Member Info for sankeys

how do we know they didnt pay off the debt? Im not saying they didnt, but a PI called the company and they said they wouldnt RNS if they did. Anyway i guess we will soon find out if it has been due to the 7 day vwap.

most O&G companies are 20-25% off their January highs as Brent has slipped over $10, so the fall from 20/21p has been market and not company specific.
Its harder here as there had already been a fall due to legacy bondholders exiting.
I bought more at 17.5, probably buy one lot more if it goes near 15p. I hope it doesnt!

AIIM have not invested to stand still or be part of some lifestyle investment. The economics are bullet proof in terms of growth.

In Nigeria, estimated peak energy demand is estimated to be over 20,000MW, but this is only met with less than 5000MW of peak supply, Lawson said.

“This highlights the power demand gap on the national grid, which is partially due to the unavailability of gas to some of the existing generation plants.

“AIIM’s investments will help to bridge this gap, creating positive impact outcomes for businesses, communities and individuals on the ground.”

That bulk of trades at 17.50 were all algo trades, given the volume and the SP not moving you would argue they are ii to ii, given we know this has been happening with legacy seven note holders exiting. Before this kept the SP circa 20p to 21.5p, something has changed in last week, two possible reasons are
1. the addition of PI sells as they get impatient for news and low SP.
2. the bulk sell that has been worked thru since November is nearly over, so if they wanted an average of 20p and they got alot higher, they can sell the remainder at below as they maintain the av.

ive discounted the $5m loan effect given the conversation the shareholder had with IR, but obviously would be a driver if theres a convert to equity.

Is there really that many people who have margin with Savp? Given how the bid/ask have been manipulated its impossible to know whats been the buy/sell ratio. Also if ii is a market maker they are the opposite to us, they sell on the ask and buy on the bid.

Buys reported very late, that must have been the reason for the auction extension at 16.35.

AK has stated in the near term the focus is on organic growth in Nigeria and Niger - he was at a summit for UK/Africa trade hosted by the Prime Minister so of course he was open to further investment in Africa.
In terms of Niger, there is no current production or drilling, so there is no bad news unless the program is delayed. Nigeria we have had the RNS, production is up, 2P is up and there was $40m paid off in debt.
The SP decline is a worry, buts it’s been on low volume except for the 2 days of big buys.
There’s a clear overhang from the 120m issued shares in November which has caused the decline from deal conclusion.

Someone is more confident than us at moment! Let’s hope it’s a director, that would be a boost.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/pidgin/amp/tori-51203355

Thanks for that, so they are implying that they haven’t gone the equity route, I agree that in normal times a RNS is not needed, but with low confidence and a declining SP I think on this occasion they should have done IF they have repaid in cash.

NB - sorry yes, precede, you are correct.

It’s not great with SP at moment, but as of yet nothing has changed in fundamentals. There’s been an overhang from legacy note holders and we may have some managing of the book due to the $5m loan which would be in the 7 day lowest VWAP now I guess.
Niger plan will come out with first oil, further explo and CPR, maybe with a JV. Has the JV partner took the relinquished blocks also?
Everyone agreed the Nigeria update was very positive in terms of 2p, cash flow etc.
Additional gas contracts will be done both private and public.
It’s all still there, we just have to wait for updates and then decide, but I can’t see them really being any different to what we expect, the JV partner is probably the biggest variable.
There will be no takeover at this point of the value curve.

Look at every trade for today, then come back and say the mid price was 20p, there’s a difference between real and reported. Forget what the spread is and track the trades. Buys at that time we’re going thru at 22.40, sells at 22.20, straight after the 500k the next sell, a 100k went thru at 22.0, bid dropping after the large trade.

It was a sell, looks like North are still selling, they can keep on for a few weeks whilst we wait for first week of Feb.

I don’t think those shares could be issued or traded without a RNS, I don’t see how they could be forward sold as they are not existing holders. Also to convert as of the maturity date was option 2, where it’s 10 day VWAP at 125% not 7 day at 93%. Friday would have been the first day, so to send the letter, issue the shares and sell 2.5m of them on the open market using option 3 I would say is impossible, and still there would have to been a RNS on Friday.
One scenario if it’s linked to the $5m is that they hedged their convertibles by shorting, we know short positions increased in December, and the AT trades last couple of days have been buys, which could be shorts closing. Again I’m not sure if that’s as typically the ii would get issued the news shares and the sell the equity whilst buying back the short giving a neutral outcome and liquidity to exit.

That might just be them out.
Please...

Similar to December there seems to be a massive ii to ii trade going through. Linked to loan? Don’t think so, shares not issued yet if that’s what’s going to happen and they haven’t got any to forward sell.
Hopefully someone’s clearing out the last of note holders and the SP can trade free.

Yes and gas contracts, but that doesn’t mean they are about to RNS them tomorrow. Any informal communication via mail etc can not disclose any material information, if the CPR isn’t finished or the gas contracts not signed, there is no news.

Why are we expecting a RNS?, apart from the loan pay back. They said the would get back to A. in a certain timeframe, that’s all. Hopefully we will get one but you’re all setting yourself up for another failed deadline that was never there in the first place.

The entities who bought the note holder shares of 57m didn’t do it to make a loss, they must have been given a carrot or two.
At some time the Niger update will come and news on gas deals, it can turn round quickly, more so if a JV is announced at same time.

Yes if they opt c then it’s going to be around the 20p price it is now, maybe that’s why the SP is down here, maybe they want to hedge them, I’ll just be glad when the loan is closed. I’d rather they pay cash back but I do have a feeling they will want to keep liquidity and convert in equity.