Member Info for sankeys

I thought that about loan to equity, but if they do go this way as one whole lot, then they take the shares at 125% of 10 day VWAP, so in effect like a placing at 26p, if they are to profit they would need it above this, yes dilution but any selling would have to be at a far better SP.

To be realistic, given they are going to RNS this week or Monday on the $5m loan, they are not going to communicate via informal channels sooner, we do need to wait for the RNS, which hopefully includes a broader update.

Is when the 10 day VWAP ends for the loan facility IF it’s not going to be repaid, not sure for circa 20m shares they would have gone to the length we’ve seen, however stock on loan increased in January. If this VWAP is a factor the benefits are in 2 days the pressure will be lifted off the SP and they are excused at 25% to this VWAP, so to sell they need north of 25p if they want to maintain original capital plus 7% interest.

Won’t help sentiment for Nigeria related companies, if you haven’t, have a read of the RNSs, shocking set of events if you are a shareholder.

https://twitter.com/savannahpetrol/status/1216736255616192514?s=21

Maybe the reason for delay in gas news?

A lot of those trades are RPT, reference price transaction, impossible to know if buy or sell, most done outside Aim on Irish platform - basically iis shifting shares, hopefully this soon stops and normal trading starts.

Looking for,
Uganda farm out update
Ghana gas off take improvements
Guyana drilling program for 2020
Proposed asset sales of non core assets.
Increased H1 2020 hedges after recent spike in oil
Update on CEO recruitment

We need those top four to be positive, evidence at moment suggest they will, it’s whether they are looking to spin a positive story or are still in behind sand bags mode.

Long term agree, if it were to fund Niger first oil it would be a reasonable action, however AK shouldn’t underestimate fatigue from both private and ii investment if we go through another period of selling. It’s clear from recent action that some iis are losing patience, AK knows full well how long this deal took to complete, he needs to be wary of effecting any potential near term appreciation with further dilution that we know will be sold off.

We are in the 10 day VWAP calculation for the $5m if they decide to pay in equity, it’s not the only calculation they can use but may be a factor.
I thought today may be a turning point but the selling continues and shorts have increased.

I’ve just read again the loan detail, given the SP hasn’t appreciated since the date of loan it’s likely that if it’s conversion of shares they would opt for the last option - 94% of VWAP of any of the 7 business days proceeding a conversion note, and they can convert in tranches - so could sell into the next conversion to take the VWAP lower. Whilst it’s only circa 20m shares, given the average volumes it would kill the SP for a couple of months on low volumes. If they take the additional $5m also then it would be an absolute **** storm to put it mildly.

And of course an additional 19m share overhang which the SP cannot take at present - if they go the shares route I won’t keep holding waiting for that to clear. They easily have enough cash to pay it, or should do.

Surely the Link shares are already being sold down? That’s what all the selling has been the last few weeks? They are announcing what money is being given back on the 13th Jan, if they have been selling you would think they would want out by then.

He does come across as a bit of a an anchor.

Link?

Just to add Neil has no qualifications to give anyone advice and the consensus amongst brokers who are is a higher SP than it’s currently at.

The words drill cuttings and blow out are quite key.

Off soon to stay away till Boxing Day, enjoy, forget about shares for a few days and ignore the noise.
January = 100p

We know it will be 100p plus by January, let the others sell, we’ll get DBNO to buy. Guyana is to TLW what Eon was to PMO - the game changer.
Everyone should look at the wider map, Tullow also have plays in Suriname where the Apache well is.

Have not just invested $7.5 billion on one well, Carapa is in the same oil source and Total have the data.

You’re misleading again the higher COS was for Jethro and Joe, Carapa was a different play with a lower COS.