast 👌