Member Info for Sausage-dog

Purchase too much for too long a period, you might be left with raw materials you can't sell. Costs £££, upset share holders.
Purchase too little and you won't be able to meet short term future sales demand. Costs £££ lost income, upset share holders.
Where's the sweet spot? They are ordering in advance for X time period and then later modifying/adding to the raw material number based on real sales requests and modelling it forwards etc.
I am trying to estimate the length of period the raw materials would cover their projected sales (X) in their RNS's....

I am still working on future sales forecasting. I would value your input. What I am interested in is:

#NCYT You are now the CEO. You are planning ahead and want to purchase enough raw materials for your main product during a period of uncertain growth. What period of time would you purchase raw materials for, in order to cover potential demand ? Poll in the link below (I can't do this on this BB)

https://twitter.com/Sausagedog19/status/1246813452703760387

Thanks

I've changed from a trading strategy now to a holding strategy. I anticipate an exponential curve for sales over the next 2 weeks. If the SP mirrors the sales as it has done for the last 4 RNS's, then it would be very risky to continue a trading strategy. If you miss the news you'll miss the leg up.
Agree that AJ Bell are terrible.
DYOR

TBP? A TWA correct?

I just can't get me head around why they'd order raw materials for 18 Million tests......

They know the orders and can gauge the interest...

Hang on.. Do you think they might actually sell them ALL...But that's £180 Million. They've only sold 10% of them. 2 things i can think of:

1) They got this all wrong, read the demand incorrectly and ordered too much.
2) They got this right and combined with the 3 UK, 1 German and 1 USA OEM manufacturers they have recently appointed are going to sell them all and that's for starters (say the next 6 weeks).

I've put my money on 2 being the answer. Will find out on monday hopefully. As mentioned, If i'm right the sales figure will start with a 4

SH3, Yes absolutely terrible for us all. Lots of lives will be lost and what we know as a cultural/social basis of our society will be destroyed for a long term to come..
Let's just hope that companies like NCYT can do their best to help the clinicians and patients get the timely diagnosis and treatment as they all deserve. Quiet sobering really.

I think it's a massive battle we are in now with this virus. Life and death stuff for many unfortunately.

I could be wrong about this and Lidco get loads of orders. I've been wrong many times before. There will be loads of money thrown at this current problem by the government. As the major of new york said last night...."i am not putting a dollar amount on human life". If we have the same attitude hopefully the government will provide plenty of all the best kit for all the sick patients.
GLA.

Guys, lidco is a cardiac output monitoring device and needs an arterial line to function. It uses a theory called "pulse contour analysis" to assess beat beat changes in cardiac function and the response to fluid challenges from the arterial line trace.
You will only find arterial lines in patients who are in intensive care or having major surgery. These are not useful for other clinical areas such as GP practices.
As i said, It's a good bit of kit, it works, the company is helpful and there is no doubt a market for it. I just don't think that we will need 1000's of them like we do ventilators so I don't think it will boom big time. They will sell more than previously no doubt on the back of COVID i'm just not seeing massive orders.
Good luck all.

Yes. I've used the LIDCO monitor.
We prefer our first line cardiac output monitor as the oesophageal doppler version however it's from a competitor. We do have a LIDCO machine for patients who have coagulopathies where we will use the LIDCO. It is less invasive so has a lower incidence of bleeding complications in coagulopathic patients compared to an invasive oesophageal probe so there are instances where we'd go for this first.
With regards to monitors, all ITU patients are monitored as standard in Intensive care. The LIDCO is however an additional monitor. IMHO there's limited space for another one. It's a good bit of kit and has been around a while. I just don't think it's a hidden gem thats going to boom off the back of the current COVID situation. DYOR.

What gap. 1 hr chart:

8-9 am: High 183.0p
9-10am: Low 181.6p

They cross. Where's the gap then. You missed the boat by any chance?

They've been around for years so I don't think they are under the radar. LIDCO make cardiac output monitors not ventilators. COVID causes respiratory failure which responds well to patients being proned. Due to the constant bedside patient turning the last thing you want is an additional large cardiac monitor present. Cardiac failure can occur in these cases but it's the bulky kit that gets in the way by the bedside that limits the mass uptake here in ITU's
Sure they may sell the extra bit of kit on the back of ITU cases but I doubt this will be a COVID stock that will sell 000's. The monitors just get in the way and there's enough going on in a small bed space with people wearing full PPE in a packed and overcrowded Intensive care to need non essential bits of kit.
Go and use one or look at one and you'll get the issue.

Nice one greg.
I've noticed that there tends to be a 5p rise in the share price between lunchtime and 4.30pm on a day before a big RNS. On that basis £2 today looks good.

It's too early for that famous line......Maybe after lunch....Saying that it tends to be true from previous RNS release days.

Ok. Just checked level 2. It's dropped because of 2 large sells. One for £10.5K and the other for £9K. There is a smattering of small buys after this but nothing in comparison to the large sales.

Just looking at the chart...Nice consolidation on the chart. No gaps this morning. MACD and RSI getting to a level where we should continue this mornings rise. We have almost got rid of the 10%ers from yesterdays 170 entry level. 3 Vs 2 on level 2. Once we finish this period of consolidation in the next 1/2- 1hour, id' expect us to be off north again. All looking good IMHO.
No advice intended. DYOR.

You are welcome Mike.
Looks like 10 percenters leaving the bus at present. Probably have some consolidation at this level and then off we go again. There will also be FOMO later this afternoon so whoever called out £2+ early this morning looks spot on.
DYOR.

I count 19 buys, 2 sells from the last trades on Level 2. MM's now on 185. This is only going up today IMHO.

1million shares bought
0.5million shares sold
9% down. Same story as yesterday where there were twice as many buys to sales. Absolutely corrupt.

400k more buys than sells today yet a 6% drop. The SP looked like it was held all afternoon around 183 by the MM's
Why? Any guesses.

We have sold £1M of tests to the UK from circa £20M sales. That's 5% of the total sales market so far. If we lost the entire UK market i'd expect a 5% drop in our share price. We are 7% down today which to me is a massive over reaction over this. They will still be buying from us..
News to come from the USA, argentina, india and other countries. More sales, more £, possibly another test or takeover to come.....
I'm loading up this morning as I feel that we will not be at this low a SP for long. DYOR